Bicton – WA 2021

ALP 3.5%

Incumbent MP
Lisa O’Malley, since 2017.

Geography
Bicton covers suburbs on the south side of the Swan River, including Attadale, Melville, East Fremantle. The seat covers the north-western corner of the Melville council area, most of the East Fremantle council area and a small part of the City of Fremantle.

Redistribution
Bicton expanded slightly on its south-western corner, gaining more of the suburb of East Fremantle from the seat of Fremantle. This change expanded the Labor margin from 2.9% to 3.5%.

History
Bicton was created in 2017, primarily replacing Alfred Cove, with almost as many voters moved into Bicton from Fremantle.

The seat of Alfred Cove was created in 1996 as a notional safe Liberal seat, with a margin of over 20%.

In 1996, sitting Liberal Member for Melville Doug Shave decided to run for the new seat of Alfred Cove. He was challenged for preselection by Penny Hearne.

Shave narrowly defeated Hearne, and she resigned from the Liberal Party to run as an independent. Shave narrowly held on by a 2.4% margin.

In 2001, the ALP did not run in Alfred Cove, and a number of minor parties and independents targeted the seat.

Janet Woollard ran for the Liberals for Forests party, and polled just over 20% of the primary vote, while another independent also polled 20% of the vote. Shave’s vote fell to under 33%, and he lost to Woollard on preferences. Woollard achieved a 7.4% margin.

Woollard’s margin has been reduced at every election since 2001. Her vote after preferences fell to 54.6% in 2005 and 51% in 2008.

In 2013, Woollard dropped to third place, and lost the seat to Liberal candidate Dean Nalder.

The 2017 redistribution abolished Alfred Cove and created a new seat of Bicton. Nalder shifted to the redrawn electorate of Bateman, and was re-elected there. He currently serves as shadow treasurer.

Liberal MP Matt Taylor, who had held the seat of Bateman since 2013, attempted to move to Bicton, but lost to Labor candidate Lisa O’Malley.

Candidates

  • Jonathon Graham (One Nation)
  • Nicole Robins (Liberal)
  • Michael Prinz (Liberal Democrats)
  • Annie Hill Otness (Greens)
  • Silvia Hirsbrunner (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Deonne Kingsford (Australian Christians)
  • Lisa O’Malley (Labor)

Assessment
Bicton covers an area that has traditionally been Liberal-held. Labor will probably need to win a comfortable statewide victory to hold on here.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Matt Taylor Liberal 9,73443.0-9.942.4
Lisa O’Malley Labor 8,95539.6+11.839.9
Louise Dickmann Greens 2,40610.6-1.110.9
Steve KepertIndependent7343.2+3.23.1
Colleen SaporitaAnimal Justice3251.4+1.41.4
Stephen Wardell-JohnsonAustralian Christians2371.0+1.01.1
Richard KorfantyMicro Business2261.0+1.01.0
0.3
Informal 6953.0

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Lisa O’Malley Labor 11,96852.9+13.053.5
Matt Taylor Liberal 10,64147.1-13.046.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (52.2%) and the south-west (62.3%). The Liberal party won 54.5% in the north.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.1% in the north to 12.4% in the south-west.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North8.145.57,20230.8
South-West12.462.34,63419.8
South-East9.052.22,86912.3
Pre-poll11.656.93,14313.4
Other votes13.955.25,53523.7

Election results in Bicton at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

4 COMMENTS

  1. This looks very much like the sort of seat Labor could only win in a very good election for the party, which 2017 was, and 2021 seems likely to be at this stage. That big blue 62 in Attadale is more in line with my understanding of this bit of Perth. A lot depends on how well O’Malley has been able to build a profile for herself locally since 2017

    Not willing to make a solid prediction yet

  2. Bicton was won on a local campaign of no ROE FREEWAY. The current member did well on that matter and won. Melville has been a strong Labor area in the past.

  3. O’Malley was also visible in opposing the Wave Park. Nicole Robins is a local councillor aligned with former mayor Russell Aubrey. Not the best candidate in this part of Melville, would do better in a seat closer to her council ward. If this is shaping up to be a good election for Labor, then O’Malley should be safe, she’s a perfectly good enough local member, but this isn’t a safe seat by any means.

  4. O’Malley was also helped last time by the Liberal candidate being the MLA for Bateman, who got kicked out of his seat because Dean Nalder didn’t want to run here.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here