Baldivis – WA 2021

ALP 3.7% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Reece Whitby, since 2017.

Geography
Southern coastal fringe of Perth. The seat of Baldivis covers the suburbs of Baldivis, Wellard and parts of Waikiki, Warnbro, Cooloongup. A majority of the seat lies in the Rockingham council area, with another part in the Kwinana council area.

Redistribution
Baldivis expanded to the east, taking in a sparsely populated area east of the Kwinana Freeway, and losing the suburb of Bertram to Kwinana at the northern tip of the electorate. This reduced the Labor margin from 7.2% to 3.7%.

History
Baldivis was created as a new seat in 2017, mostly taking in areas previously contained in the neighbouring seat of Kwinana. Kwinana was created as a very safe Labor seat in 2008 following the redistribution caused by the introduction of one-vote-one-value reforms.

The Labor candidate, Roger Cook, was challenged in 2008 by local mayor Carol Adams, running as an independent. Despite the presumed margin, Adams came close to defeating Cook, polling 49.2% of the two-candidate vote. Adams again challenged Cook in 2013, but Cook won with a slightly larger margin, with 52.6% of the vote after preferences.

Baldivis was won in 2017 by Labor’s Reece Whitby, who defeated independent candidate Matt Whitfield.

Candidates

  • Andrea Tokaji (Independent)
  • Brianna Eden McLernon (Waxit)
  • Luke Derrick (Liberal)
  • Chaz Rizzo (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Martin Suter (One Nation)
  • David Marshall (Liberal Democrats)
  • Jody Freeman (Greens)
  • Reece Whitby (Labor)

Assessment
Baldivis was closer than usual in 2017 because of the presence of the independent – the seat is safer in a Labor vs Liberal contest. The emergence of a strong independent might make this seat interesting again but it should otherwise stay with Labor.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Reece Whitby Labor 11,33945.3+1.842.7
Matt WhitfieldIndependent5,34621.4+21.423.6
Malcolm George Liberal 3,57114.3-18.814.6
John ZurakowskiOne Nation1,8547.4+7.47.7
Christine Fegebank Greens 1,4125.6-0.85.2
Yvette HolmesAustralian Christians6142.5+0.32.5
Craig HamersleyIndependent3901.6+1.61.8
Kath SummersIndependent2370.9+0.91.0
Prabhpreet MakkarMicro Business2491.0+1.00.8
0.1
Informal 1,1884.5

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Reece Whitby Labor 14,30657.253.7
Matt WhitfieldIndependent10,69542.846.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts: central, north, south and west.

Labor won over 60% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the north and west, while independent candidate Matt Whitfield won a narrower majority in the south and centre.

The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.6% in the west to 17.7% in the north.

Voter groupLIB prim %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
South13.046.95,60925.8
Central14.648.82,29710.6
West11.662.41,6837.8
North17.760.11,2185.6
Pre-poll14.952.15,35424.7
Other votes16.260.25,54525.5

Election results in Baldivis at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs independent) and Liberal primary votes.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Labor to hold is an obvious prediction regarding the state wide polling. But this seat may swing much bigger towards Labor then other seats as councilor Matt Whitfield is not running again as an independent. And there is 21.4% of the vote that is up for grabs for the incumbent. The 3.7% margin may not be a fair reflection of how safe this Labor seat can be, with it listed at 16.6% notional Labor before the last state election.

    Interestingly former Liberal candidate Andrea Tokaji who was dumped over social media posts will be running as an independent.

    A bit of trivia Baldis MP Reece Whitby ran unsuccessfully as the Labor candidate for Morley in 2008 and 2013.

  2. I reckon we’ll see Whitfield again. He won his council booth with over 80% later on in 2017 – even with the low turnout that’s typical of local govt elections, those figures would make him viable at state level, especially on the new boundaries. By 2025 this seat will have lost the rest of Kwinana council.

    That John Calvin booth (the small one on the edge of Lake Cooloongup) is seriously weird. 29.1% for Australian Christians, when their next best booth result was 3.4% at Leda. 78 votes makes me think it’s a typo nobody caught – 7 or 8 votes would be a tick below 3%, which seems a lot more reasonable.

    I’m cross-checking it with the upper house figures, but that PDF is extraordinarily painful to deal with. Stay tuned.

  3. Matt Whitfield won’t be running! He has moved to NZ.
    Does anyone know much about Luke Derrick the new Lib candidate? From what I can gather he schooled at Tranby and left year 12 in 2017.

  4. Labor. Reece Whitby best candidate for Baldivis Reece win last election and has done a great job for Baldivis. He got done what we asked for during his term.

  5. BoP – No chance that’s a typo. ACP poll big in the Free Reformed community – observe how well they do in Armadale at each election.

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