Aston – Australia 2022

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  1. Tudge has a huge personal vote here, The margin is inflated. You could argue Labor came close in 2010 because of the ”homegirl factor” But you have to remember there were many seats in Victoria that were safer than Aston back in 2010 than they are now. Menzies,Goldstein,Casey,Flinders,Higgins,McMillan/Monash,Wannon and Kooyong. That is allot of seats that were safer than Aston back then.

    There is no evidence that this seat has trended Liberal. Just a high personal following for the incumbent and the boundaries have changed very little, Labor just hasn’t recovered from the big swing against them here in 2013.

    When Tudge retires and when the environment is right for Labor this will return to around its 2010 margin.

  2. Disagree there.

    I grew up in Aston. Even with popular local members with large personal votes, the seat was still highly marginal until the early 2000s (it was seen as a major setback for Labor to fail to gain Aston at the 2001 by-election, for example). Peter Nugent was highly popular and respected locally, and he never got close to a double-digit margin despite Aston having more pro-Liberal boundaries during his tenure.

    The demographics have absolutely changed here to be more pro-Liberal: areas like Rowville and Wantirna South (where I grew up) were the End Of The Earth 30 years ago… they are fairly affluent and desirable areas. There’s also one of the huge Hillsong-y churches in Knox which has brought in a more conservative demographic.

  3. Also note the overlapping state seats have moved towards the Liberals too. Compare the two Labor landslides of 2002 and 2018, noting in 2002 the boundaries were more favourable to the Liberals.

  4. Has Tudge really a personal vote? l suspect not…. He is quite accident prone as a minister… Maybe the improvement in the liberal vote is due to demographics only

  5. You also have to see how the religious right will play out for Tudge considering his affair became public and the the Federal Court found that Tudge “engaged in conduct which can only be described as criminal,” and that Tudge had deprived the asylum seeker of his liberty

  6. As someone who lives in this seat I can confidently say that the liberal party will hold on. The reason being due to the demographic change that has made this seat more wealthy also it has become quite established which tends to favour the liberal party.

  7. Agree with Mark and Bob, It is likely that the seat will further swing to the Liberals at the next election. Back in the late 80s/Early 90s this was a mortgage belt seat full of young families. Today it is an established/settled area with an ageing population increasing full of baby boomer empty nesters. This trend favours the Liberal Party. As Melbourne urban sprawl has grown, this area is now more like middle ring suburbs rather than Outer Growth areas (as Mark mentioned) and the mortgage belt is further out such as the Casey/Cardinia . At the recent state redistribution, Ferntree Gully was proposed to be abolished and Rowville was well under quota.

  8. Nicholas –

    I classify the average mortgage belter as *the* classic Liberal-federal / Labor-state voter. They’ve got a mortgage to pay off so they like what the Liberals are saying economically at the federal level… and they’ve probably also got young kids, so they like what Labor’s saying about health and education at the state level.

  9. I live in this seat. Wantirna/Wantirna South and Rowville/Lysterfield are the only reason this seat is so safe for the Liberals, they have increasingly become very affluent and conservative. Everywhere else like Boronia, Ferntree Gully, Bayswater, Scoresby are very middle class and marginal. The closer to the Dandenongs you get the more progressive.
    This area is probably one of the least diverse, most Anglo areas of Melbourne with the exception of Wantirna South which has a sizeable Chinese community.
    Hard to believe this area has become the safest Liberal seat in Melbourne.

  10. I live in Lysterfield and I’m seeing more and more cultural diversity as I walk around Rowville and Lysterfield.
    While there are generally more older families than young families, the cross section I speak with are very keen on Climate Action and anti-corruption. I’d like to believe that antics of Tudge and the cronies of the current Fed Govt. will encourage voters to rethink how they vote.

  11. Peter H, Good point about ethnic diversity. Adam mentioned there is a large Chinese community in Wantirna South. There is also a sizeable South Asian (particularly Sri Lankan Community) in Rowville, Wantirna South, Knoxfield and Wantirna. This is a seat where the more affluent areas are more ethnically diverse than the less affluent areas such as Boronia, Bayswater etc.

  12. With the new allegations that have surfaced against Tudge here will result in a big swing against him unless proven innocent. Unlike other seats in metropolitan Victoria a 5% swing against him will not hurt him too much with him being able to hold with still a substantial buffer.

  13. Ben, see comments above by Mark Mulcair and others. As Melbourne has grown, the suburbs in this district have changed from outer suburban/mortgage belt type to middle ring, affluent areas. This changes the characteristic of the district from a marginal/swing one to a safe conservative stronghold.

    If Mark Mulcair is right about the strong Christian/Hillsong influence in this seat, it is probably similar to the Hills District or Sutherland Shire areas in Sydney, now strongly conservative leaning areas.

  14. I would say Aston is similar to the Western Part of the Hills District: Bella Vista, Kellyville, Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hils and Baulkham Hills. I feel the Eastern Part of the Hills District like Caste Hill is more like Templestowe in Menzies. Potentially suburbs such as Kings Langley and the affluent suburbs of Blacktown LGA may become the next Aston.

  15. The margin margin here may be a ‘little’ inflated due to Tudge’s personal vote which could now be affected. The region certainly leans conservative but those 54, 56 and 58 booths in the western part of Ferntree Gully would probably naturally be 50-50 without Tudge’s personal vote.

  16. Knox is still nowhere near as affluent as The Hills, or even Sutherland. Perhaps that explains why the margin is only 10% and not 20%

  17. Bayswater and Boronia are not affluent suburbs and probably the poorest in the Eastern Suburbs. Their SEIFA scores are below Melbourne’s average The Hills Shire has no suburbs with a SEIFA score less than 70 and is quite homogeneous socio-economically while Knox has some significant differences between suburbs. As mentioned in a previous comment i feel the Labor vote is suppressed in the lower income suburbs along the Belgrave line as these suburbs are not ethnically diverse. These suburbs may the Howard Battler suburbs or “Anglo working class”.

  18. I predict Tudge will retire which may help the Liberals hold on with a new candidate. If he does retire I believe this will be a record number of retirements at an election in Australian history? If not which election produced more retirements?

    Also note just because someone is pre-selected doesn’t mean they can’t change their mind before the deadline for the candidates.

  19. Its possible they could get Heidi Victoria the former member for Bayswater to run for this seat, however I am on speculating & don’t know if she intents to return to politics at all.

  20. I wouldn’t call any parts of Knox/Aston working class or poor. Most of the area is upper-middle class, while Bayswater, Boronia and Ferntree Gully are just middle class. It is a very Anglo region. Boronia/Bayswater have no where near the level of disadvantage as southeastern, northern or western Melbourne.

    I thought Heidi Victoria may have had another go at Bayswater in next years state election, but now that Ferntree Gully has been abolished it seems likely Nick Waekling will be the Lib’s candidate.

  21. Nicholas, I get your point although speaking from personal experience, I wouldn’t exactly call Sutherland affluent even in comparison to Knox.

  22. Forgot to finish my thought…

    Daniel, you are not correct. 2013 sets the recent benchmark I believe with around 30 or so retirements. In terms of government numbers, we are still one off matching 2019 and are below all five of the previous federal elections.

    Perception is an amazing thing eh


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