Albany – WA 2021

ALP 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Peter Watson, since 2001.

Geography
The seat of Albany covers the same area as the City of Albany. Most of the population is in the Albany urban area.

Redistribution
Albany’s boundaries were reverted to their 2013 boundaries, undoing the change in 2017 which added Jerramungup Shire. This change increased the Labor margin from 5.1% to 5.9%.

History
Albany has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1890.

The seat was held by the ALP from 1924 until 1936, then by the Country Party from 1936 until 1956. The ALP’s Jack Hall and Wyndham Cook held the seat from 1956 until 1974 in succession.

Leo Watt won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1974.  He held the seat for two decades, retiring in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Kevin Prince saw off a fierce challenge from the National Party in 1993, and was re-elected in 1996.

In 2001, Prince was defeated by the ALP’s Peter Watson. Watson has been re-elected four times.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Peter Watson is not running for re-election.

  • Sandra Madeo (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Mal Dodson (Liberal Democrats)
  • Emil Bacanaru (Waxit)
  • Barry Purcell (Sustainable Australia)
  • Karrie Louden (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Scott Leary (Liberal)
  • Caroline Cull (Independent)
  • Michelle Kinsella (One Nation)
  • Nelson Gilmour (Greens)
  • Rebecca Stephens (Labor)
  • Ian ‘t Hart (Australian Christians)
  • Delma Baesjou (Nationals)

Assessment
Albany has been held by Labor for the last two decades, but has usually been a very close seat. It is the dictionary definition of a key marginal. Albany is Labor’s 30th most safe seat, which means a uniform swing sufficient to tip Labor out in Albany would leave them in minority. Peter Watson is retiring, which will make things harder for Labor.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Watson Labor 10,34943.9+5.544.6
Robert Sutton Nationals 4,75020.1-2.019.6
Greg Stocks Liberal 4,14917.6-10.917.3
Anthony GriffithsOne Nation1,6246.9+6.96.8
David Rastrick Greens 1,5476.6+1.26.6
Ian ‘t HartAustralian Christians1,1674.9+1.15.0
Informal 8383.4

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Watson Labor 12,98855.155.9
Robert Sutton Nationals 10,58544.944.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts: Albany, King River, west and east.

Labor won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of four areas, winning over 58% in the Albany urban area. The Nationals won 65.4% in the sparsely-populated east of the seat.

The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.6% in the east to 19.7% in King River.

Voter groupLIB prim %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Albany15.058.28,40936.6
King River19.753.42,70911.8
West17.152.21,8388.0
East14.634.63091.3
Pre-poll18.656.56,66529.0
Other votes19.154.63,02113.2

Election results in Albany at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Nationals) and Liberal primary votes.

4 COMMENTS

  1. With Watson’s retirement, Albany looms as a likely Labor loss no matter how well the party does statewide. Fascinating that the Nationals ran second last time. But given the Labor vote has furthest to fall in the city of Albany itself, that ought to benefit the Liberals.

  2. I think in normal times Albany would be written off as a likely Labor loss, however given the current near universal approval of the McGowan government I expect that Labor will retain Albany.

  3. If Labor do hold this in 2021, they should lose in 2025 – the government may be popular now, but that won’t last forever (see NSW under Neville Wran, or from my side of politics, QLD under Campbell Newman)

  4. all Albany mps once elected were long term…… so if labor holds this time the sitting mp may be there for a while…. this is the personal vote of country mps …..look at Bunbury… labor’s good win related to the loss of the lnp mp;’ s personal vote plus the 2017 swing

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here