Eden-Monaro – Australia 2022

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  1. Unless Barilaro runs, Labor will hold this. Even then it wouldn’t be a done deal because most of the lib branch volunteers won’t turn up for the Nats .
    Angus Taylor won’t like it but eventually E-M will have to include Goulburn, & Queanbeyan….again !. Then its game over.

  2. I disagree. Labor is not holding onto any seat with less than a 2% margin. You are suggesting this election will be close it will not be. I predict the coalition will win a 54-46% victory nationwide at the next election because of how appalling Albanese has been.

    It’s not because I “want” it to happen. It’s because I know it will. If you apply the same error the polls got last time it would translate to an increased majority.

    Only Kotvojs could blow this for the Libs

  3. In relation to Labor losing all seats less than 2%, do you think Anne Aly in Cowan and Libby Coker in Corangamite will both lose? If COVID reaches EM McBain could hold.

  4. My base starting assumption for seats is that the 2019 swings will be repeated, which would have Labor losing here (and Marko, holding Corangamite and Cowan, which also lines up with my predictions about WA and Vic being good for Labor)

    However the one consistent thing through the complexity of this seat is that they’ll hang on to a good local MP. Haven’t been keeping up with McBain since she got elected but things seem fairly good.

    One to watch, as usual.

  5. Not a bad starting point John. Government hasn’t fundamentally changed personnel, policy or style since 2019 and ALP so far only tinkered. Swings will probably line up in the same order, just the median point will be determined by national factors.

    I wonder what Government is cooking up in south east Melbourne this time around since going again on car parks might look a bit obvious….

  6. If you do this the result is
    LIB 86 ( Stirling destroyed, gain EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, Indi, lose Chisholm, Higgins)
    ALP 60 (Hawke created, lose EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, win Chisholm, Higgins)
    GRN 1
    IND 3 (inc Mayo, lose Indi)
    KAP 1

  7. Daniel
    2%?. Very neat. Instinctively i sense a far more chaotic outcome !. Whilst you rightly condemn Albanese’s performance as “appalling’. The PM’S has been no better.. The difference is that voters made no investment in Albo. They didn’t vote for him. Do you believe that voters simply voted AGAINST BS !?. Labor do seem to hold this view. This comfortable narrative has reassured Labor that they have no need to reform, or renew.
    I will give a “report card” review on the PM’s performance, in the Cook thread. The conclusion will be that Morrison has failed to ever accept any failure. The most lethal fault in leadership. Inability to accept failure is the greatest weakness of the achiever/performer type 3 personality .
    Mc Bain has the same fixation, however her “story” will look good, & the voters have made a choice to back her, & they will need to feel “unseen” for some time in order to choose again. For awhile Mc Bain will tell everyone what they want to hear. It takes time for this kind of deceit to be exposed.
    If there was so little momentum for a change twice in the last 2 years where will it come from this time?
    i wil respond further on the Shortland thread.
    cheers WD

  8. Shorthand hunter and Blair are labor seats..
    Higgins likely to stay liberal. Most of the others were labor held even in 2013. Even on state figures dobell is labor held. The assumption of a 2% anti alp swing is similarly a bad guess.I suspect labor will have a swing in Wa to them and would be unlucky not to gain something especially if ken wyatt retires

  9. Tom, Labor is not winning anything with Albanese. I personally don’t like Morrison and they didn’t at the last election either but the party won because Shorten was worse, People don’t vote for someone because they like them but because they see them as the lesser of the 2 evils, Morrison so far in my judgement isn’t as evil as Albanese

    Albanese has 0 charisma and has 0 character that he needs to win over the quiet Australians, And spoiler, I am a quiet Australian. Albanese is the Australian version of Jeremy Corbyn who was trashed at the last UK election.

