Clark – Australia 2022

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  1. Unfortunately Wilkie holds unless he retires. Would love for him to go as I am ot impressed with his defence of Julian Assange at all.

    Labor has a better chance at winning this than Melbourne though as Wilkie is an independent and his votes will flow back to the Labor when he’s gone unlike in Melbourne where the Greens are strong there anyway.

    My question is why do independents in Sydney struggle to win reelection but Wilkie has an easy time winning in Hobart? Ted Mack almost lost his seat in 1993 and Phelps lost in 2019 and Steggal may yet face a tough challenge. Less urban?

  2. Yes I think the small city characteristics of Hobart make it easier for independents to win and hold seats. Wilkie (running as an independent) almost won one of the five spots in the equivalent seat of Denison at the 2010 state election and Kristie Johnson won a spot as an independent in the seat of Clark at the 2019 state election.

    Wilkie may also have a higher profile as he ran a strong campaign as a Greens candidate in Bennelong against John Howard at one election (either 2001 or 2004).

  3. The Greens primary here (at Senate level) was 22%, the Liberals were 25% and Labor 36%. UAP/ONP did badly, Lambie got about 5% odd, and Animal Justice got 1.3%. Extremely left-wing seat which probably would be a Labor-Greens marginal (Melbourne at state level) when Wilkie does retire. If the Greens do better in Glenorchy, obviously doing far better in the hills and central Hobart, they’ll come at least second.

  4. The Greens` post Wilkie results depend on several factors including:

    Whether the AEC decide to significantly redistribute the Hobart seats in favour of a contiguous Franklin, which would likely put southern Hobart in Franklin, which would likely be the Greens` best seat.

    If the AEC do not significantly redistribute the Hobart seats, the level of expansion of the proportion of Green favouring demographics in northern Clark.

    How the Greens do relative to the ALP.

    The very low likelihood of the Tasmanian Liberals preferencing the Greens.

  5. To be fair the WA Liberals (most conservative I thought) did preference the Greens in Fremantle, Maylands, Kimberley and South Perth at the most recent state election, so never say never although it is Tasmania, and the Liberals probably hate us Greenies a lot more.

  6. It’s not about who they hate the most, just about every loyal Liberal hates the Greens more than Labor. It’s about whether they think can bait Labor into costly rearguard actions in vulnerable progressive seats.

  7. I’m sure there are some branches of the Liberals (at least the ACT for starters) would rather have a Greens MP than a Labor MP because Greens MPs aren’t beholden to tow the party line quite to the extent that Labor are, and the Greens may well vote against Labor on some occasions.

  8. The Greens just aren’t likely to do anything the Liberals want anymore. That may have been different 10 years ago but the left are clearly in the ascendancy now. The opposite is true in the ALP. I mean just look how Albo whipped for the tax cuts. The Greens would never go along with that today.

  9. I mean I guess there’s still a lot of old guard Greens in Tassie but even still, counting on the ALP to focus group itself into submitting to Liberal policy is still a surer bet as far as that goes.

  10. Ryan Spencer
    Lad you are really starting to impress me!!. Do i detect lateral thinking ? That really is an atypical quality in a green voter, i must say. BTW you o make some good points, & i think you may be surprised that i agree with you broadly. However perhaps you might be even more surprised why.
    Any thinking centre right voter will put Labor last, which means preferencing the greens. Proud to own that myself. I wonder if you understand why, or the thinking behind that strategy ?


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