Jandakot – WA 2021

ALP 2.0%

Incumbent MP
Yaz Mubarakai, since 2017.

Geography
South-eastern Perth. Jandakot covers eastern parts of Cockburn LGA, along with small parts of Canning and Melville council areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Atwell, Aubin Grove, Banjup, Murdoch, North Lake and South Lake, and part of Leeming.

Redistribution
Jandakot contracted slightly on its northern edge, losing part of Leeming to Riverton. This change increased the Labor margin from 1.0% to 2.0%.

History
Jandakot in its current form was created at the 2008 election, but a seat of the same name previously existed from 1989 to 1996.

The original Jandakot was a safe Liberal seat, held by two successive Liberal MPs. The first, Barry MacKinnon, served as Opposition Leader before retiring in 1993. Mike Board won the seat in 1993.

In 1996, Jandakot was renamed to Murdoch and Board won that seat. He held it until 2005.

The restored seat of Jandakot was created as a notional Labor seat in 2008, but the seat was won by Liberal candidate Joe Francis. Francis was re-elected in 2013.

Francis lost in 2017 to Labor’s Yaz Mubarakai, who won a narrow victory after a massive 19% swing.

Candidates

  • Mihael McCoy (Liberal)
  • Marianne Pretorius (Australian Christians)
  • Heather Lonsdale (Greens)
  • Damon Miles (Liberal Democrats)
  • P Hallifax (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Jagdip Singh (Waxit)
  • Dominic Kelly (One Nation)
  • Yaz Mubarakai (Labor)

Assessment
Jandakot was a very safe Liberal seat before the massive swing to Labor in 2017. Labor should hold on here, particularly if the Labor government is re-elected with a strong result, but this seat is not a typical Labor marginal.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Yaz Mubarakai Labor 9,97339.6+12.640.6
Joe Francis Liberal 9,83039.1-25.238.1
John MurphyOne Nation1,6816.7+6.76.8
Dorinda Cox Greens 1,7356.9-0.26.7
Warnar SpykerAustralian Christians9013.6+1.93.6
Francesca GobbertAnimal Justice5872.3+2.32.3
Sat SamraMicro Business4561.8+1.81.8
Informal 1,0303.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Yaz Mubarakai Labor 12,83551.0+19.452.0
Joe Francis Liberal 12,32349.0-19.448.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: west, north-east and south-east.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east (50.7%) and south-east (57.6), while the Liberal Party won 56.1% in the west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East57.65,66124.4
North-East50.74,78620.6
West43.94,67720.2
Other votes54.05,20122.4
Pre-poll52.72,88112.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Jandakot at the 2017 WA state election

3 COMMENTS

  1. This seat was the biggest scalp for Labor last state election. Joe Francis would have been a chance of being WA state opposition leader had he held on. The fact Francis is not recontesting may show lack of level of confidence of the Liberals chances winning this seat. Judging by the margins on a usual election you would think a correction swing would be able to bring this seat back into the Liberal fold. But because there has been talk of further potential losses, or at best scenario for the Liberals status quo it may suggest Labor are favorites to retain this seat.

  2. Jandakot (as currently drawn) isn’t safe Liberal, this area just swings a lot. The Canning Vale end of the seat was in Southern River for the 2013 election, and that seat swung 15% to the Libs (this was in the dying days of the Rudd/Gillard federal govt, so there was some federal/state overlap). The 19% swing to Labor in 2017 was largely a correction for that.

  3. Good summary that, the area at the south of the seat around Leeming is strong for the Liberals but the rest is largely new and swingy outer suburbia.

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