Cunningham – Australia 2022

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  1. Sharon Bird has announced her retirement. Labor hold either way. Greens did win the seat but its not really a fair reflection of the chances. They won it during a bye-election where Simon Crean’s leadership was going pretty dismal. Most pundits predicted it would go back to Labor at the general election which it did.

    There were also reports during the bye-election some Labor members undermined Labors campaign after being disappointed with the outcome of the preselection. They would later face expulsion from the party for their actions it was reported.

  2. Labor is clearly not confident about the next election with all these retirements. In Western democracy the party that has more retirements usually losses the election. Look at 2013 for example.

    Even looking in the US you will see more house retirements for the party that is looking to lose such as 2010 and 2018.

    This is because members don’t want to be on the opposition benches. They know very well being in government means they can get more done for their constituents and just holding the opposite party to account isn’t enough.

    This will be a Labor hold but don’t expect Bird to be the last Labor retirement. I suspect we could see another 3 or so more. At the last election the coalition had allot of retirements because they thought they would lose so perhaps these Labor MP’s who are going because they suspect they won’t win government may be proven wrong and perhaps they will regret their decision to go?

    Another reason could be (This isn’t necessarily the case in safe seats) because an open seat is more competitive than an incumbent MP with personal support so retiring when the party is looking to do well will mean they hold onto the seat regardless of the loss of the personal vote.

  3. It’s been reported Alison Byrnes Scully, Sharon Bird’s long-time adviser and executive assistant and wife of state MP Paul Scully. Is reported the early frontrunner to win the Labor pre-selection for the seat of Cunningham.


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