Riverton – WA 2021

LIB 4.4%

Incumbent MP
Mike Nahan, since 2008.

Geography
Southern Perth. Riverton lies on the southern side of the Canning River, covering the suburbs of Rossmoyne, Shelley, Riverton, BUll Creek and Willetton. Riverton covers parts of Canning and Melville council areas.

Redistribution
Riverton expanded slightly to the south and east, taking in part of Leeming from Jandakot and the remainder of Riverton from Cannington. These changes had no impact on the margin.

History
Riverton has existed since 1989.

The seat was held by Graham Kierath for the Liberal Party from 1989 until he was defeated in 2001.

Tony McRae defeated Kierath in 2001. He held the seat for the ALP for two terms.

In 2008, McRae was narrowly defeated by the Liberal Party’s Mike Nahan, losing by 64 votes. Nahan was re-elected in 2013 and 2017. Nahan served as Treasurer from 2014 to 2017, and he became leader of the opposition after the 2017 election. He stepped down as party leader in 2019.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Mike Nahan is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Riverton is a traditional safe Liberal seat, and the poor result in 2017 was a reflection of Labor’s vote reaching a high watermark. Yet polls suggest Labor could go further, and they could win here.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mike Nahan Liberal 10,04745.2-14.645.1
Marion Boswell Labor 7,49233.7+1.833.6
Thor Kerr Greens 2,0909.4+2.69.4
Tshung-Hui ChangOne Nation1,0864.9+4.95.0
Susan RegnardAustralian Christians1,0584.8+4.84.6
Gavin WaughMatheson for WA2741.2+1.21.1
Zeeshan PashaMicro Business2040.9+0.91.0
0.2
Informal 8503.7

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mike Nahan Liberal 12,09254.4-8.354.4
Marion Boswell Labor 10,15345.6+8.345.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: west, north-east and south-east.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52% in the south-east to 59% in the west.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East52.08,40234.0
West59.05,24321.2
North-East54.44,29017.3
Pre-poll53.12,1498.7
Other votes54.14,64718.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Riverton at the 2017 WA state election

4 COMMENTS

  1. Riverton was one of the most closely contested marginals in the ’00s but remained Liberal against the Labor tide of 2017. It’s a slightly more Liberal friendly configuration with Bull Creek; though as the map above shows nearly all booths returned a Lib majority and so likely would have stayed Liberal on previous configurations. Perhaps because Nahan had a strong personal vote; if so, this could be one to watch this time.

    Boundary musings: the use of Kwinana Fwy as the western boundary means taking in small pieces of Brentwood and Mount Pleasant. I wonder if that north-western section would be a better fit in Bateman.

  2. The last two redistributions (before the 2013 and 2017 elections) improved the Lib vote by 1.8% and 3.5% respectively, so this would probably have been a Labor win on the boundaries Tony McRae competed on. Rossmoyne and Bull Creek used to be in Bateman, and more Labor-voting suburbs east of Willeri Dr got transferred to Cannington (that area had Labor 2pp above 60% in 2017).

    That little corner of Brentwood would probably fit better in Bateman – it’s connected to the rest of Brentwood by Cranford Ave and the Esplanade, so it’s less disconnected from there than it is from Rossmoyne or Bull Creek.

  3. The Labor candidate getting a bit of flack from the media with a pamphlet suggesting as a local resident he knows what a great place Riverton is to live. He doesn’t live in the electorate, he lives a half an hour outside it. Although he has committed to moving in if he wins the seat. Australian Electoral Commission has suggested the pamphlet is acceptable as it doesn’t breach the act.

    Its not a great, but do I think it will make a difference in the grand scheme of things in this seat? Probably no. Maybe if the seat was a tight tussle, but if the swing is on then it’s probably going to be lost in the carnage. The fact that the incumbent is not contesting is probably going to hurt the Liberals more then this Labor gaffe.

    Liberals have blown out to $8.00 on Sportsbet in this seat. While betting is not everything, you would have to think that this wouldn’t be a good sign for the Liberals.

  4. I don’t think Nahan had a particularly strong personal vote here. This area’s gotten more Liberal over time – migrants moving into the area are mostly wealthy, because they’re wanting to send their kids to the local high schools.

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