Cooper – Australia 2022

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  1. “Cooper covers all of the City of Darebin as well as parts of Yarra and Whittlesea.”

    I think you mean Moreland instead of Whittlesea.

  2. Still more likely to go Green than Wills despite the margin, 2 elections ago this was closer and the Greens candidate back in the by-election imploded and after the humiliating loss the Greens have lost momentum here. But Kearney is not safe and she could definitely lose if the polls are right and the Greens achieve their best result ever.

  3. I agree with Daniel, I wouldn’t write the Green off here as there is still a real chance of this being picked up.

  4. I don`t think Cooper is likely to fall to the Greens this time. There seems to be a school of though that Kearney is sufficiently progressive for Cooper (more so than her predecessor, Feeney, from the right faction) and running disenchantment with non-progressiveness of the party overall is less likely to work in opposition, although the recent tax policy changes do provide some cause for voters to switch from ALP to the Greens. In Wills, Kahlil does not (I believe) have the same degree progressive support as Kearney, for reasons including he is from the right faction.

  5. Nope. Ged Kearney retains this easy. Anyone who thinks the Greens are a chance here are kidding themselves.

    As mentioned David Feeney wasn’t liked by the electorate. But it also took the Greens canidate Alex Bhathal a couple elections to get it up to strinking distance. It all evaporated last election with Kearney securing almost 47% on the primary vote. I don’t even think the Greens could achieve a win here even if the Liberals prefernced the Greens.

    Nothing to see here folks.

  6. Kearney’s certainly a much better fit for the electorate than Feeney, but I expect the Greens will start improving again after a term of Labor government, depending on how Labor handles climate and refugee issues in that term.

  7. Given their policies across the board (the ACT being the exception) the Labor party would struggle to form in coalition with the Greens given their shift to the right. The Greens would only govern with them knowing that the ALP are slightly less sexist, racist, homophobic and climate-change denying, and pay slightly more care to Indigenous people and welfare recipients.

  8. A term of majority ALP government, particularly if it is the upcoming term and/or under Albanese, would likely drive up the Green vote in Cooper and other ALP versus Greens marginals. That is no to say the Greens would be sure of winning Cooper, it probably would be a marginal seat though.

  9. Gearney isn’t safe even though she’s to the left of the party because people rarely look at where their MP is factionally aligned. If people want to vote for the Greens they will vote for the Greens and if they want Albo as PM then they will vote for Gearney. Plain and simple.

  10. I don’t put a lot of stock in voters knowing or caring much about party factions except in very high profile cases, and regardless, Kearney voted to maintain permanent offshore detention along with the rest of the ALP, despite all the words she mouthed on behalf of the Murugappans. But frankly I wouldn’t be too worried if I were her, unless the Libs decide to preference Greens on their HTVs. I’m more skeptical that that’s going to happen than I was before. Morrison needs the minor right-wing parties on side this election, like he did last time. He can afford to annoy them with signature requirements but I’m not sure he can afford to blatantly jeopardise Clive Palmer’s business interests by letting Greens into Parliament.

  11. @Ryan Spencer

    Your comment that Labor is “slightly less sexist, racist, homophobic and climate-change denying”.

    Is so wrong on so many accounts. Its actually a typical comment from a inner city latte sipping Greens supporter who is so disconnected from mainstream Australia.

    Labor passed marriage equality legislation. Labor affirmative action ensures a significant presence of women in its ranks.

    Does Labor take conservative postion on immigration? Yeah I will concede that but if the party took the Greens stance they would never win an election. As elections are decided in the outer surburbs and inner regions. The problem is Greens supporters cling on to this one issue and suggest Labors whole platform is to the right.

    Greens also try to forget that they teamed up with Liberals. To block Kevin Rudds CPRS legislation which proves their more interested in playing politics with the environment then doing anything about it.

    I won’t comment any further. Because we are to discuss this seat. But I will add the suggestion the Greens are a chance here is either from over enthusiastic Green supporters or Labor detractors trying to paint the worst outcome.

