Banks – Australia 2022

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  1. If there is any seat in Sydney that could be in danger of falling to Labor it will be this one due to the circumstances with the sitting members absence from parliament and the community, haven’t heard anything since he was out on indefinite leave but the question is why wouldn’t he retire if something is going on in his family’s person life?

    I wish him well during these circumstances however I believe the people of Banks like anyone else wants a full time working MP. If Labor is doing poorly don’t expect them to win here but expect a lower average swing to the Liberals if they are gaining ground nationwide

  2. Demographics being what they are here, I don’t see Labor having a hope in hell here. Maybe a swing towards them, but I wouldn’t even be sure of that.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney
    Agree with you 100% . Coleman’s personal problems aside Labor offer a CUB, middle class seat like this absolutely nothing. All these people care about is …..cost of living, & all things related to that issue. In 2019 Labor got caned, it will happen again. Banks is like the fulcrum of labor’s disconnect from the voters they need to reach.
    As for a swing if you left out th absent MP factor, & do you quantify that ?. Other things being equal you would have to expect a 2%+ swing to the Libs.

  4. David Coleman back working full time for over 4 months. His fundraising is impressive and the demographics continue to strongly trend his way. I don’t even see a swing to ALP to be honest.

  5. I never. Picked the swing last election to Mr Coleman think the margin is roughly 6%. The seat is roughly the state electorates of East Hills and Oatley although slightly stronger for the Libs.It would be difficult but not impossible for Labor to win. however Mr Coleman must remain the favourite. The Revesby suburbs can improve for Labor also the next redistribution may well increase the alp vote by say 2% as the Banks Barton Cook boundary is strange

  6. WD- the CUBs are exactly the kind of Liberal voters who find Scomo appealing. Its why Coleman holds this in a canter.

    The interesting phenomenon developing is that seats like Banks and Hughes and maybe even Lindsay may become stronger seats than Bradfield/Wentworth, unless a Turnbull Lib is the leader. The fact that the ALP chose Cameron Murphy/Chris Gambian twice in this part of Sydney demonstrates that the don’t “get” the demographic.

  7. David Coleman’s time off from the seat will have no impact on the result it’s got a growing number of so called aspirational voters which would probably lead to a slight swing in the seat for him with the overall swing the government will probably get in NSW.

  8. Moderate
    The Trend of blue ribbon Lib seats moved to the ALP only continues while climate change alarmism is a thing. Whether that’s another election or 3, who knows ? When energy security, in addition to exploding cost , supplants it as an issue, who can know ?. However what is clear is that our whole energy grid is dangerously, & chronically unstable, & there is no real plan to reinforce it. Gas stations more renewables, & batteries, won;’t cut it.
    Peoples tolerance for this is easily tested. Ask any plumber how long your average punter can cope with cold showers !?
    cheers WD

  9. Moderate:
    What odds that North Sydney is more marginal after the next election than Banks and even Lindsay? It already is closer than Hughes.

  10. Key demographic here is the Asian – increasingly Liberal – vote, rather than CUBs. Growing massively around Hurstville, Blakehurst and Connells Point.

  11. Of course the Asian population in Hurstville has always been signficant – when I was in primary school the school was 80-90% Asian. This was the early 2000’s, too. But equally they’ve gone from being solidly Labor circa mid 2000’s to Liberal leaning in the post-Rudd years. Which is probably why the seat has become more Liberal over time.

    Meanwhile while I can see the East Hills area having newly molded CUB’s (see how East Hills the state seat has trended in the last few elections) the Georges River Council area has long been pretty wealthy – though obviously the demographic here probably differs to that in the North Shore.

  12. High Street – Id say this one or the next. In the 2007 election Mike Bailey ran Joe Hockey to (from memory) to 55/45. So that’s the low floor in NS.
    Id expect Coleman to be roughly 57/43 after the election. In time, as the price creep from the Georges River moves north, it’ll be a 60/40 seat, similar to the present margin in Hughes.

  13. The next redistribution may push Banks eastwards out of the East Hills area and to the shoreline of Botany Bay. It’s what will most likely eventuate if the commissioners decide to eliminate the anomaly of Cook straddling the George’s River.

  14. Nicholas Weston
    The AEC were pretty clear that they needed to cross the Georges river for numbers, & their preferred place was the Captain Cook bridge. They have done all other options.
    Unless they change their ideas wrt the Illawarra seats, where will the impetus come from? I sense they will be pretty lazy with Banks & just move north to Newbridge rd ( Milperra =3000voters) & take a couple of thousand more in the east (from Cook)

  15. How have assessments on this seat changed (if it all) over the past month? Should Coleman be worried now?

  16. Australia is slowly becoming like the US, in that our political divide is becoming based on relative social conservatism rather than wealth. I reckon over time Australia’s increasingly denser inner cities will swing towards the progressive side, whereas white dominated outer suburban districts that do not contain large pockets of poverty will be the Coalition’s bread and butter.

  17. Nicholas, not here in Banks. Highly multicultural and although not as outer suburban as Cook, still a fair ways (demographically and otherwise) from the city.

  18. Quite right Nicholas. My apologies; my reply was meant to be directed to AI.

    All the same, I would be extremely surprised if Labor even came close here, Sydney Covid troubles notwithstanding.

  19. The seat is more Liberal than the state now as a whole and we have seen the same trend at a state level in East Hills and Oatley. The Waterfront suburbs reflect Sydney’s political geography. In a good year Labor can improve their vote further inland but it will be swamped by the strength of the liberal vote along the Georges River. It will likely only be won back if either the Liberals are very unpopular at the Federal level or if a popular Labor government is running for re-election.

  20. Labor has preselected former diplomat, political staffer and adviser in the UK’s “Nudge Unit” Zhi Soon as their candidate its been reported.


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