Bowman – Australia 2022

LNP 10.2%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.

Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.

History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.

David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.

Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably. Laming has continued to hold the seat ever since.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Andrew Laming is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Andrew Laming’s antics may have an impact on the LNP margin, although his retirement may lessen that impact. Whatever happens, it’s hard to see Labor winning.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Laming Liberal National 47,86648.7-1.1
Tom Baster Labor 26,14726.6-5.5
Emerald Moon Greens 11,79512.0+2.2
Glen WadsworthOne Nation7,1757.3+7.3
Shane ClarkeUnited Australia Party3,5403.6+3.6
David AndersonConservative National Party1,8161.8+1.9
Informal3,4653.4-0.4

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Laming Liberal National 59,23760.2+3.2
Tom Baster Labor 39,10239.8-3.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, with a vote ranging from 56.1% in the west to 60.6% in the centre. Labor won 51.1% on the low-population islands.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 13.2% in the south-east to 14.2% on the islands.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West14.056.120,69921.0
Central13.860.610,28910.5
South-East13.258.89,1419.3
Islands14.248.93,6533.7
Pre-poll10.363.040,38341.1
Other votes11.362.114,17414.4

Election results in Bowman at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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14 COMMENTS

  1. Outgoing MP Andrew Laming accepted $130000 settlement of damages (80000) & legal costs(50000), from the ABC (taxpayers funds ) for Louise Milligan’s defamatory tweets. This is on top of $780000 for the Porter debacle, & a small part of $7 + million in EXTERNAL legal costs (PA), which is on top of a legal dept of 29 ON STAFF lawyers.

    In case anyone might want to presume something/anything has been accepted, acknowledged, let alone learned here is is an excerpt from todays OZ :

    “”At Wednesday’s hearing, Milligan’s lawyer Renee Enbom asked that the judgement include a notation that Milligan did not accept any liability in the matter.
    But Dr Laming’s counsel Sue Chrysanthou claimed that was “bizarre and unnecessary”, given the ABC reporter had consented to settlement.
    Justice Anna Katzmann said she would consent to a notation in the judgement that a “compromise” in the matter had been reached.””

    The judge is clearly a complete idiot.

    No word yet on the future of damaged lib candidate Henry Pike.

  2. LNP to get a scare here but will probably still hold on with their controversial candidate Henry Pike who was endorsed once again as the candidate despite the rumours that he would be set aside.

  3. This tends to be now a conservative voting area so the buffer that the liberals hold will see them retain this seat but with a likely reduced margin.

  4. The redefined electoral boundaries done under “eyebrows” in 2001 changed the borders cutting the heavy Labor areas from the new safe electorate of Bowman, and changed the distribution of others close by. Gerrymandering at its best and Lame ing has been taking advantage of it ever since.

  5. Redlands LGA has a lot of retirees.

    ABS figures show it has 25% of its population over 60 and a median age of 41. Of the urban SEQ councils, only Sunshine Coast (42) and Noosa (49) are older.

  6. I just had a week at Stradbroke Island two local papers have dissapear Ed in 12 months. No sign of any Electorsl activity on Stradbroke. Very surprising results for three booths on Strady. They are in reverse order to what I would have expected. Three settlements in the island are very different in appearance and demography. Entry point to island is Dunwich which has a large First Nation element, most of now unemployed mine workers are located in Dunwich. However this had highest Liberal 2pp vote. Amity is a boating and fishing community. Some small tourist accomodation but certainly not touristy test it had second highest LNP 2PPV. ( possibly the more wealthy enclave of Flinders Beach are corrupting my logic. The Thoird Settlement is much more upmarket and touristy and it had the lowest LNP 2 ppv. Probably the absent landowners are voting on mainland .

    However not a single Corflute visible no parked trailers and lack of a local paper really makes it difficult for candidates to communicate with electorate.

    Now compare Strady to Mainland same electoraldivision and same council. In Cleveland large numbers of Ridd Corflutes and evidence of I like Pike signs. If Political Nightwatchman is correct and Libs are dumping pike no one see me to be communicating this to local branch. Australian Labor Party do appear to have a lot more Corflutes up than LNP. Use of Stationery trailers seems to be prevalent allowing the candidates to avoid complying with council restrictions.

  7. At ground level upon informal discussions with locals, UAP Candidate Mary-Jane Stevens has a ground swell of support. Although they are not shouting it from the roof tops, in their own silent way they are mounting support that will surprise everyone on election day. In particular many previously staunch Liberal supporters are disillusioned by the Party and are looking for alternate representation. Upon reading the UAP policy list it has also given me reason to reconsider my position.

  8. The liberal Pike is being investigated by police for allegedly assaulting a Labor volunteer at the pre-poll.

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