  10. I’m an even quieter Australian and it’s for this reason I’m predicting Adam Bandt flawless victory and God-Emperor

  11. Daniel
    Albanese is not Corbyn; Albanese is very obviously a Starmer- an easily irritated mid-50s wishy-washy moderate-left politician who makes his closest colleagues (Plibersek, Wong, Chalmers to name a few) look like the leadership potential they’ll never live up to because of the damn unions. Well, maybe apart from Chalmers.

  12. Ryan Spencer
    Perhaps you and all the other “Chalmers fans” ought to read my post on the Rankin thread ?
    Next Labour PM will most likely be Clare O’Neil.

  13. Ryan Spencer
    Ah Yes Tanya. The “Emily’s List” standard bearer. So it will be an achievement of “diversity” when we have 50% female MPs ?. How about a diversity of personality types ?. Talents ?, Abilities? Views?. Something, anything to (truly) respect, & admire.
    Tanya , KK, Michelle Rowland, Ann Aly, Kimberly Kitching, Annika Wells etc the labor women stars. Many with sound qualities, & yet all very similar . Achiever/Performer personality type 3 fixation. A monoculture of winning at any cost, just like the PM. Not enough difference for me. I expect a whole lot more.
    ive always admired Julie Owen, Kitching, & respected O’neil. Do you not see the difference ? Others show promise.

    Tanya shares the PMs fatal flaw as a 3 . She is incapable of accepting or acknowledging failure.

  14. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/edenmonaro2022/comment-page-1#comment-753717

    Albanese needs to win over swing voters, not people with evident strongly pro-Coalition opinions such as yourself. Also, people who post strongly pro-Coalition opinions on psephologically blogs outside election campaigns are not “quiet Australians”, they are at a minimum “medium volume Australians”. There is no doubt a significant segment of “quiet Australians” who usually agree with such Coalition supporters but that does not make

  15. It’s been reported in the Saturday Paper, The Footy Show’s Erin Molan is a chance of being preselected in the Labor marginal seat of Eden-Monaro for the Liberals. I’m skeptical that it’s going to happen, and if it would work as these celebrity candidates rarely do. Molan is the daughter of Liberal senator Jim Molan.

    It appears less concerned about the possible Liberal preselection of television personality Erin Molan in the seat of Eden-Monaro, believing incumbent Kristy McBain can hang on.


  16. PN
    Interesting. But very unlikely. Why would Erin take such a massive pay cut ?. The only reason (i can think of) would be to get automatic pre selection next time (2025 on different boundaries). That might make some sense.
    Any one thinking McBain hasn’t got this stitched up, is dreaming. Only Albo could stuff this up,(for her) with one of his glib, stupid, & forgettable “zingers”!!.
    Albo has become the “Albatross” of the ALP !.

  17. Erin Molan? A celebrity? Most celebrity candidates who end up in politics are D grade celebrities at best.

  18. Ryan Spencer
    you know the saying ” Politics is hollywood for ugly people”!! Maybe you are correct about the celebrity rankings too ?.

    very, very clever. One of your best ever comments . Had to google finnistride..! However Wilson is a 3 fixation & Vanity is their passion, whereas Barnaby is an 8 fixation & revenge is their passion. So i don’t see Barnaby ever looking after himself in a metrosexual way. He just isn’t that kind of bloke

  19. Its been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald that Erin Molan has declined the Liberals offer to stand as a canidate in Eden-Monaro.

    Apparently her father senator Jim Molan name is reportedly in the mix. I would be suprised considering his age and his health problems he would run in the hustle and bustle of a marginal seat campaign. Previous canidate Fiona Kotvojs name was also mentioned as a possible option.

  20. Molan is very likely to retire from politics.
    He’s been absent from parliament for a long time now and I honestly don’t see him returning.

  21. Ryan Spencer
    it’s possible that you’re correct, & i agree that is the obvious reality. However Molan is a (politically rare ) enthusiast / epicure TYPE 7 personality . They have far too much energy to step back easily. Does he look or sound like someone wanting to take it easy ? Ask him if he has another 3years (at this level) in him !?. I think you can imagine the answer (easily) !!.
    cheers wd


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