Stirling – Australia 2016

LIB 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Michael Keenan, since 2004.

Geography
Northern suburbs of Perth. The seat covers the suburbs of Balcatta, Balga, Carine, Karrinyup, Mirrabook, Nollamara, Stirling, Scarborough, Trigg and North Beach.

Map of Stirling's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Stirling’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Stirling lost parts of Doubleview and Innaloo to Curtin and gained Dianella from Perth. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 10.3% to 9%.

History
Stirling was first created for the 1955 election, and has always been a marginal electorate, with every member for the seat being defeated, with no-one serving in the seat for more than 11 years. Despite this seat being a marginal seat for half a century, the seat has often been held by Opposition members.

The seat was first won by Harry Webb of the ALP in 1955, when he moved from the nearby seat of Swan. Webb was defeated by Liberal Doug Cash in 1958, before winning it back in 1961. Ian Viner (LIB) won the seat in 1972, against the flow as Gough Whitlam won office. Viner held the seat for eleven years, serving as a minister in the Fraser government, as a junior minister from 1975 until 1980, when he joined the Cabinet.

Viner was defeated in 1983 by Labor’s Ron Edwards, who was defeated in 1993 by radio presenter Eoin Cameron of the Liberal Party. Cameron lost to Labor’s Jann McFarlane in 1998. Like Cameron before her, McFarlane held the seat for two terms before losing in 2004 to Liberal candidate Michael Keenan.

Keenan was re-elected in 2007, 2010 and 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Stirling is a safe seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Keenan Liberal 43,039 51.8 +1.9 50.6
Dan Caddy Labor 23,531 28.3 -3.5 30.1
Tim Clifford Greens 9,359 11.3 -1.6 10.7
Wayne Gordon Thompson Palmer United Party 3,342 4.0 +4.0 4.0
Kevin Host Australian Christians 1,704 2.1 +2.1 2.1
Kim Mubarak Independent 901 1.1 +1.1 1.0
Matueny Marial Luke Family First 686 0.8 -0.2 0.9
Alison Rowe Rise Up Australia 498 0.6 +0.6 0.6
Others 0.1
Informal 4,986 6.0

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Michael Keenan Liberal 50,083 60.3 +4.8 59.0
Dan Caddy Labor 32,977 39.7 -4.8 41.0
Polling places in Stirling at the 2013 federal election. Central in blue, East in orange, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Stirling at the 2013 federal election. Central in blue, East in orange, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, west and central.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 54.9% in the east to 67.2% in the west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.4% in the east to 12.6% in the west.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 9.4 54.9 24,845 30.8
Central 10.3 55.8 21,307 26.4
West 12.6 67.2 12,454 15.4
Other votes 11.4 61.1 22,049 27.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Stirling at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Stirling at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Stirling at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Stirling at the 2013 federal election.

8 COMMENTS

  2. AK
    Agreed. Is there a demographic shift in the east that may counterbalance this somewhat ??

  4. Stirling strikes me as an unlikely pick-up.

    I reckon this part of Perth has trended away from Labor. Look at the state seat of Balcatta, which is (or was) the Labor leaning part of Stirling. It went to the Liberals 57-43 at the last state election. Yes, that was in a landslide election. But that’s still a very lopsided result when you consider that Balcatta (nee Balga) had always been a reliably Labor seat.

  5. I think the western part of the electorate has become an affluent extension of the areas south of it so I don’t see the vote here moving so much, however eastern and central parts of the electorate are more likely to move towards Labor.

    Overall it’s an established area now, the once solidly Labor areas have become more middle class and the ALP have yet to nominate a candidate. It should be a Liberal hold.

  6. The fact that the ALP have only just selected a candidate four weeks out with no name coverage at all suggests that despite this seat’s history and the statewide polls, they are not treating this as winnable.

  7. I wouldn’t be surprised if the margin comes down significantly.
    Like most margins in WA this seem very much overinflated.
    I’d say 53-47 to the Libs.

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