Labor should hold here with a swing towards them.
The new boundaries are actually slightly better for the Libs than the old ones. They also have a high profile candidate in Stephanie Asher who is the mayor of Geelong. They might still be in the race here.
No rural component and no lib sitting mp… Anne henderson in the senate… Should be alp held with swing to them
Redistributed I agree not to write this seat off, however the federal government is particularly unpopular with Labor have incumbency on their side which should benefit them.
That might be true ordinarily. However Libby Coker is quite (extra) ordinary !!. A Particularly vile spiteful, & outright nasty individual. None of which disqualifies her as an MP. Of real concern is her total lack of awareness, consciousness, & judgement.
winediamond how do you know she is spiteful? I did do about 25 minutes of trawling through the internet and the only thing I found about bullying was the fact that her and Ged Kearney moved factions after the whole Somyurek kerfuffle.
winediamond February 25, 2020 at 12:29 pm
From todays OZ Strewth column Alice Workman
Them’s fighting words
Sarah Henderson made a declaration on Monday morning that shook some of her Liberal colleagues. The Victorian senator told Sky News she was the “de facto member for Corangamite”. Last we checked she lost her seat and returned to Canberra only after former cabinet minister Mitch Fifield departed for the UN. The actual member for Corangamite, Labor’s Libby Coker, told Strewth: “My predecessor can’t quite get over the fact that in May 2019 she was dumped by the people of Corangamite, despite $3bn of funding promises … and despite the Coalition being returned to office.” By Strewth’s calculations the Liberals’ 41 campaign promises in the marginal seat were the equivalent of $26,500 per voter! Coker continued: “Now she has been parachuted back into the Senate without facing an election. Voters in the rest of regional Victoria — Ballarat, Warrnambool, Bendigo — must be a little peeved with the Senator’s obsession with Corangamite, the place where she lives and where she lost. Voters chose who they want as the Member for Corangamite and it wasn’t Sarah Henderson. If Ms Henderson has the illusion that she and the policies of the Coalition are so popular … then I would welcome her resigning her Senate spot and standing again at the next election.”
My view, & response in the OZ at the time
A MORE INTELLIGENT RESPONSE might have been:
I’m delighted that Sarah remains as devoted to Corangamite as we are. Perhaps we can enjoy a further extra $3 billion that Sarah secured for us last term. Wouldn’t that be a fabulous outcome for Corangamite. Being the main focus of a federal Senator is no small privilege , & i look forward to working constructively with the liberals or anyone else for the benefit of Corangamite. If Sarah want to be the “de-facto” member or anything else that’s fine by me.
Instead Coker indulged herself with a adversarial, hyper- aggressive, self-absorbed pathetic rant. Her self promotion obscured Henderson’s, & demonstrated an almost hysterical fragility, & insecurity. Surely we can do better for a couple of hundred grand a year ??.
To be fair wd it wasn’t close loss. As the only non-National regional coalition Senator, she does have to represent other areas of the state, and her obsession with Corangamite is a bit unhealthy considering she represents her state. She can’t identify as the seat’s de facto member as she didn’t win; hasn’t had the party’s position particularly advanced by the redistribution, and she’s a Senator. Considering most of the projects were pork barrelled into the marginal seat by the government, and Coker’s tone didn’t seem fragile, insecure or aggressive (albeit a bit sarcastic) so I feel that we’re getting worked up over nothing of note.
From memory you live on the North Shore/Northern Beaches of Sydney and I live in a rapidly gentrifying suburb south of the river in Perth. We aren’t necessarily completely qualified to critically analyse Coker’s near-two-year stint as the member for Corangamite (not Cox or Tucker), we can be sure that someone from the surf towns/outer suburbs of Geelong can. I’d think Coker would be returned considering that the demographics are changing and Geelong and co. have been relatively COVID free. Cheers.