  12. Political Nightwatchman
    You fool.
    The Greens have 50% quotas on candidates which we actually achieve. We were trying to get marriage equality far earlier than Labor. Heck, it wasn’t even until 2014/15 (Shorten) when you had a leader that supported it. We opposed the CPRS because it was significantly flawed policy, and then, we worked with the Gillard Government to create the ETS, which was significantly more beneficial towards the environment. Labor’s whole platform is significantly moving to the right, such as no longer wanting dental care on Medicare, supporting new coal projects, fracking the Beetaloo Basin and supporting the tax cuts for wealthy people (not an ALP demographic last time I checked). We have a significant presence of women in our ranks (60% of all elected federal members, more than the ALP) and I’m not f***ing disconnected from mainstream Australia, because if I was disconnected from anything mainstream I’d be supporting Labor.

    In conclusion, your comment is completely debunked and seats like Cooper will become more marginal, mainly because Kearney can’t keep up the facade if she voted the same way as anyone else. If she abstained on the Beetaloo Basin issue, then she clearly doesn’t have the balls to express the views of her extremely left-wing constituents, who likely vehemently oppose fracking.

    As for lattes, I don’t drink them and its just a pejorative term for a young left-wing person because you lot over there are very clearly scared of us as a political force.

  13. I would agree with Daniel and Ryan that the Greens will increasingly dominate all inner suburban districts across the country, especially in the two largest cities (Sydney and Melbourne). Young people are concerned about their future and that is why it appears they support issues that are often at odds with those in older generations (boomers mainly) who are more worried about ‘here and now’ issues such as cost of living.

    In addition, those in rural parts of the country may also be fearful of change, particularly those who rely on mining and forestry for living. Like the old saying ‘you cant teach an old dog new tricks’, these people are worried how their lives will be impacted if forced to move away from what they have always known.

  14. Melbourne yes, Sydney I don’t think so. The Greens do okay in multi-candidate council wards, but the margins for rusted-on Liberal voters in the North and East, and Labor and Liberal in the West, are too calcified for them to be a real force outside the Inner West and Sydney proper- at least not in the near future.

  15. Probably agree with Sydney assessment, the north shore area is still strongly Liberal leaning. However, it is slowly trending leftward/progressive as shown by recent state and Federal election results with Greens or left leaning independents having gained increased support. Even inner suburban Brisbane is also trending to the Greens – ten years ago Labor was still strong in inner Brisbane districts.

  16. I’d go further. I’d say Brisbane is still, along with Melbourne, their best bet for a major breakthrough at the next federal election. Canberra also looks promising for 2025 and Hobart looks destined to turn Green the second that Wilkie steps down.

  17. Furtive, disagree on Clark (Hobart). The Greens at state level have been stuck in a 20 – 25% range for decades – they seem to have hit a natural ceiling of support. The only way out would be for Clark to move south into more Greens friendly territory and out of the Labor northern suburbs. Most likely to go back to Labor should Wilkie retire.

  18. Tasmania uses the same federal districts for state elections, only difference is that state ones elect 5 members instead of one. Essentially the state and federal districts are coterminous.

  19. Celeste Liddle is the right candidate for the Greens to win the seat, and they should be able to campaign strongly enough on their core issues to win back some of the vote they lost in 2019, especially with Albo as leader. Lidia Thorpe leading the Greens senate ticket should help too.

    However it will come down to Liberal preferences. Liberals preferencing Greens over Labor is starting to happen again (e.g. QLD and WA state elections), but I don’t see it happening federally. Greens would have won in 2016 and even 2013 with the Liberal preferences Adam Bandt got in 2010.

    Greens will have a hard time winning seats where the goal is for Libs come 3rd on primaries (Cooper, Wills, Fraser, Canberra, Grayndler) until they get Lib preferences or after a term of a mediocre Labor government, and preferably both.

    As far as future prospects go, if they do well in 2019 they might be able to grab “regional” Richmond and “suburban” Ryan, and they’ll have a full cohort of 12 senators (maybe even 13 if ACT goes well). That should be a good basis for future campaigning in any kind of seat – though it’s hard to imagine them actually winning even a handful of seats.


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