LIB 5.6%
Incumbent MP
Bruce Billson, since 1996.
Geography
South-Eastern Melbourne. Dunkley covers the majority of the City of Frankston and part of the Shire of Mornington Peninsula. Main suburbs include Frankston, Mornington, Langwarrin and Seaford.
History
Dunkley was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has almost always been a marginal electorate, and swung back and forth regularly in the 1980s, although the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat since 1996, although often by slim margins. The seat’s margin never passed 2% from 1984 to 1993, although from 1996 to 2007 the Liberal margin has never fallen below 2%, suggesting the seat had become safer. Only once, in 2004, did the margin increase out of the under 6% marginal range.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor’s Bob Chynoweth. Chynoweth had won Flinders at the 1983 election, defeating new MP Peter Reith, who had won a by-election for the seat four months earlier. Chynoweth moved to Dunkley following the redistribution.
He held the seat in 1987 before losing to Liberal candidate Frank Ford in 1990. Chynoweth won the seat back in 1993.
A redistribution before the 1996 election saw Dunkley become a notional Liberal seat, and Chynoweth was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Billson. This boundary change could be partly responsible for the seat’s increased safety over the next decade.
Billson has held Dunkley ever since, having come closest to losing in 1998 when his margin was cut to 2.04%. Billson served as a Parliamentary Secretary from 2004 to 2006 and served as Minister for Veterans’ Affairs from 2006 until the defeat of the Howard government in 2007.
In 2007, Billson’s margin was cut to 4%, and it was further cut to 1% in 2010, before he increased his margin to 5.6% in 2013.
Billson was on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and served as Minister for Small Business from 2013 until he was dropped from the frontbench in September 2015.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Bruce Billson is not running for re-election.
- Ruth Stanfield (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- Jeanette Swain (Greens)
- Chris Crewther (Liberal)
- Michael Rathbone (Family First)
- Peta Murphy (Labor)
- Sally Baillieu (Arts Party)
- Lin Tregenza (Rise Up Australia)
- Tyson Jack (Animal Justice)
- Joseph Toscano (Independent)
- Tim Wilms (Liberal Democrats)
- Jeff Reaney (Australian Christians)
Assessment
Dunkley is one of the most marginal Liberal seats in Melbourne, and with the loss of Bruce Billson’s personal vote the Liberal Party will be in danger of losing Dunkley after holding it for twenty years.
Polls
- 52% to Liberal – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Billson | Liberal | 42,869 | 48.8 | +1.4 |
| Sonya Kilkenny | Labor | 27,155 | 30.9 | -7.4 |
| Simon Tiller | Greens | 8,199 | 9.3 | -2.4 |
| Kate Dolina Ryder | Palmer United Party | 3,707 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Eloise Palmi | Sex Party | 2,589 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Cameron Eastman | Family First | 1,682 | 1.9 | -0.8 |
| Rod Burt | Independent | 740 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Roy Broff | Independent | 516 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Yvonne Gentle | Rise Up Australia | 477 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,424 | 5.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Billson | Liberal | 48,861 | 55.6 | +4.5 |
| Sonya Kilkenny | Labor | 39,073 | 44.4 | -4.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: Central (including Frankston), South (including those parts in Mornington LGA), East (booths near the eastern boundary) and North (booths around Seaford).
80% of the population lives in either Central or South.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred votes in three areas, ranging from 50.7% in the centre to 62.6% in the south. The ALP won 56.6% in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 6.5% in the east to 10% in the centre and south.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 10.0 | 50.7 | 23,559 | 26.8 |
| South | 10.6 | 62.6 | 17,186 | 19.5 |
| East | 6.5 | 55.0 | 11,411 | 13.0 |
| North | 8.9 | 43.4 | 6,369 | 7.2 |
| Other votes | 9.2 | 58.3 | 29,409 | 33.4 |
This could be interesting come election night. The Libs are far from safe holding this and preselecting someone who comes from miles away further compounds their cause. Leans Lib but Turnbull isn’t faring too well in Victoria.
