Joondalup – WA 2021

ALP 1.0%

Incumbent MP
Emily Hamilton, since 2017.

Geography
Northern Perth. Joondalup lies in the northeastern corner of the Joondalup council area, covering the suburbs of Connolly, Edgewater, Heathridge, Ocean Reef, Iluka, Joondalup and parts of Currambine.

Redistribution
Joondalup shifted north, losing Mullaloo and Beldon to Hillarys, and gaining Iluka and the remainder of the suburb of Joondalup from Burns Beach. These changes increased the Labor margin from 0.6% to 1.0%.

History
Joondalup was first created in 1983. It was abolished in 1989 and restored in 1996. Apart from the 2008 election, the seat has always been won by the party winning the election statewide.

Jackie Watkins held the seat throughout the 1980s for the ALP. In 1989 she moved to the new seat of Wanneroo, and lost in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Chris Baker won the restored seat of Joondalup in 1996. After one term, he lost in 2001 to Tony O’Gorman.

O’Gorman was re-elected twice, in 2005 and 2008. In 2008 he held the seat by a relatively marginal 4.3%, but suffered a minimal 0.8% swing while other Labor seats fell with bigger swings.

O’Gorman was defeated in 2013 by Liberal candidate Jan Norberger, with a swing of almost 8%. Norberger held the seat for just one term, losing in 2017 thanks to a swing of 11% to Labor’s Emily Hamilton.

Candidates

  • Jules Rikkers (Waxit)
  • Ziggi Murphy (Independent)
  • Bret Treasure (Independent)
  • Peter McLoughlin (Liberal Democrats)
  • Shanthi Hildebrandt (Australian Christians)
  • Emily Hamilton (Labor)
  • Angelo Watts (Greens)
  • Peter Westcott (Western Australia Party)
  • Howard Davey (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Sheldon Ingham (Liberal)

Assessment
While Joondalup has been won by Labor at all but one election since 2001, the seat became substantially more conservative in the redistribution prior to the 2017 election, with the Liberal margin growing from 4.5% to 10.3%. This was overcome with a big swing, but this remains the most marginal Labor seat in the state, and was won in the context of a landslide victory. It wouldn’t take much for the Liberal Party to win this seat back, but current polling suggests Labor should retain this seat and likely strengthen their margin.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jan Norberger Liberal 10,03743.3-13.142.6
Emily Hamilton Labor 9,42340.6+7.640.8
Lisa Webb Greens 2,0098.7+0.48.8
Brian BrightmanIndependent7033.0+3.02.3
Rex HostAustralian Christians3871.7-0.31.8
Nicholas HartFamily First2771.2+0.81.7
Aaron MalloyMatheson for WA1830.8+0.81.2
Peter MartinMicro Business1850.8+0.80.9
Informal 1,0704.4

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Emily Hamilton Labor 11,73750.6+11.051.0
Jan Norberger Liberal 11,46049.4-11.049.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: west, north-east and south-east.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east and south-east, ranging from 52% to almost 56%, while the Liberal Party won 52.6% in the west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West47.45,38723.1
North-East52.34,78720.6
South-East55.82,99512.9
Other votes51.95,92225.4
Pre-poll49.14,18718.0

Two-party-preferred votes in Joondalup at the 2017 WA state election

1 COMMENT

  1. Given that Joondalup stayed Labor in 2008, and has been a bellwether seat otherwise, it would seem strange that Labor barely won the seat in the 2017 landslide. The answer lies in the fact that in the past Joondalup had either no coastal component, or only a small one. You can see from the map what a difference those two booths in Ocean Reef make. On these boundaries, Joondalup is a naturally Liberal leaning seat and must be a top tier target for the opposition.

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