Canberra – Australia 2022

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  1. Labor Retain.

    Greens could beat Libs into second place on primaries. If Liberals decide (unlikely) reverse their how-to-vote card strategy could be a close race between Labor and Greens.

    But Labor should still retain the seat. But clearly the ACT Greens are putting effort in the electorate.

  2. Liberals preferenced Greens over Labor in the recent QLD and WA state elections, and in some (but not all) seats in the NT election.

    Another factor that might lead to Liberals preferencing Greens is Albanese being in a Labor vs Green seat. Liberals could soften his margin. We saw in QLD how a decision to preference Greens in a single seat led to an electorate wide decision.

    Labor likely would rather deploy Canberra based resources in Eden Monaro, but a Greens threat could divert resources away from the traditional marginal into an otherwise safe ALP seat.

    All that to say I don’t think it’s as unlikely as in 2019 that Liberals will preference Greens, putting this seat, Cooper and Wills in the frame. Greens also have much more to work with after their 2020 territory election result and I’ll be surprised if they cant push Labor into 2nd.

    The most interesting an ACT based seat has been in a long time.


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