Dunkley – Australia 2022

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  1. Peta Murphy is a pretty visible local member. I expect her to hold this seat – probably with a swing to her.

  2. Likely swing to Labor in this seat. Popular and well-known local MP and the Liberals have failed to deliver too many of their high-profile election promises (rail line, road, railway car parks). The new Liberal candidate has apparently now moved to the electorate from the inner city, has put some big billboards up and is basing herself in Mt Eliza, the only Liberal part of the electorate but where Labor received a huge swing in 2019. You would have to wonder whether the Liberals will give up on this one.

  3. I think the Libs may struggle here. Their promise/pork-barrel to build commuter car parks in Lib and marginal seats that then fell through because of lack of due diligence and cancelled will be remembered in the northern part of this seat and create credibility issues for any new promises they make. And as mentioned above, Murphy is a pretty strong local MP.

    The one thing in the Libs favour is, in my opinion, their candidate is stronger this time. But I don’t think it will be enough.

  4. If a Victorian based Menzien Liberal is leader then I expect a whole swamp of seats including this one to flip. Frydenburg is close to what you would call a Menzien liberal but I’m not sure if he would do really well in Melbourne as leader as he has the clout of Morrison (Being his deputy) But Peter Costello would definitely have held Melbourne for the Libs in 2007 had he deposed John Howard in 2006 which he likely would have had the numbers to do so.

    Obviously these new boundaries and the ones that preceded them aren’t favourable to the Liberals at all but nevertheless it still remains a marginal seat so I think while a Victorian liberal may lose seats in QLD that would be countered by the gains in Melbourne.

    While the liberals can win this under it’s present leadership it would take a 2013,1996,2004,1977,1975,1966 to win this seat.


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