Adelaide – Australia 2022

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  1. ALP retain.

    Greens did very well in the City of Adelaide booths in 2019, but don’t seem to have truly taken off here like in other inner city seats around the country, and seem to struggle to get momentum even in the much more manageable state seat. It’s their strongest seat in SA but Boothby is surprisingly close on senate results. Anyone have any idea why? Even Hobart and Canberra have more Green friendly inner cities.

  2. Adelaide (state) has quite a large small-l liberal contingent by the looks of it. Greens do well across the board but Labor win the seat at federal level because they do better in the suburbs around the city

  3. This is no foregone conclusion despite practically no swing here last time. Remember Georganas lost his seat to Liberal hero Matt Williams in 2013 so anything is possible but I’m tipping a narrow Labor hold.


  5. Ryan, knock it off will you. People are entitled to their own opinions, however wrong you might think they are. Disagree if you must, but the caps is just silly bravado.

    Perhaps you’d feel more comfortable with the commentariat over at Pollbludger? At least here there is a diversity of opinions.

  6. look here 58/42 2pp i cannot find a single liberal party booth…. on these boundaries is a guaranteed labor seat….. this is much stronger for labor than either the old Adelaide and the old Hindmarsh

  7. wreathy its called sarcasm and people are entitled to their opinions, no matter how biased and deliberately impossible they are. Unfortunately I feel its borderline misinformation at this point when they mark off seats like Adelaide and Fowler, among others as being “narrow Labor holds” despite giving no reasoning, inadequate or otherwise; and criticising Chris Hayes retiring despite the fact he has health issues. I have agreed with the slightly more right-leaning commentators on this blog recently (see McMahon) however I fear the response you lot will give when Ben releases the WA pages; and see whether the misinformation will continue. There is no possible way that anyone would find a reason for WA to swing TO the Liberals, and the previous claims that Anne Aly would lose her seat because of the redistribution are quite frankly unsubstantiated, false and deliberately disingenuous. We also should stick to Boothby and Mayo because anyone who thinks Adelaide is going to be narrow (to quote Hawke) is a bum.

  8. Ryan Spencer
    Have a little compassion for us seniors (i won’t ask for respect ! mainly because i think when oldies do that it is unbelievably piss-weak) !!. We are technically challenged & i for one don’t know how to change font !!. Didn’t think of that did you !?. Besides i’ve found that it helps to shout occasionally to keep the attention of you young whippersnappers !! ( younger generations seem to have a distressingly brief attention span ) !!
    WHO EXACTLY ARE THE SUPPOSED “”Lib HACKS” !!!??? WTF!!!! Put up or S… UP !!. Name names !!. Who has (EVER) made wild predictions of LIB Landslides !!?? WTF !! HOW DARE YOU play political games of MISREPRESENTATION,DECEPTION, MISDIRECTION, on this virtuous , morally pure meeting place !? If you keep on displaying & refining such abilities someone may want to draft you to run for office. That ought to give you pause lad !!
    . I’d suggest in my own defence that i use caps sparingly, & usually for dramatic, or comic effect !!.

    Wreathy of Sydney
    All fair points mate. True,Some things just need to be said. However as you say Ryan does have the choice of more comfort, & consensus, in other places, & he has chosen to be here with us. So we do have a task, even perhaps a duty ?. May i suggest, a touch less crankiness please (I understand that it can be challenging !!,) amusing though it is !!
    cheers WD

  9. Ryan, oh no I completely understand and agree with you (see my comments on the main thread). Some have shown an incredulous bullishness for the Coalition which is not supported by the evidence. I do apologise for my angered remark earlier; it’s just that the last thing we want is stifled debate.

    That said, most commenters seem to agree that:
    1. The Libs will not win a landslide;
    2. WA will swing (probably heavily) to Labor;
    3. Slim pickings for the Libs outside of NSW.

    WD, yes…a momentary loss of composure on my part!

  10. Don’t ignore the effect of the last redistribution. The abolition of Port Adelaide means Adelaide extends further west than it used it. Like Hindmarsh, it’s basically a safe Labor seat now. My reading of graph above suggests its unlikely Trish Worth would have ever won Adelaide on these boundaries (perhaps line ball in 1996?).

  11. Wreathy of Sydney
    Good summation of what we seem in broad agreement on.
    May i be presumptuous enough to add ?
    No one is predicting PM Albanese. Credlin was saying last night that there has never been a less engaged Leader of opposition. Not only does he NOT request briefings, he doesn’t always go to the ones he is invited too !. What is this bloke thinking ?. Does he think being controlled will get him there.? WHERE IS HIS PASSION !!?? FFS.!!
    ALL & i mean all my morrison hating friends (not just lefties ) are at best in complete denial about his re -election, -just hoping for a “miracle” Trying desperately not to even think about Albo, or changing the subject to fantasies of a Penny Wong “Ascension” ( Personally i usually choke, & always {“”lose composure as you”” put it so well !} when this happens !) Their dreams, are my nightmare….!
    cheers wd

  12. Indeed Labor did 3.5% better in 2004 on the 2019 boundaries than on the 2004 boundaries. Apply that to the 1996 result and you end up with a dead heat. Having said that, the seat had become a lot safer for Labor without redistribution effects right up to 2016, since it’s not just the redistribution.


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