Geraldton – WA 2021

LIB 1.3%

Incumbent MP
Ian Blayney (Nationals), since 2008.

Geography
The district of Geraldton covers the town of Geraldton and a small amount of rural areas around the town. The boundaries match the boundaries of the former City of Geraldton-Greenough which existed briefly from 2007 to 2011.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Geraldton has existed since 1890. The district was dominated by the Labor Party from 1917 to 1991. Since the 1991 by-election, the Liberal Party has won the seat at all but two elections.

Jeff Carr held the seat for Labor from 1974 until 1991. In 1991 he was dumped from the ministry, and resigned. The ensuing by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bob Bloffwitch.

Bloffwitch was re-elected in 1993 and 1996, and lost in a big swing to Labor candidate Shane Hill in 2001.

The 2008 redistribution expanded Geraldton to take in surrounding areas, and made the seat a notional Liberal seat. Hill was defeated by Liberal candidate Ian Blayney, and Blayney was re-elected in 2013.

Blayney resigned from the Liberal Party in mid-2019 and joined the Nationals soon after.

Candidates

  • Bey Bey Kung (Waxit)
  • Andrew Genovese (Liberal Democrats)
  • Rob Dines (Liberal)
  • Chris Mellon (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Bruce Davies (One Nation)
  • Lara Dalton (Labor)
  • Mark James Long (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Ian Blayney (Nationals)
  • Matt Roberts (Greens)

Assessment
The defection of the sitting MP to the Nationals makes this race even more unpredictable than it would normally be. The Nationals fell 10% short of coming in the top two in 2017, so the incumbent running will likely be enough for the Nationals to make the top two, but it’s not guaranteed.

There is also a real chance Labor could sweep in here if the statewide polls are accurate and Labor wins in an even bigger landslide than in 2017.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Lara Dalton Labor 7,07133.7+16.6
Ian Blayney Liberal 5,80827.7-19.9
Paul Brown Nationals 3,66917.5-8.9
Wayne MartinOne Nation1,9799.4+9.4
Paul Connolly Greens 8494.0-2.4
David CaudwellShooters, Fishers & Farmers7913.8+3.8
Greg HallAustralian Christians4132.0-0.5
Victor TantiIndependent3941.9+1.9
Informal 9374.3

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ian Blayney Liberal 10,75951.3-21.5
Lara Dalton Labor 10,20148.7+21.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and north.

The Liberal Party won a majority in the north (50.1%) and the east (61.7%), while Labor won 54.5% in the centre.

The Nationals came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.2% in the centre to 23.9% in the east.

Voter groupNAT prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central15.245.56,27129.9
North17.550.13,60117.2
East23.961.71,3406.4
Pre-poll19.654.17,08333.8
Other votes14.053.72,67912.8

Election results in Geraldton at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Nationals primary votes.

2 COMMENTS

  1. It seems Labor would be favourites to win Geraldton just on the statewide swing but regional swings can go their own way and is dependent on the quality of the candidate. While there is a sitting MP he is also a defector to the Nationals, don’t know how that might play out it really depends on his personal level of support and the Nationals campaign. I’m not familiar with the ins and outs of Geraldton but its economy has been somewhat stagnant since the end of the mining boom, so it could be persuaded by a strong regionalist candidate. I haven’t heard anything from Ian Blayney since he entered parliament so my assumption is he isn’t a strong candidate, or if he is its not been conveyed by media in Perth.

  2. “its not been conveyed by media in Perth.”

    Heh! Perth’s a one-newspaper town, and that paper tends to put a giant Harvey Norman ad all over their front page. Unless there’s a major storm or a meth bust, news about Geraldton doesn’t make it down here. I know nothing about Blayney beyond that he exists, but Vince Catania also defected to the Nats and he hasn’t had any problems getting re-elected. It’s probably a good omen.

    If Blayney can get into second he’d be pretty good odds to win, as the Libs preference the Nats much more strongly than the other way around. Labor got almost 40% of preferences in 2017, from parties you wouldn’t expect to favour Labor. If the Libs come third, that proportion will drop, so Labor would want at least 40% of the primary vote to win.

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