Surely by now you understand that a politician has to work extremely hard, & behave so badly as to be almost pathological, in order to earn my complete contempt ? . I tend not to bestow such disfavour lightly, or capriciously !.
Absolutely mate. There are so few that spring to mind in terms of hard-working MPs. I could name Linda Burney and Anne Aly for starters, both being inspirational women who work hard in their own electorates. Can’t think of many more to be completely honest. I would say Senators Siewert (retiring) and Steele-John are still fierce advocates for huge proportions of the population, namely socioeconomically disadvantaged people and disabled people. Others? Maybe Warren Entsch if you ignore the hypocrisy.
Sorry i replied before receiving your post.
Your POV , & arguments are well presented, & expressed. However your fair view of the lady, doesn’t lighten in any way my extremely dark view.
I’ll disagree about the loss. It was very close, on the back of a tough re distribution. This is significant because of Chairman Dan’s recent “fall from grace”. Corangamite is now in play, & probably more at risk than say Lilley, E-M, Greenway, Dobell, or even Chisholm is for the libs. I note with interest, & amusement a “westralian centric” POV wrt Covid. Geelong being Covid free & viciously locked down anyway has, doubtless infuriated the punters rather than reassured them !!!. Clearly there is a different perspective in the west !?
Haven’t we discussed assessing political horseflesh recently !? Lets compare an engaging labor filly like Annike Wells, or a thoroughbred like Kimberly Kitching, or Michelle Rowland, with the feeble broken down nag of Libby Coker. Not pretty is it ? I could give you an enneagram assessment that would arrive at a similar outcome….. What i would say is that there are 3 labor senators that ought to be in the lower house & in senior positions Kitching, Cicione, & your old boy from the west. If old nags like Coker went to the political knackery there might be room for this kind of talent !! A “win-win”!
I don’t disagree with the effectiveness of Senators Kitching and Ciccone, although my view is more that they’re simply more effective as Senators because they are far too valuable for the ALP in the committee work stage. My COVID stance probably relies on the examples of the QLD Election (Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra) and then seats in WA like Geraldton, Pilbara and Kalgoorlie considering they all had very little/no COVID. Watched Coker’s maiden speech and I kinda get your point about tone. Also, who’s the “old boy from the west”? WA Labor does still have slightly too many evergreen members who still get a seat, or in John Quigley’s case, the Attorney General role as well.
> The new boundaries are actually slightly better for the Libs than the old ones.
I wonder if this is true. A 0.1% shift is within the margin of error of any redistribution calculation, and that’s before you take into account the effect of rise of non-ordinary voting. Postals split 57-43 Lib in 2019. The rural areas excluded probably accounted for a disproportionate share of the postal vote; if the calculation assumes a uniform spread of postal voting then that might overstate the Liberal position.
Couldn’t remember name of Sen Glenn Sterle. Impressive as hell. Tough no nonsense bloke reminds me of Peter Walsh, Australia’s greatest finance minister. Best Labor PM we didn’t get.
Im extremely impressed that you could take all 25 minutes of Coker !. Lad With that kind of fortitude, & patience, you will make an excellent husband for some very unhappy woman ! ( JUST KIDDING !)
Your point about the senators is really a perennial one. They generally communicate on a higher level, & do more important work per se. However the lower house needs leadership even more….
Perhaps if more senators transferred into the HofR WE might end up with better reps, & fewer show ponies, or bitter turgid messy disasters like Coker ?
ps Ryan If you feel inclined give me a call sometime for a more detailed discussion my number is 0425365419
I still at this stage don’t see the liberal party making a gain here, but I won’t write this seat off.
The way this looks atm, is that Corangamite has become a genuine toss up along with maybe a dozen others. Its just too early to say where the cards will fall. However with the fall of Andrews popularity, & consequently influence, this seat is now in play. It could become a lightning rod of sorts for lockdown resentments.
Most people I speak too are swing voters, they are more angry at the federal government which is up for election before the state.
