Chisholm – Australia 2022

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  1. Trent
    You make a strong case. Good cogent, & well reasoned views. Most of which i agree with.
    Rather than argue i’ll put a few questions to you, because i find your views to be entirely genuine.

    Does the anti-Morrison sentiment outweigh the Albo disdain?. Is the fact of albo not being Victorian a factor ?
    Will the ALP fielding a non Asian candidate be a factor in Chisholm ?
    Have you underestimated the effect of the IBAC investigation ? The NSW experience would suggest this. Last week after 10+ years 2 nsw labor ministers were imprisoned. In Victoria there is a clearly an “unholy trinity” of unions, govt, & big business. In QLD under Bjelke-Petersen this was accepted, & it could be argued that public interest was not compromised (much!). Do you see this as a fair comparison ?
    The lockdowns were a humiliation for Victoria. I think the parallels with NSW will not be enduring , but the injury will be. Having said that Trent, it’s just as likely that you will end up being entirely correct.
    cheers wd

  2. Any Voices Of movement in this seat? Hypothetically, if Julia Banks ran again as an independent, how do you think she would do, and would she be likely to get the backing of a Voices Of movement?

  3. Kara
    From a local – No. The characteristics of “Voices of ..” seats seems to be that they are largely or very Anglo and previously safe Liberal seats. Chisholm fits neither of those.
    Julia Banks took herself off to the Mornington Peninsula last time so unlikely to be back. It was never very clear how connected she was with Chisholm.
    On the ALP running a non Asian candidate – hard to say. Last time it was Chinese candidate vs Chinese candidate – Gladys Liu was socially very conservative whilst Jennifer Yang was a serial candidate who had drifted across the Eastern Suburbs and run for Melbourne Lord Mayor. Neither was an attractive voting proposition. There is a big South Asian community in Chisholm as well – it would be interesting to see what happens if a South Asian candidate ran.

  4. Private polling by the liberals has basically conceded this seat to Labor. Promises made by the Morrison Government for this seat have not been delivered. Labor is confident of winning this seat.

  5. It was reported in the Australian Financial Review both parties expect Labor to win Chisholm.


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