Darling Range – WA 2021

LIB 3.5%

Incumbent MP
Alyssa Hayden, since 2018.

Geography
Eastern Perth. Darling Range is the outermost seat on the eastern edge of Perth, covering outer parts of Armadale and Rockingham council areas, and covering the entire Serpentine-Jarrahdale council area.

The seat covers Karragullen, Roleystone, Bedfordale, Harrisdale, Byford, Darling Downs, Oakford, Mundijong, Serpentine, Jarrahdale, Malmalling and parts of Kelmscott and Mount Richon.

Redistribution
Darling Range retracted to a smaller area, losing a slice of its south-western edge to Baldivis, and losing its northern end to Kalamunda and Swan Hills. This change slightly improved the position for Labor, increasing their margin on 2017 votes from 5.8% to 6.0%.

History
The seat of Darling Range has existed since 1950, with the exception of a single term in the 1970s when it was briefly abolished. The seat was originally a Country Party seat but has been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election since 1962.

Ray Owen held the seat for the Country Party from 1950 to 1962, followed by Liberal MP Kenn Dunn until 1971.

In 1971, the Liberal Party’s Ian Thompson won the seat. In 1974, the seat was renamed Kalamunda, and Thompson moved to that seat. He stayed in that seat until it was abolished in 1989, despite Darling Range being restored in 1977.

George Spriggs won Darling Range in 1977, and was followed by Bob Greig in 1987.

In 1989, the seat of Kalamunda was abolished and Ian Thompson returned to Darling Range. He was re-elected, but in 1990 he resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent, and retired in 1993.

John Day won Darling Range in 1993. He held the seat for the next fifteen years. In 2008, the redistribution moved much of Darling Range back into the restored seat of Kalamunda while a large part of the abolished seat of Serpentine-Jarrahdale was moved into Darling Range.

Day moved to Kalamunda, and Tony Simpson, who had won Serpentine-Jarrahdale in 2005, moved to Darling Range. Day became a minister in the Liberal/National government after the 2008 election, while Simpson became a minister after the 2013 election.

Simpson lost in 2017 to Labor candidate Barry Urban. Later that year Urban resigned from the ALP after it emerged that he had been wearing a medal for overseas police service which he had not been awarded. Urban resigned from parliament in 2018.

The ensuing 2018 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Alyssa Hayden.

Candidates

  • Matthew Thompson (Liberal Democrats)
  • Judith Maree Congrene (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Alan Svilicic (Waxit)
  • Brett Nathan Clarke (Western Australia Party)
  • Alyssa Hayden (Liberal)
  • Eric Eikelboom (Australian Christians)
  • Anthony Fenech (One Nation)
  • Dean Strautins (Independent)
  • Hugh Jones (Labor)
  • Matt Lacey (Greens)

Assessment
Darling Range was a surprise win for Labor in 2017, and it was not a surprise that the Liberal Party regained the seat in 2018. In normal circumstances you would expect a Liberal win here, but current polls suggest Labor is on track for a landslide victory that would likely include Darling Range.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Barry Urban Labor 11,01241.5+12.541.8
Tony Simpson Liberal 8,05630.4-25.229.9
Sharon PolgarOne Nation2,3138.7+8.78.7
Iwan Boskamp Greens 2,0337.7-1.87.7
Derek BruningAustralian Christians1,1744.4-0.54.7
Stuart OstleShooters, Fishers & Farmers1,1234.2+4.24.2
Craig BallingerMicro Business3171.2+1.21.2
Chris BarkerFlux1940.7+0.70.7
Jake McCoullLiberal Democrats1630.6+0.60.6
Manamal FroumisIndependent1340.5+0.50.5
Informal 1,3574.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Barry Urban Labor 14,78855.8+18.956.0
Tony Simpson Liberal 11,71244.2-18.944.0

2018 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Alyssa Hayden Liberal 8,41834.5+4.1
Tania Lawrence Labor 7,80932.0-9.5
Rod CaddiesOne Nation1,8947.8-1.0
Anthony Pyle Greens 1,4275.8-1.8
Russell GoodrickWestern Australia Party1,4135.8+5.8
Erick EikelboomAustralian Christians1,1454.7+0.3
Stuart OstleShooters, Fishers & Farmers1,1124.6+0.3
Jehni Thomas-WurthAnimal Justice8033.3+3.3
Doug ShawIndependent1460.6+0.6
George O’ByrneIndependent1370.6+0.6
John WattFluoride Free WA1060.4+0.4
Informal1,1264.4

2018 by-election two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Alyssa Hayden Liberal 13,03953.5+9.3
Tania Lawrence Labor 11,33146.5-9.3

2017 booth breakdown

Booths used at the 2017 state election have been divided into three sub-areas within the new electoral boundaries for Darling Range: central, north and south. The “north” covers those booths in Armadale local government areas, while central and south covers those in Serpentine-Jarrahdale.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the south to 56.9% in the centre.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central56.96,88129.1
North56.26,36526.9
South52.43,01412.8
Pre-poll57.32,74211.6
Other votes55.94,63319.6

2018 by-election booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south. Since these results are based on the 2017 boundaries they cover different areas to the breakdown of 2017 results. The “central” area covers those booths in Armadale council area while the “south” covers Serpentine-Jarrahdale.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, winning the central area narrowly and winning over 55% in the north and south.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central50.34,89220.0
North55.21,2735.2
South55.48,43134.5
Pre-poll51.27,30329.9
Other votes58.12,51110.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Darling Range at the 2017 WA state election

Two-party-preferred votes at the 2018 Darling Range by-election

6 COMMENTS

  1. Ben, Why are you saying the Liberal party is likely to hold their own seats? Did you see the polling saying Labor was above 60%+ in the TPP? That would be an annihilation for the Liberal party. It could tighten definitely and it probably will. But it seems likely that Labor will get no swing at all against them or a slight swing to them which will ensure that they pick up a few seats. I really don’t seen the Liberal party holding here. Why do you think they rolled Liza Harvey. Kirkup might be a Turnbull Liberal. But leaders rarely change outcomes of elections. If the swing is on. The swing is on. LAB Recovery/Gain

  2. pollbludger.net/2020/10/02/utting-research-16-swing-to-labor-in-wa-marginals/

    There were a few other posts on Pollbludger somewhere. I believe these were Private/Internal polls so they weren’t on The Australian or Nielsen or anywhere. It also stated McGowan had around an 80-90% Approval statewide. I guess we will have to wait for more polls

  3. An interesting note, this will be the 9th election in 8 years this general region has had to go to the polls, and with a federal election looming, it’s quite probably there will soon be 10 in 9 soon.

    As far as predictions are concerned I wouldn’t bet on either side winning, wait and see would be my call.

  4. Hayden is delusional. Why can’t she admit her parties chances are grim like her leader said. Why do politicians lie and say they will win when they know they will lose? Is it so donors and campaigners don’t abandon them? Well at least if you be honest about your chances. You still have a chance to save a few seats but to say Labor will lose seats this election is beyond delusional unless the TPP is under 56% for Labor and she is 12% off if the latest poll is anything to believe. Her political career will be over on March 13th. I predict the margin here will be bigger for Labor than it will be in Hillarys and Dawesville. I can see a 8-9% swing to Labor from the Byelection here

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