Can they distinguish which govt imposed the lockdowns , & lied to them about the necessity when their LGA had ZERO cases ? If you experienced 9 months of lockdowns wouldn’t you be getting a little testy ?
I am sure that the majority of voters in Corangamite can distinguish between a government that did its best to stamp out transmission, used not just proven cases but also close contacts (the MCG and AMII clusters in particular had close contacts over most of the state, requiring a statewide lockdown) to calculate whether or not a lockdown was needed and the government that has continually ignored its constitutional responsibility for quarantine, made a mess of the vaccine rollout and heavily favoured NSW.
Tom the first and best
Very Happy for you mate. We will see soon enough if all those lines of thinking prevail.
I note you haven’t actually responded to most of what i’ve put forward. I doubt that everyone else will ignore the realities of blanket lockdowns, mental health issues, suicides, business closures, school closures etc etc etc.
If you think ANYONE has “covered themselves with glory” you are dreaming
as a school-aged young adult myself I would rather be in a harsh lockdown than die of covid. I still wear a face mask at school when people around me are sick and I haven’t been sick in ages.
I feel incredibly sad that anyone could live with the level of fear, anxiety, & concern that you describe. It is hard not to contrast my hedonistic, self absorbed, & pleasure seeking life in the late 70s, & early 80s. Getting adrenalin highs, & risk taking were pursued relentlessly !. The thought of observing any guidelines , let alone laws would have been resisted fiercely . reckless perhaps But (in that age) we were free.
Now i pursue a different freedom through the enneagram. I wouldn’t want to live without it. id still be hiding (being who i really am) & resisting everything even living itself, which is an exhausting & all consuming existence . I’d be miserable & my son wouldn’t speak to me.
How about considering having the life you really want, & living it the way you choose ?
From experience the longest lockdown we had was about a month (at the very start) and it was a lot softer than most, mainly because there was so little community spread.
Maybe if we had more cases over here I might have different thoughts.
I’m 23 and my entire life so far has been very much the opposite of what you’ve described. Study study study work work work. Always been very risk-averse and wary to follow rules. I tell myself I’ll have plenty of time to enjoy myself (whatever that might entail) once I never have to worry about money again.
i hear you. We live in a different country, & a different time now. You sound like a very good lad indeed, & i hope your dedication is rewarded in full. When all of this nonsense is over try to take some time for yourself, & look into your own heart, for what can bring you joy. Savour the liberty that is yours now, jobs, mortgages, partners, & kids can appear instantly !. Then freedom can be a long time reclaimed, although we can all choose freedom within ourselves.
!. At 24 i became a company director, 25 got engaged, 26 got married,27 had a mortgage, kids at 31. It can all happen fast
I live in the electorate of Corangamite (from reading previous comments I believe you live in Sydney) and I can assure you most of the people I talk to in my electorate aren’t upset with Chairman Dan as you call him, they blame Gladys for not locking down quick enough and allowing the virus to enter Victoria, they also blame Morrison for not acting quick enough on vaccinations by claiming “it’s not a race” and his lack of foresight in not building dedicated quarantine centres while praising Hotel Quarantine (he’s still doing it even with the new strain Omicron breaking out) that allowed the virus to leek out into the general population, I also think you should have a look at the polls from reputable sources regarding Andrews, they have fallen a bit but not that much, if you watch Sky After Dark which I presume you do because the only people I’ve ever seen use the SKY euphemisms of Dictator Dan and Chairman Dan read and watch Murdoch media and could be excused for thinking Andrews popularity has dropped through the floor, a large Majority of Victorians are still behind what Andrews has done and as I said earlier they blame Gladys and Morrison because all the outbreaks in Victoria originated in NSW, you can also discount the noisy but small amount of anti-vaxxers and “Freedom” marchers as an indication of Andrews support because in reality they amount to about .05% of Victoria’s population a number that is only relevant if a copper tells you you’re over it. Cheers Robert.
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
Notify me of new posts by email.