I agree. The only thing that stopped it from going in 2010 when the ALP had a 2PP of 55% in Victoria was Bruce Billson. Now that he is gone…
W of S
Agree completely
The redistribution before 1996 basically changed this from a Labor-leaning marginal to a Liberal-leaning one.
The Liberals will be hurt by the loss of Billson, but the trend is probably favouring them longer term. As with Isaacs, some of those bayside suburbs used to be pretty solid Labor, but are becoming more affluent as people are getting priced out of areas closer to the city.
Interesting seat. Murphy has been busy and is getting some of the big hitters in (Shorten did a town hall forum there last week).
Can’t rule this out as a surprise Labor gain on Billson’s retirement.
Pj
Completely agree. This IS labor’s dark horse. I would love it in a way, because it would be 100% Malcolm’s responsibility. Malcolm hated Bruce’s relentless advocacy of small business interest, & his constant challenges to Malcolm’s omnipotence !!!, Particularly when these challenges would be at length, in cabinet. This is Malcolm’s personal domain after all !!.
Malcolm doesn’t like other people thinking they know as much as he does!!!!.
MT knew he’d hurt himself if he fired Bruce, so he demoted him. MT was probably surprised when Bruce decided he’d go, but even so won’t mind losing a seat to get rid of the annoyance.
Now there is just Warren Entsch…!!!!
The good old “secret internal polling” has apparently been rolled out, showing Labor doing very well here. Although the same story has Labor apparently struggling in Bruce and Chisholm, so possibly take it with a grain of salt.
MM
i don’t know. It sounds plausible to me, on both counts.
I’m told that Labor is confident here and the Libs worried, though it’s hard to see either side winning by more than a few points.
The fundamentals here are probably better for the Libs (suburbs like Mornington and Mt Eliza, for example), but I think Labor has preselected better – Crewther being something of a carpetbagger, which doesn’t usually matter in metropolitan seats, but in areas like Mornington may count for a bit.
I can’t shake that this is a high water seat for Labor in an election that will be tight, but I’ll say that this is their best chance for a decade.
For what it’s worth, I went to the Mt Eliza markets a while ago and didn’t see any corflutes up (perhaps too early), but both candidates were there smooth talking the punters, so it’s definitely on.
A labor gain here is a good bet
Shorten will win the election because rusted on lib voters wont cop leftie Malcolm
Look at the swings in WA and North Sydney by elections
He will be gone on election night and scomo will be new leader
It requires quite some suspension of disbelief to entertain the notion that significant numbers of the deepest conservative Coalition voters will preference the ALP above the Coalition, or even vote informal, because they object to Turnbull.
No, bellyache in the comments section of The Australian but they’ll suck it up and vote for the Coalition just like they always have.
There is one more candidate running in Dunkley 2016: Independent Dr. Joseph Toscano.
Here is his details: s://www.facebook.com/1772309846338519/photos/a.1773061576263346.1073741827.1772309846338519/1782459268656910/?type=3&theater
Sportsbet has Coalition ahead, Labor not doing too bad
Coalition 1.58, Labor 2.30
Shifting in favour of Labor…
Coalition 1.70, Labor 2.05
Which Newspoll reflects with 2PP Lib 52%, ALP 48%
Coalition have significantly strengthened,
Coalition 1.30, Labor 3.30
No longer tracking unless it gets closer again.
Well, it shifted back. Sportsbet has this tightening
Coalition 1.50, Labor 2.50
Galaxy poll 2PP, Lib 53%, ALP 47%
… and it has shifted in favour of the Coalition again. Wouldn’t be surprised if it shifts back again in the next few days. This seems to be fluctuating a lot.
Coalition 1.25, Labor 3.75
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold, although Billson’s retirement has made this more competitive than usual.
There’s not as clear a pattern as other seats, but a general trend of a stronger swing to Labor in some of the better Labor areas, reflecting the loss of Billson’s personal vote.
The Liberals have cut it uncomfortably fine on ordinary votes, but postals favoured them quite strongly in 2013, and should get them home this time as well.