Bean – Australia 2022

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  1. Easy ALP retain.

    I used to imagine Liberals potentially winning here at a high tide election, but not even sure about that any more. The new suburbs in the Molonglo vote like Weston Creek (nearby), not Gungahlin (similar Iooking growth areas) which is very good news for Labor as Woden and Tuggeranong get older and wealthier.

    Greens are no longer on the nose in Tuggeranong and I can see them doing well here. Not winnable but >20% is very achievable (Greens got 17.8% 3 party preferred in 2019 with several other left-ish candidates on the ballot)

  2. My mistake, Labor did quite well in Gungahlin in 2019, with their only “weak” booth there being the more established and wealthier Nicholls (54% Labor 2PP instead of >60% elsewhere in Gungahlin).

    The “low 50s” booths here are suburbs (outer for Canberra but “middle ring” by other city standards) full of large houses, with middle class white collar workers and their families. Somewhat religious and even socially conservative in parts. Not all that different to safe Liberal parts of Sydney and Melbourne, except the public service influence puts people here at odds woth the “small government” philosophy of conservatives.

    A byelection here wouldn’t necessarily be a snoozefest, but this seat wont ve deciding any elections. Labor can safely park front benchers here.

    Nothing to see here


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