Canning – Australia 2022

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  1. Peter van Onselen was on the show Insiders and mentioned four seats in WA that on internal polling are gone for the Liberals on current polling. He listed (Swan, Pearce, and Hasluck). But interestingly he also mentioned the seat of Canning. Out of the four this seat is probably the Liberals best chance of retaining.

    I know Andrew Hastie was considered a rising star in the Liberal party. But that was a while ago and he hasn’t seem to eventuate too much since then. However, he is only 39 so its not as if he is in his twilight years.

    Canning has been a seat for Labor like Greenway for the Liberals. Where Labor just hasn’t been able to get over line. Labor’s MP for Burt Matt Keogh failed to win the seat in a bye-election and Alannah Mactiernan gamble of giving up her state career to contest the seat failed in winning the seat. From what I can see Labor hasn’t named a candidate for the seat yet.

  2. Canning is an interesting seat as it has a strong Labor area in Mandurah that is surrounded by strong Liberal areas. It should be a bell-weather seat It is interesting that the margin is 11.6% based on the redistribution so should be an impossible, but I note in the last election there were a number of Andrew Hastie signs scattered throughout the region so maybe it is a seat with an over inflated margin.

  3. @Political Night-watchman

    You have to remember that back in 2010, Don Randall was MP here, and he would have been the reason MacTiernan lost.

  4. Increased Urban Sprawl in areas like Byford may help Labor longer term similar to what has happened in Victoria in the suburb of Pakenham as it has grown.

  5. @Anton Kreitzer

    The late Don Randall was a popular Mp but its not the only reason. When Alannah Mactiernan nominated it looked almost certain she would win the seat. Kevin Rudd had a massive lead in the polls and Canning was on a narrow margin.

    Rudd was encouraged to go to a double dissolution on the CPRS. But Rudd blew it. Tony Abbott was able to gain traction using a scare campaign on the CPRS. Rudd then took it off the agenda and proposed a mining tax which did huge damage to his popularity in the polls. Then the successful leadership challenge from Julia Gillard made the government look unstable. And only just of matter months Mactiernan who looked certain to win the seat had her chances evaporated with a snap of a fingers.

    Randall tragic death would have aided the Liberals in the bye-election. Voters are not likely going punish the government when its been caused in sad circumstances as we saw in the state bye-election in Queensland in the seat of Stretton.

  6. Andrew Hastie is under no threat whatsoever. PVO either misspoke or has started making stupid predictions again. Hastie will be PM by 2028 . iN between we will have a labor PM, & “historical footnote” lib.

  7. WA is largely a mystery to me. Demographically wise, what seat or area would Canning be similar to on the east coast?

  8. @Redistributed Not from WA but my working assumption is something like West Gippsland between Pakenham and the Latrobe Valley, or Ipswich and the Lockyer Valley. Mandurah is kind of a hybrid of a Perth Suburb and its own city, and the rest is rural-ish (except Byford which is also basically a suburb

  9. I’ve also seen comparisons to Geelong, but Mandurah is close enough to Perth sprawl and a lot smaller.

    Not sure how it is from an identity perspective – I know people from Mandurah who simplify and say they’re from Perth to people outside WA. So not like Queanbeyan, Blue Mountains and Geelong residents. But I’m not sure if that’s common, if they’re happy about it or how they’re seen within WA.

  10. “Hastie will be pm by 2028” is quite laughable it won’t happen. According to WD’s logic everyone will be pm.

    He isn’t even on the senior frontbench right now so I don’t see how he becomes leader after the 2025 election. I agree he will hold with his margin cut in half.

    I have always believed Frydenburg will be the next Liberal leader provided he has a seat but they have never had a leader from WA, won’t happen because you know what they did to JB

  11. Daniel October 25, 2021 at 5:19 pm
    “Hastie will be pm by 2028” is quite laughable it won’t happen. According to WD’s logic everyone will be pm.”
    HAHAHHAHAHAHA Want to put my predictions against yours !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Guess who will look the Goose !???
    thanks for the laugh WD

  12. Guess winediamond means PM material, that is a member who has leadership qualities but hasnt been able to obtain a party leadership position yet. I believe Andrew Hastie is one of the strongest performers with his conviction on international issues (such as China)

  13. Yoh An
    Yes. Exactly right.
    Hastie & Stoker are the highest functioning Achiever/Performer type 3 personalities in parliament.
    Compare their meagre vanity, arrogance, & propagandising, to the squalid excesses of the PM, Dan Andrews, or KK.
    Or the oily seductive lasciviousness of “Tricky Dicky, or “pork” Bariilaro !!.

    I truly see Hastie as Australia’s JFK. But if he is even close to Bob Hawke that would be plenty better than what we are being offered now.
    cheers wd


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