Bass – Australia 2022

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  1. The only Abbott – Shorten – Morrison seat I can see Labor winning back, and its more due to the “ejector seat” history of the seat than anything else. The Liberal brand is strong in Tasmania but Gutwein didn’t pull McGowan style numbers and an incumbent state government has just as much chance of being a liability as time marches on.

  2. The libs had a very strong performance in northern Tasmania in the state election around white working class voters that have left labor. The result in other parts of Tasmania mean nothing when the north swings blue, expecting a swing to the liberals in this seat that won’t be quite on state levels but comfortable enough to have a seat that isn’t as marginal.

  3. Rumours that Ross Hart as again been preselected for Labor can anyone confirm this with a source? Cheers

  4. Pez
    Your assessment is compelling. The movement here was so large that there must still be more momentum. Apparently there is a very real, & conscious divide of North- South in TAS.
    I don’t think electoral history will factor here.

  5. The libs easily won 3 out of 5 seats here bass and Lyons like they did for the 2 state elections before that this. Does not mean they are certain to win here or bass at the federal election. They will depend on the climate at the time. I would pick a 1/1 split of bass and braddon

  6. Bob. No Liberal has won re-election here since the Hawke era. Why are you so confident? Archer shouldn’t be complacent about her position because she like her predecessors will be a 1 term MP if the 53.5-46.5 poll is anything to believe. You’re basically saying she will get a swing to her which never happens in Bass.

    I personally think she has preformed quite poorly in the 46th parliament. I agree Gavin will hold in Braddon but Ross Hart will win this seat from Archer. I give it a 75% chance

  7. Maybe Archer might get returned because she’s abstained from voting on a couple of social welfare issues, which might stop some of the swing but she’s still incredibly vulnerable given the political climate and the fact that it is Bass, the see-saw of Australia’s 151 electorates.

  8. Ryan, that won’t help her. She is tied to Morrison. Launceston is also trending away from the Liberal party which also hurts their case. For them to win they need to gain ground in the small rural towns along the north coast to offset such a swing away in Launceston.

    Gutwein can campaign for her everyday and it still won’t help her. People differentiate state and federal politics.

  9. Tasmanians seem to vote differently at state and federal elections (as do QLD and WA), so I wouldn’t read too much into state results.

    Archer just crossed the floor to bring on a debate for the federal integrity commission, and also seems to be pretty sceptical of the religious discrimination bill. I wonder if she’s setting herself up to run as independent. Would probably be a pretty good strategy considering Bass’ tendency to swing back and forth between Labor and Liberal. Northern Tas seems like it’d be fertile ground for independents considering it’s not really a great fit for either party.

  10. My suspicions Bridget Archer crossing the floor to support a debate on a federal corruption watchdog was about soley holding her seat.

    She has a very marginal seat of Bass with a margin 0.4%. She likely used the issue to distance herself from the Morrison government and showing shes a ‘maverick’ to her electorate likely factored in her decison to cross the floor.

    You would have to suspect Scott Morrison must be on the nose via the polling for her to do this.


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