Eden-Monaro – Australia 2022

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Kristy McBain, since 2020.

Geography
South-Eastern NSW. Eden-Monaro covers parts of south-eastern New South Wales surrounding the ACT, along the south coast and in the Snowy Mountains. Major centres include Bega, Yass, Tumut, Queanbeyan and Cooma.

History
Eden-Monaro is an original federation seat, and because of its position in the corner of the state, it has always covered mostly the same area. The seat was a safe conservative seat for the first few decades, but it has been a marginal seat since the Second World War, and was considered a ‘bellwether seat’ from 1972 until 2016, having always been won by the party of government for the last four decades until it swung to Labor in 2016.

The seat was first won by Austin Chapman of the Protectionist Party in 1901. Chapman held the seat until 1926, during which time he served as a Minister in Alfred Deakin’s governments. He later returned to the ministry under Stanley Bruce from 1923 to 1924. Chapman died in 1926, and John Perkins won the seat in a by-election.

Perkins was defeated by John Cusack (ALP) in 1929, but won it back for the United Australia Party in 1931. Perkins served in a number of ministerial roles under Joe Lyons, and was defeated in 1943 by Allan Fraser of the ALP.

Fraser served in the seat for over twenty years, including a period as a senior Labor member in opposition. Fraser was defeated by Dugald Munro in the 1966 landslide but regained the seat in 1969. He retired from Eden-Monaro in 1972.

Bob Whan (ALP) held the seat from 1972 to 1975, which was the beginning of Eden-Monaro’s period as a bellwether seat. Whan was defeated in 1975 by Murray Sainsbury (LIB). Jim Snow (ALP) defeated Sainsbury in 1983, and he was defeated by Gary Nairn (LIB) in 1996.

Nairn became a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Howard government and then served as Special Minister of State. Despite the seat being held by a government MP for so long, Nairn was the first member for Eden-Monaro to be a minister since John Perkins in the 1930s.

Nairn was defeated in 2007 by Mike Kelly (ALP), a former senior lawyer with the Australian Army.

Kelly was re-elected in 2010 but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy. Kelly returned to win the seat back in 2016, and was elected to a fourth term in 2019.

Kelly resigned his seat in early 2020 for health reasons. The subsequent by-election was narrowly won by Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain.

Candidates

  • James Holgate (Sustainable Australia)
  • Maxwell Holmes (Liberal Democrats)
  • Kristy McBain (Labor)
  • Greg Butler (Democrats)
  • Darren Garnon (United Australia)
  • Jerry Nockles (Liberal)
  • Vivian Harris (Greens)
  • Toni McLennan (Informed Medical Options)
  • Andrew Thaler (Independent)
  • Boyd Shannon (One Nation)
  • Assessment
    Eden-Monaro is an extremely marginal seat. It’s likely that McBain will be starting to build up her own personal vote but she hasn’t held the seat for very long.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Mike Kelly Labor 38,87839.2-2.7
    Fiona Kotvojs Liberal 36,73237.0-4.3
    Pat Mcginlay Greens 8,7158.8+1.2
    Sophie Wade Nationals 6,8997.0+7.0
    Chandra SinghUnited Australia Party2,7482.8+2.8
    David William SheldonIndependent2,2472.3+2.3
    James HolgateIndependent1,8831.9+1.9
    Thomas HarrisChristian Democratic Party1,1571.2-0.7
    Informal7,2466.8+0.5

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Mike Kelly Labor 50,47250.8-2.1
    Fiona Kotvojs Liberal 48,78749.2+2.1

    2020 by-election result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Fiona Kotvojs Liberal 36,38838.3+1.3
    Kristy McBain Labor 34,07335.9-3.3
    Trevor Hicks Nationals 6,0526.4-0.6
    Cathy Griff Greens 5,3855.7-3.1
    Matthew StadtmillerShooters, Fishers and Farmers5,0665.3+5.3
    Michael BalderstoneHEMP2,1542.3+2.3
    Karen PorterIndependent1,2181.3+1.3
    James JanssonScience Party1,0711.1+1.1
    Joy AngelSustainable Australia9441.0+1.0
    Dean McCraeLiberal Democrats6510.7+0.7
    James HolgateIndependent6360.7-1.2
    Narelle StoreyChristian Democratic Party6140.7-0.5
    Riccardo BosiIndependent5130.5+0.5
    Jason PotterAustralian Federation1700.2+0.2
    Informal6,8326.7-4.2

    2020 by-election two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Kristy McBain Labor 47,83550.4-0.5
    Fiona Kotvojs Liberal 47,10049.6+0.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Eden-Monaro have been split into five parts. Polling places in the Queanbyean urban area have been grouped together, and the rest has been split between:

    • East – Bega Valley and Eurobodalla council areas
    • North – Queanbeyan-Palerang and Yass Valley council areas
    • South – Snowy Monaro council area
    • West – Snowy Valleys council area

    Labor won a slim majority in both 2019 but there was some variety in where those votes were concentrated. Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, north and in Queanbeyan in 2019 and in 2020, with the Liberal Party winning in the south and west.

    Labor’s vote was highest in Queanbeyan in 2019 and higher in the east in 2020.

