Swan Hills – WA 2021

ALP 11.9%

Incumbent MP
Jessica Shaw, since 2017.

Geography
Outer North-West of Perth. Swan Hills is one of the geographically largest seats in Perth, sitting at the top of the East Metropolitan Legislative Council region. It covers the north of Swan council area and north-eastern parts of Mundaring council area, including Ellenbrook, Aveley, Gidgegannup, Chidlow, Mount Helena and Wooroloo.

Redistribution
The border with West Swan was modified, with Swan Hills losing Aveley, Ellenbrook and Belhus and gaining Herne Hill, Middle Swan, Baskerville and Millendon. The seat also expanded south to take in part of Darling Range. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 14.5% to 11.9%.

History
Swan Hills has existed since 1989, and in that time has always been won by the party that forms government.

The seat was first won in 1989 by Labor MP Gavan Troy, who had held Mundaring since 1983. He retired in 1993 and was succeeded by Liberal candidate June van der Klashorst.

Van der Klashorst was re-elected in 1996 on improved boundaries. In 2001, she lost with a shock 11.7% swing to the Labor candidate Jaye Radisich.

Radisich retired in 2008, and the ALP ran sitting MLC Graham Giffard. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Frank Alban. Alban was re-elected in 2013.

Alban lost Swan Hills in 2017 to Labor’s Jessica Shaw.

Candidates

Assessment
Swan Hills is now held by a substantial margin but its history suggests Labor can’t be certai they would hold this seat in a close election.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jessica Shaw Labor 14,33552.2+11.849.1
Frank Alban Liberal 7,38826.9-22.228.3
Sandra OldOne Nation3,01111.0+11.011.5
Evan Webb Greens 1,9217.0+0.27.5
Lucky SinghMicro Business5121.9+1.91.6
Danusha BhowaniahMatheson for WA2751.0+1.01.2
0.9
Informal 1,2314.3

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jessica Shaw Labor 17,70364.5+18.361.9
Frank Alban Liberal 9,73435.5-18.338.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.9% in the north to 66.2% in the south-west.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.3% in the south-west to 15.8% in the north.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-West8.366.27,63034.3
North15.854.93,51015.8
South-East11.763.42,55111.5
Pre-poll12.962.92,97813.4
Other votes12.258.65,60325.2

Election results in Swan Hills at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Swan Hills really should be considered a safe Labor seat for the next decade at least given it’s margin and likely TPP margin after the election.

    Possible a margin of 20%+ after TPP.

  2. It’s only 6.4% safer than the statewide figure from 2017. Sure it may have a 20% margin in 2023 but that may not be much more than the statewide margin, and at some point the state will swing back to equilibrium. If you look at Queensland in 2012, a massive swing in one direction meant there was a lot more potential for a swing back in the other direction.

  3. ^ I second this, also, if the rest of Ellenbrook goes into West Swan (or its own seat), then Labor will lose a bit more of their margin.

  4. Indeed Swan Hills is an excellent candidate to be heavily redrawn in a future redistribution. It really is a seat of two halves with the Ellenbrook area split with West Swan and the Mundaring area split with Kalamunda. Given that, it’s pointless making predictions about future elections.

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