Blair – Australia 2022

ALP 1.2%

Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.

Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.

History

Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.

Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest.

Neumann has been re-elected four times since his first win in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Blair is a very marginal seat but the current margin is a low point for Labor since the major redistribution redrew the seat in 2006.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Shayne Neumann Labor 29,98731.3-9.8
Robert Shearman Liberal National 27,84429.0-0.6
Sharon BellOne Nation16,11416.8+1.9
Michelle Duncan Greens 8,3258.7+2.0
Simone KarandrewsIndependent3,8494.0+4.0
Majella ZimpelUnited Australia Party3,2613.4+3.4
John QuinnDemocratic Labour Party2,4182.5+2.4
John TurnerIndependent2,1182.2+0.1
Peter FitzpatrickConservative National Party2,0092.1+2.1
Informal7,7657.5+1.9

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Shayne Neumann Labor 49,12351.2-6.9
Robert Shearman Liberal National 46,80248.8+6.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two of these five areas, polling 56.3% in central Ipswich and 60.7% in eastern Ipswich. The LNP narrowly won in northern Ipswich (50.3%) and won more sizeable majorities in the rural areas, winning 55.7% in rural parts of the Ipswich council area and 57.7% in the Somerset council area.

This seat is a strong area for One Nation, with a vote ranging from 14.6% in northern and eastern Ipswich to 22.3% in rural Ipswich.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central Ipswich16.956.319,07019.9
North Ipswich14.649.711,74612.2
East Ipswich14.660.710,46210.9
Somerset20.742.39,70310.1
Rural Ipswich22.344.34,9905.2
Pre-poll16.449.625,44826.5
Other votes16.250.014,50615.1

Election results in Blair at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Blair Labor MP Shayne Neuman has been difficult to dislodge and avoided being thrown out in 2013. Ipswich mayor Teresa Jane Harding and former LNP candidate for Blair has rejected approaches from the LNP to stand here. There were rumors reported that former LNP QLD state leader and Mp for Nanango Deb Frecklington had interest in standing in Blair in May.

    Dennis Atkins reported that the LNP had faint hopes earlier in the year of winning Blair. But it’s now not looking on the cards despite the narrow margin.

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