    The Nationals vote was lowest in the east and generally highest in rural areas, but went up substantially in Queanbeyan in 2020. The Greens vote was highest in the east and north.

    2019 booth breakdown

    Voter groupGRN primNAT primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
    East11.22.454.315,40415.5
    Queanbeyan9.55.356.314,52214.6
    North11.410.552.510,75310.8
    South8.013.543.15,2585.3
    West3.68.747.74,0564.1
    Pre-poll7.47.349.441,05641.4
    Other votes9.46.846.58,2108.3

    2020 by-election booth breakdown

    Voter groupGRN primNAT primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
    East7.01.057.711,90212.5
    Queanbeyan6.49.455.311,21411.8
    North7.89.951.39,63710.2
    South4.58.143.64,8045.1
    West2.36.048.03,3973.6
    Pre-poll5.06.648.840,85243.0
    Other votes5.84.846.813,12913.8

    Election results in Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

    Election results at the 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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    29 COMMENTS

    1. Unless Barilaro runs, Labor will hold this. Even then it wouldn’t be a done deal because most of the lib branch volunteers won’t turn up for the Nats .
      Angus Taylor won’t like it but eventually E-M will have to include Goulburn, & Queanbeyan….again !. Then its game over.

    2. I disagree. Labor is not holding onto any seat with less than a 2% margin. You are suggesting this election will be close it will not be. I predict the coalition will win a 54-46% victory nationwide at the next election because of how appalling Albanese has been.

      It’s not because I “want” it to happen. It’s because I know it will. If you apply the same error the polls got last time it would translate to an increased majority.

      Only Kotvojs could blow this for the Libs

    3. In relation to Labor losing all seats less than 2%, do you think Anne Aly in Cowan and Libby Coker in Corangamite will both lose? If COVID reaches EM McBain could hold.

    4. My base starting assumption for seats is that the 2019 swings will be repeated, which would have Labor losing here (and Marko, holding Corangamite and Cowan, which also lines up with my predictions about WA and Vic being good for Labor)

      However the one consistent thing through the complexity of this seat is that they’ll hang on to a good local MP. Haven’t been keeping up with McBain since she got elected but things seem fairly good.

      One to watch, as usual.

    5. Not a bad starting point John. Government hasn’t fundamentally changed personnel, policy or style since 2019 and ALP so far only tinkered. Swings will probably line up in the same order, just the median point will be determined by national factors.

      I wonder what Government is cooking up in south east Melbourne this time around since going again on car parks might look a bit obvious….

    6. If you do this the result is
      LIB 86 ( Stirling destroyed, gain EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, Indi, lose Chisholm, Higgins)
      ALP 60 (Hawke created, lose EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, win Chisholm, Higgins)
      GRN 1
      IND 3 (inc Mayo, lose Indi)
      KAP 1

    7. Daniel
      2%?. Very neat. Instinctively i sense a far more chaotic outcome !. Whilst you rightly condemn Albanese’s performance as “appalling’. The PM’S has been no better.. The difference is that voters made no investment in Albo. They didn’t vote for him. Do you believe that voters simply voted AGAINST BS !?. Labor do seem to hold this view. This comfortable narrative has reassured Labor that they have no need to reform, or renew.
      I will give a “report card” review on the PM’s performance, in the Cook thread. The conclusion will be that Morrison has failed to ever accept any failure. The most lethal fault in leadership. Inability to accept failure is the greatest weakness of the achiever/performer type 3 personality .
      Mc Bain has the same fixation, however her “story” will look good, & the voters have made a choice to back her, & they will need to feel “unseen” for some time in order to choose again. For awhile Mc Bain will tell everyone what they want to hear. It takes time for this kind of deceit to be exposed.
      If there was so little momentum for a change twice in the last 2 years where will it come from this time?
      i wil respond further on the Shortland thread.
      cheers WD

    8. Shorthand hunter and Blair are labor seats..
      Higgins likely to stay liberal. Most of the others were labor held even in 2013. Even on state figures dobell is labor held. The assumption of a 2% anti alp swing is similarly a bad guess.I suspect labor will have a swing in Wa to them and would be unlucky not to gain something especially if ken wyatt retires

    9. Tom, Labor is not winning anything with Albanese. I personally don’t like Morrison and they didn’t at the last election either but the party won because Shorten was worse, People don’t vote for someone because they like them but because they see them as the lesser of the 2 evils, Morrison so far in my judgement isn’t as evil as Albanese

      Albanese has 0 charisma and has 0 character that he needs to win over the quiet Australians, And spoiler, I am a quiet Australian. Albanese is the Australian version of Jeremy Corbyn who was trashed at the last UK election.

    10. I’m an even quieter Australian and it’s for this reason I’m predicting Adam Bandt flawless victory and God-Emperor

    11. Daniel
      Albanese is not Corbyn; Albanese is very obviously a Starmer- an easily irritated mid-50s wishy-washy moderate-left politician who makes his closest colleagues (Plibersek, Wong, Chalmers to name a few) look like the leadership potential they’ll never live up to because of the damn unions. Well, maybe apart from Chalmers.

