North West Central – WA 2021

NAT 10.1% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Vince Catania, since 2013. Previously Member for Mining and Pastoral in the Legislative Council 2005-2008, Member for North West 2008-2013.

Geography
North West Central covers northern parts of Western Australia, south of the Pilbara region. The largest town is Carnarvon, and the seat also covers Denham, Exmouth, Meekatharra, Paraburdoo and Tom Price.

Redistribution
North West Central gained Kalbarri on the southern border from Moore. This change increased the Nationals margin from 9.5% to 10.1%.

History
Seats in the north west of the state have changed names and boundaries and it is difficult to identify a single predecessor to North West Central.

The current seat was formed in 2005 as North West Coastal from parts of the abolished seats of Burrup and Ningaloo. Both seats had existed since 1996.

Burrup was held over those nine years by the ALP’s Fred Riebeling, and Ningaloo was held by Rod Sweetman for the Liberal Party.

In 2005, Riebeling ran for the ALP in North West Coastal while Sweetman was unsuccessful in finding a seat elsewhere for either the Liberal Party or Family First. Riebeling won the seat despite a small swing to the Liberal Party.

In 2008, Riebeling retired and the ALP ran Vince Catania, who had served one term in the Legislative Council. Sweetman returned to run for the Liberals. The seat was renamed to North West after more areas further from the coast were added to the seat.

Catania won with no swing against him, despite only polling 36% of the vote, and the combined vote for the Liberal and National candidates almost reaching 49%. The Liberal candidate came second, with the Nationals a close third.

Catania resigned from the ALP and joined the Nationals in 2009, and he was re-elected to represent the renamed seat of North West Central in 2013, and again in 2017.

Candidates

  • Vince Catania (Nationals)
  • Robert Tonkin (One Nation)
  • Brendan Mckay (Waxit)
  • Alys McKeough (Liberal)
  • A Agyputri (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Stefan Colagiuri (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Cherie Sibosado (Labor)
  • Sandy Burt (Greens)
  • Henry Seddon (Independent)

Assessment
North West Central is a safe Nationals seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Vince Catania Nationals 2,57135.3-7.536.2
Shane Hill Labor 1,97927.1+4.426.8
Julee Westcott Liberal 1,17916.2-11.815.7
Dane SorensenOne Nation81811.2+11.211.3
Carol Green Greens 4265.8+0.85.7
Sandy DaviesIndependent2213.0+3.02.7
Adrian D’CunhaFlux731.0+1.00.9
Angela HooperMicro Business240.3+0.30.3
0.4
Informal 3494.6

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Vince Catania Nationals 4,33759.560.1
Shane Hill Labor 2,94740.539.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts. Polling places in the town of Carnarvon have been grouped together, with the remainder divided between east, north and south.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all four areas, narrowly winning in the north and winning much bigger majorities in the other three areas.

The One Nation vote peaked in the north and the Liberal vote peaked in Carnarvon.

Voter groupLIB prim %ON prim %NAT 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North14.313.450.42,34428.8
East12.610.168.51,02512.6
Carnarvon17.16.468.297912.0
South7.99.564.24305.3
Pre-poll19.79.067.41,50118.4
Other votes16.814.360.61,86122.9

Election results in North West Central at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Labor), Liberal primary votes and One Nation primary votes.

12 COMMENTS

  1. If there is one seat Labor would love to take off the Coalition its North West Central from former Labor turncoat defector Vince Catania. I have read on poll bludger a comment someone suggesting the Labor candidate is in with a good chance in this seat.

    I find it weird that the Nationals took in Catania as a former Labor MP. Chris Davis a Queensland state LNP MP quit the LNP and quit parliament of his seat of Stafford. Davis then approached Labor about being the candidate in Ashgrove against Campbell Newman. The approach was rebuffed considering Davis praised Margaret Thatcher in parliament.

    I could understand a conservative independent or One Nation, or Fisher Shooters Farmers party MP, joining the Nationals. But to get a former Labor MP and overlook their completely the other side of politics is peculiar.

  2. I think Catania was chasing Royalty for Regions money and being on the winning team. It is a seat up for grabs as Labor has a good candidate.

  3. Considering the kinds of people that make it up the ranks in the major parties, it’s no surprise that some of them completely switch political affiliations. In an election where winning overall is likely, getting back at a turncoat is a tantalising prospect.

    This election Labor appear to be trying here with announcements and an active candidate. Perhaps it’s over the prospect of more seats from Mining & Pastoral, but possibly this seat is in their sights too.

    This is the electorate of Ningaloo Reef and Juukan Gorge. The Greens have a lot to work with. Their candidate is from Exmouth and there is an environmental issue at large there. If the Greens can muster up a decent campaign and booth presence, that will help Labor after preferences. However it’s hard to tell whether that will amount to much in such a large electorate.

    The Nationals seem to be basing their campaign on opposing one vote, one value (which Labor didn’t even try to get up in this term for some reason). Will that play well? Probably.

    One to watch on election night, surprisingly enough.

  4. In 2008, Vince Catania had just won re-election as a Labor candidate and joined the Nationals at a time when the party was flexing its muscle as a balance-of-power party in a hung parliament. Why wouldn’t they take him in? What’s more, the Nationals never held this seat or its predecessors before, so it’s not like Catania is keeping out a traditional Nat.

  5. > This is the electorate of Ningaloo Reef and Juukan Gorge. The Greens have a lot to work with.

    Reality check: the Greens won 426 votes here in 2008.

  6. @David Walsh, Greens won’t win obviously, I just expect them to do better than before. A local Exmouth candidate got 35% of the vote there in the 2019 federal election, so I expect a local Exmouth candidate who also aligns with opposition to a divisive port proposal may get some traction. It’s just one booth but it is one of the larger booths in this electorate.

    The reason I bring it up is while the WA party probably didn’t direct preferences, the Greens will direct preferences to Labor. Anywhere the Greens can get a following and hand out HTVs is a boost for Labor (who seem to be looking decent here)

  7. ‘Anywhere the Greens can get a following and hand out HTVs is a boost for Labor’.

    @John

    The Greens split the Left vote, and do more harm to Labor then good. The suggestion Greens contest seats and gain a following ‘is a boost for Labor’ is laughable. David Walsh is right, the Greens got 426 votes and came fifth in the primary vote are largely irrelevant in this seat.

  8. @Political Nightwatchman I’m sure you understand how preferences work and that “splitting the vote” is irrelevant in Australian elections. Labor won some seats like Kalamunda and Joondalup last time off Green preferences.

    The two parties attract different voting demographics. This election Liberals are arguably outflanking Labor on environmental issues. Would you prefer voters upset with Labor’s embrace of coal vote Liberal, or vote Green and follow the HTV (which in most seats amounts to a full value vote for Labor).

    It won’t matter much here more than likely, but the Greens could hekp fight against Nat 60 in Exmouth (considering Labor support the port proposal)

  9. The vote (and swing) here is all over the place. Labor have won big in the shire of Ashburton; the Nats won big in Carnarvon. Meanwhile Labor got a 24.5% swing in Cue, but the Nats got a 7% swing an hour down the road in Mt Magnet. One of those seats where you’ll just have to wait for all the results to come in before you call it.

  10. The vast majority of voters don’t care about the ALP’s obsession with hating anyone who leaves their ranks, and the Nats didn’t really do anything to register vote distaste in the same way as the Liberals.

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