Dawson – Australia 2022

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  1. Labor held on to Mackay at the state election with a small swing against, which people seem to be putting down to the power of incumbency during covid. But even in that election, Whitsunday, Burdekin and Mirani firmed up for conservatives.

    Conventional political wisdom had Christensen as a goner in 2019, but conventional political wisdom has failed quite often in the last couple of decades. Looking at the pendulum now it’s hard to believe this seat was marginal and targeted by Labor in 2019. The LNP have more margin here than in long term safe seats where Labor haven’t tried for decades.

    Whatever it is the area likes about Christensen and the LNP, it would be just as true now as it was in 2019. I don’t think the Labor -> PHON voters are coming back to Labor, at least not in similar numbers.

    It’s not even likely Labor will (or should) put marginal seat resources into this seat. Their path to victory doesn’t go through Dawson.

  2. Apparently last federal election Labor behind the scenes knew that George Christensen trips to the Philippines knew were not issue in the electorate according to the book ‘Party Animals’. The electorate didn’t really care and it reflected with a massive swing to Christensen. The Adani issue was particularly cutting in this seat as there are mining workers who travel to neighboring electorates Capricornia that work in the industry.

    LNP likely to retain. The base primary vote Labor is coming off is just too low at 20.3% to make up in one election. Although it was reported in Courier Mail that Labor insist the seat is in play with Christensen not recontesting. I will say though One Nation’s vote is unpredictable. And people need to be careful in making assumptions that it will automatically flow back to the LNP. Its why state seats of Hervey Bay and Nicklin were missed by commentators at the last state election as Labor gains as most of the plummeting One Nation primary vote trickled to Labor’s column and instead of the LNP’s. However, because mining and incumbency is likely benefit the LNP it certainly plausible to draw that conclusion in this seat.

    Labor has already named their candidate with mining worker Shane Hamilton. It was reported in June Businessman Geoff Baguley was frontrunner to be the LNP candidate in Dawson. Former rugby league player now Mackay Councillor Martin Bella and Whitsunday Mayor Andrew Willcox are apparently are also seeking LNP preselection.

    It was reported in the Guardian a couple of days ago there was last minute effort by Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce forces to convince Christensen stay. This was done to boost Joyce’s numbers in the Nationals, but Christensen indicated he was not interested.

  3. I’m honestly just astonished how dumb Albo and his campaign advisors are. You’d have to be an absolute lunatic to prioritize this seat for an ALP gain. They’re approaching UK Labour levels of delusion.

  4. The longer I spend inspecting the boundaries of electoral divisions in Queensland, the worse it gets.

    Leichhardt fails to unite all of Cairns. Herbert fails to unite all of Townsville, with Dawson snipping off a piece, which in turn fails to unite all of Mackay, with a small part of in Capricornia, which contains Rockhampton but not Gracemere, which is in Flynn, which snips off the northern periphery of Bundaberg, instead of uniting it in Hinkler.

    How does the redistribution committee get away with such indefensible boundaries?

  5. Nicholas –

    I agree the boundaries are downright strange, but there’s usually a few motivating reasons.

    Leichhardt could only unite all of Cairns by giving away Cape York to Kennedy; a possibility which has been vociferously objected to in previous redistributions IIRC.

    Townsville is now a little too large for one electorate, I believe (as the northern hinterland part of Herbert has a lower population than the Dawson part of Townsville).

    I expect this issue will actually be somewhat resolved in the next two redistributions as SEQ continues to grow relative to the rest of the state. Wide Bay has already been pulled into the Sunshine Coast, and this process is effectively removing a non-SEQ division.

  6. Bob, this isnt Liberal it is National. The Nationals contest the following QLD seats under the LNP,

    Dawson,Flynn,Capricornia,Maranoa,Kennedy,Hinkler and Wide Bay. The rest of the LNP seats and Labor QLD seats are always contested by the Liberal branch of the LNP.

    But I know what you mean except I’ll say National hold or LNP hold with a swing to them (yes people the LNP will get a swing to them here because GC wasn’t exactly popular and Labor is toxic up in coal country)

  7. the fact that Labor are targeting this and yet they are putting no resources (I know this bc I’m on the ground) into Swan, a marginal seat where Labor are likely to get a swing to them is beyond me.

  8. Nicolas Weston
    I agree boundaries don’t not reflect Community of interest. However the redistribution committee or given specific directions about percentage variance from the Average and in this country area of Queensland are you slight deficiency in numbers means a huge adjustment in kilometres.

    Political party feedback on boundaries has nothing to do with community interest and 100% to do with tactical advantages.

  9. I don’t see Andrew Willcox sitting with the Nationals with Barnaby as leader. There is no evidence Andrew Willcox is a member of the National party and who knows how long he has been a member of the state LNP for. I believe members can align themselves in QLD and it wouldn’t be surprising if he sits with the Liberals considering Entsch and Thomson do and they are North QLD as well.

    Barnaby must go. He is a disgrace to our country


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