    12. Ryan Spencer
      Perhaps you and all the other “Chalmers fans” ought to read my post on the Rankin thread ?
      Next Labour PM will most likely be Clare O’Neil.

    13. Ryan Spencer
      Ah Yes Tanya. The “Emily’s List” standard bearer. So it will be an achievement of “diversity” when we have 50% female MPs ?. How about a diversity of personality types ?. Talents ?, Abilities? Views?. Something, anything to (truly) respect, & admire.
      Tanya , KK, Michelle Rowland, Ann Aly, Kimberly Kitching, Annika Wells etc the labor women stars. Many with sound qualities, & yet all very similar . Achiever/Performer personality type 3 fixation. A monoculture of winning at any cost, just like the PM. Not enough difference for me. I expect a whole lot more.
      ive always admired Julie Owen, Kitching, & respected O’neil. Do you not see the difference ? Others show promise.

      Tanya shares the PMs fatal flaw as a 3 . She is incapable of accepting or acknowledging failure.

    14. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/edenmonaro2022/comment-page-1#comment-753717

      Albanese needs to win over swing voters, not people with evident strongly pro-Coalition opinions such as yourself. Also, people who post strongly pro-Coalition opinions on psephologically blogs outside election campaigns are not “quiet Australians”, they are at a minimum “medium volume Australians”. There is no doubt a significant segment of “quiet Australians” who usually agree with such Coalition supporters but that does not make

    15. It’s been reported in the Saturday Paper, The Footy Show’s Erin Molan is a chance of being preselected in the Labor marginal seat of Eden-Monaro for the Liberals. I’m skeptical that it’s going to happen, and if it would work as these celebrity candidates rarely do. Molan is the daughter of Liberal senator Jim Molan.

      It appears less concerned about the possible Liberal preselection of television personality Erin Molan in the seat of Eden-Monaro, believing incumbent Kristy McBain can hang on.

      https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/20/election-map-the-seats-where-it-will-be-won/163732680012921#mtr

    16. PN
      Interesting. But very unlikely. Why would Erin take such a massive pay cut ?. The only reason (i can think of) would be to get automatic pre selection next time (2025 on different boundaries). That might make some sense.
      Any one thinking McBain hasn’t got this stitched up, is dreaming. Only Albo could stuff this up,(for her) with one of his glib, stupid, & forgettable “zingers”!!.
      Albo has become the “Albatross” of the ALP !.

    17. Ryan Spencer
      you know the saying ” Politics is hollywood for ugly people”!! Maybe you are correct about the celebrity rankings too ?.

      FL
      very, very clever. One of your best ever comments . Had to google finnistride..! However Wilson is a 3 fixation & Vanity is their passion, whereas Barnaby is an 8 fixation & revenge is their passion. So i don’t see Barnaby ever looking after himself in a metrosexual way. He just isn’t that kind of bloke

    18. Its been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald that Erin Molan has declined the Liberals offer to stand as a canidate in Eden-Monaro.

      Apparently her father senator Jim Molan name is reportedly in the mix. I would be suprised considering his age and his health problems he would run in the hustle and bustle of a marginal seat campaign. Previous canidate Fiona Kotvojs name was also mentioned as a possible option.

    19. Molan is very likely to retire from politics.
      He’s been absent from parliament for a long time now and I honestly don’t see him returning.

    20. Ryan Spencer
      it’s possible that you’re correct, & i agree that is the obvious reality. However Molan is a (politically rare ) enthusiast / epicure TYPE 7 personality . They have far too much energy to step back easily. Does he look or sound like someone wanting to take it easy ? Ask him if he has another 3years (at this level) in him !?. I think you can imagine the answer (easily) !!.
      cheers wd

    21. @ Ben, then you would have thought the Coalition would have won at the by-election, especially given Kelly quit because he was sick of Labor? Also isn’t this bushfire territory?

    22. Ftb, Labor did suffer a 0.5% or so swing against them at the by election and even though the new liberal candidate is unknown or low profile, I reckon this is still a toss up seat that has a slight (maybe <30%) chance of being lost to the liberal party

      Also I doubt Labor would be able to achieve anything more than 2% margin post election if they do achieve a swing in their favour.

    23. In an election where the Labor 2PP vote in NSW dropped by 2.4%, there was only a swing of 2.1% here… and then Labor won the by-election, establishing the new member. And the by-election happened during the Coalition in NSW was in the middle of a strong period (their 2PP was higher than it was at 2019 election).

      Now the Coalition is a lot lower on 2PP. I don’t see how they pick this up, given the circumstances. The new Labor MP has had nearly 2 years to build up momentum into a sophomore surge, and the Coalition is generally on-the-nose.

      Could the Coalition manage to take it? Yes. But it’s not in the toss-up zone. It’s more in the “there could be an upset” zone.

    24. Agree with Glen. This seat definitely isn’t done and dusted for Labor, but they’re definitely favorites. Don’t see how it falls unless the polls are even more wrong than last time.

    25. As a resident in the electorate the impression I get is the Liberals are running dead. We have only one letterbox drop from them and as I drive around the local area there are none of their signs in gardens. On the other had Labor appears to be very active.

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