Hillarys – WA 2021

LIB 0.1%

Incumbent MP
Peter Katsambanis, since 2017. Previously Member of the Legislative Council for North Metropolitan 2013-2017, Member of the Victorian Legislative Council for Monash Province 1996-2002.

Geography
Northern Perth. Hillarys covers central parts of the Joondalup council area, including Hillarys, Craigie, Kallaroo, Padbury and Sorrento.

Redistribution
Hillarys shifted north, losing Sorrento to Carine and gaining Mullaloo and Beldon from Joondalup. These changes wiped out the Liberal margin of 4.1%, leaving the sitting member with a margin of just 0.1%.

History
The seat of Hillarys has existed since 1996. The seat has been won by the Liberal candidate at every election.

Hillarys was won by Liberal MP Rob Johnson, who had first been elected to parliament to represent Whitford in 1993. Johnson became a minister in the Liberal government in 1999, serving until the government’s defeat in 2001. Johnson was re-elected in 2001, 2005 and 2008, and became police minister after the 2008 election.

Johnson lost his ministry in a reshuffle in 2012, and was re-elected again in 2013. Johnson resigned from the Liberal Party in early 2016, after longstanding conflict with the premier, Colin Barnett.

Johnson ran as an independent in 2017, but lost to Liberal MLC Peter Katsambanis.

Candidates

Assessment
Hillarys has a long history of being held by the Liberal Party. The splitting of the Liberal vote in 2017 wouldn’t have helped the party and they’ll be hoping that Katsambanis will have strengthened his personal vote since that election, but current polling suggests a further collapse in the Liberal vote which would likely sweep out Katsambanis.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Katsambanis Liberal 9,34339.6-21.737.8
Teresa Ritchie Labor 6,77328.7+2.533.5
Rob JohnsonIndependent4,74520.1+20.116.4
Louahna Lloyd Greens 2,1249.0-0.89.3
Elisabete RobinsonAustralian Christians5902.5-0.22.4
0.7
Informal 9383.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Katsambanis Liberal 12,74954.1-11.950.1
Teresa Ritchie Labor 10,82045.9+11.949.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (51.8%) while Labor won in the south (50.4%) and the north (52.6%).

Independent candidate Rob Johnson polled 20.7% in the south and 21.5% in the centre.

Voter groupIND prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South20.749.66,89728.1
Central21.551.85,83723.7
North0.047.43,65614.9
Pre-poll14.751.62,89811.8
Other votes15.449.75,29121.5

Election results in Hillarys at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Rob Johnson.

6 COMMENTS

  1. My seat – I live near the red 63 (Craigie), will be interested to see where all the Rob Johnson votes go…

    I’ve always voted Liberal and am one of the few who’s gone further right since the pandemic started.

  2. I know people who live in this seat who’ve warmed up to McGowan from the last election, but how they will actually vote is beyond me.

    Labor’s margin is certainly inflated by rogue Rob Johnson preferences from last time, but the redistribution really was not kind to the Liberals. I don’t know how much on the ground campaigning there is, but from what I know I’ll guess that if Labor are to pick up anything from the Liberals, it will be here.

  3. The last two redistributions together have taken about 7% off the Lib margin – rich coastal suburbs like Sorrento and Marmion now beef up the margin in Carine instead. Everything north of Whitfords Ave (half the electorate!) used to be in Joondalup or Ocean Reef. Seats in this part of Perth tend to shuffle a suburb north every time.

  4. That’s a neat split of the Labor and Liberal voting booths either side of Marmion Ave.

    The predecessor seat of Whitford was a swing seat – held by Labor during the Burke/Dowding years. I doubt Johnson really distorted the margin in 2017, unless he directed preferences to Labor, which I’m pretty sure he didn’t. The 2PP swing was pretty similar to neighbouring seats.

    Though the redistribution has turned Hillarys into a lineball seat, I suspect Katsambanis will benefit from sophomore surge.

  5. Interesting contest. Will be very close. Labor is spending and campaigning big, an active young candidate as a big contrast to Katsambanis. Very little Katsamabnis presence for the last 4 years, only the last 6 months has there been any liberal presence in the electorate.

  6. The Liberals certainly have there back against the walls in this seat. And as mentioned the redistribution has done them no favours cutting the 4.1 per cent margin to 0.4 per cent.

    You would have to think on the face values that this seat will be too difficult to hold on. The Labor candidate Caitlin Collins has previously stood for Labor in Cottesloe in 2017. She isn’t a local resident but has committed to moving into the seat if she wins. Peter Katsambanis has playing up the factor he is a local but that may no be enough withstand the swing against the Liberals.

    Joe Spagnolo who hasn’t predicted a wipe out for the Liberals in the Sunday Times has acknowledged that Hilary is likely to fall.

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