Churchlands – WA 2021

LIB 11.7%

Incumbent MP
Sean L’Estrange, since 2013.

Geography
Inner north of Perth. Churchlands covers the suburbs of Churchlands, Floreat, Glendalough, City Beach, Wembley Downs and Woodland. Churchlands covers parts of the Cambridge and Stirling council areas.

Redistribution
Churchlands shifted north, losing City Beach to Cottesloe and gaining the southern half of Doubleview and a small part of Scarborough from the seat of Scaborough. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 13.2% to 11.7%.

History
The seat of Churchlands has existed since 1996. The seat was held for an independent for most of that time, and by the Liberal Party since 2013.

Churchlands was first won in 1996 by independent MP Liz Constable. Constable had first been elected to parliament at the 1991 Floreat by-election. She was a former member of the Liberal Party who had resigned to run for the by-election.

Constable was re-elected to parliament in 1993, 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2008, and became a minister in the Liberal-led government after the 2008 election. Constable retired at the 2013 election.

Liberal candidate Sean L’Estrange was elected to represent Churchlands in 2013, and he was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Churchlands is a typical safe Liberal seat. The Liberal Party will probably hold this seat but no Liberal seat is safe if there is a massive Labor landslide.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Sean L’Estrange Liberal 12,84154.9-3.953.1
Paul Lilburne Labor 5,31022.7+6.923.5
Joanna Gurak Greens 3,10313.3+5.614.1
Jim BivoltsisIndependent1,0564.5+1.14.1
Paul PhillipsAustralian Christians4812.1+0.62.1
Daljeet GillMicro Business3481.5+1.51.5
Jack GarberMatheson for WA2451.0+1.01.1
0.4
Informal 7873.3

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Sean L’Estrange Liberal 14,77863.2-6.761.7
Paul Lilburne Labor 8,59936.8+6.738.3

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.3% in the east to 66.5% in the centre.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.3% in the centre to 16.6% in the east.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central11.366.56,26225.7
East16.656.35,61723.1
West14.463.95,30621.8
Pre-poll12.659.32,0178.3
Other votes15.060.55,14821.1

Election results in Churchlands at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Very much surprised no genuine strong Independent challenger in this seat. Was held by Liz Constable for 22 years and is the perfect seat for a strong independent challenge. It’s small in geographic terms, quite homogenous in socio-economic terms (affluent, suburban, highly educated) and is only held by an 11.7% margin.

    If the Liberal Party does get a truly disastrous election result, Churchlands may a elect it’s first ever Labor MP.

  2. That indeed would be a disaster for the Liberals… if any of the Golden Triangle goes red it will be Nedlands if you ask me.

  3. Churchlands should be a Liberal hold, but if the swing is big enough and overrepresented in previously safe Liberal seats then who knows maybe Labor could win here. Agree that Nedlands is a more likely gain for Labor, but even there it’s no more than a 50/50 possibility at best that is made somewhat more potentially winnable by a rather ineffectual local MP.

  4. It’s amusing to think that the reactionary religious right might be in danger of losing a seat called Churchlands.

  5. Speaking of this seat, is the Labor candidate any relation to the late Labor premier John Tonkin?

  6. Liberal retain. Although it may be very close, I just don’t see this area budging, although it may be close-ish. Nedlands would expect to fall before this one.

  7. 0.2% for the Labor Party on the current count here, I don’t think it will be enough for them to win it once postal votes come in, but if they somehow do it will be the biggest upset in the election in my opinion.

    I used to live here, no way in hell could you have been able to convince me even a few weeks ago that we would be looking at a result like this today.

  8. Sean L’Estrange was really punished by voters on polling day for his trainwreck doorstop and the result speaks for itself.

    He might be able to hang on with prepolls and postals, but I suppose at some point in this term he may be tapped on the shoulder to make way for some outside talent to at least give the Liberals some hope of return to normality.

  9. Even if he holds on it would be suicidal to make him leader. He was part of the Barnett days and is a typical conservative both will not win back even seats like Carine and Nedlands at the next election

    If they want a chance they are better with Dave or Libby but Dave is probably better because he is a fresh face. Libby might be able to claw back rural support as she is a regional mp. Dave is the right guy to win back some city seats they lost this time

  10. One would think Labor will win Churchlands from here…Libs only 60 votes ahead with the bulk of absents presumably unaccounted for and if previous elections are any guide these should favour Labor significantly more than the ordinary and pre-poll vote.

  11. Who would have ever thought that Churchlands would be Labor. Considering at the 2013 election the margin was 20%.

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