Mining and Pastoral – WA 2017

Incumbent MLCs

  • Ken Baston (Liberal), since 2005.
  • Jacqui Boydell (Nationals), since 2013.
  • Robin Chapple (Greens), since 2009. Previously 2001-2005.
  • Stephen Dawson (Labor), since 2013.
  • Dave Grills (Nationals), since 2013.
  • Mark Lewis (Liberal), since 2013.

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Kalgoorlie NAT 4.1% vs LIB North West Central NAT 9.6% vs LIB
Kimberley ALP 5.1% Pilbara NAT 11.5% vs ALP

Mining and Pastoral covers a majority of the state’s land mass, stretching from Kalgoorlie to the Kimberley and as far west as Carnarvon.

The Nationals hold three out of four seats in the region, while Kimberley is held by Labor.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The Mining and Pastoral region previously included five electorates, but the seat of Eyre was abolished, with its territory split between Kalgoorlie and Roe (in the Agricultural region) in the recent redistribution.

No changes were made to the boundaries of Pilbara and Kimberley. North West Central expanded to take in parts of Kalgoorlie, while Kalgoorlie shifted south to the ocean. The city of Esperance was shifted out of the region into the Agricultural region.

The redistribution improved the Labor vote by 1.8% and the Greens vote by 0.9%, while cutting the combined Liberal-Nationals vote by 2.7%.

History
Mining and Pastoral was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

The ALP won three seats in 1989, and the Liberal Party won two seats. The same result was replicated in 1993 and 1996.

In 2001, both the ALP and the Liberal Party lost a seat, with those seats going to the Greens and One Nation.

In 2005, the Greens and One Nation both lost their seats, returning to the pattern of three Labor and two Liberal.

In 2009, Mining and Pastoral gained a sixth seat. The ALP lost their third seat, and the two leftover seats went to the Greens and the Nationals. This was the first time the Nationals won a seat in Mining and Pastoral.

In 2013, the Liberal Party maintained its two seats, and the Greens maintained their one seat. Labor lost its second seat to the Nationals.

2013 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota Seats Redist % Redist q.
Liberal 18,355 32.1 +2.3 2.2480 2 30.9 2.1591
Nationals 15,974 28.0 +6.5 1.9564 2 26.5 1.8527
Labor 12,789 22.4 -11.7 1.5663 1 24.2 1.6902
Greens 5,107 8.9 0.0 0.6255 1 9.8 0.6865
Shooters and Fishers 2,121 3.7 +3.7 0.2598 0 3.8 0.2637
Family First 1,273 2.2 +0.6 0.1559 0 2.4 0.1668
Australian Christians 1,016 1.8 -0.1 0.1244 0 1.6 0.1147
Frank Bertola independents 511 0.9 +0.9 0.0626 0 0.9 0.0646

Four out of six seats were decided on primary votes, with the Liberal Party winning two seats, and the Nationals and Labor each winning one seat. The second Nationals candidate was very close to a quota on primary votes.

Let’s fast forward to the last eight candidates. The second Nationals candidate (Grills) is still sitting below a quota, having received very few preferences. The Greens and Labor are competing for the sixth seat:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9509
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6273
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5619
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.2619
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2425
  • Rose (FFP) – 0.1597
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1253
  • Bertola (IND) – 0.0653

Preferences from independent Frank Bertola pushed the Australian Christians candidate ahead of Family First:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9516
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6289
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5633
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.2675
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2433
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1794
  • Rose (FFP) – 0.1607

Most Family First preferences favoured the Shooters and Fishers:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9530
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6318
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5660
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.3947
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2648
  • Mansell (AUC) – 0.1845

Preferences from Christian candidate Mansell favoured the Shooters and Fishers, bringing them close to overtaking the Labor candidate:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9597
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6336
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5674
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.5611
  • Coad (LIB) – 0.2728

Liberal preferences pushed the Shooters into second place, while inching the Nationals closer to victory:

  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9773
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.7827
  • Chapple (GRN) – 0.6614
  • Murie (ALP) – 0.5724

The Labor candidate, having been stranded without preferences, was eliminated and elected the Greens’ Robin Chapple to the fifth seat, and bringing the Nationals’ Grills within six votes of victory:

  • Chapple (GRN) – 1.1913
  • Grills (NAT) – 0.9993
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.8028

Most Greens preferences flowed to the Shooters, but the Nationals narrowly held on. Indeed, the Nationals would have won even if every Greens preference had gone to the Shooters:

  • Grills (NAT) – 1.0086
  • Parkes (SFP) – 0.9813

Candidates

  • A – Anne Porter (Fluoride Free WA)
  • B – Natasha Rogers (Micro Business Party)
  • C – Stefan Colagiuri (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • D – Kai Shanks (Flux)
  • E – Amanda Klaj (Daylight Saving Party)
  • F – Paul Fitzgerald (Independent)
  • G – Grahame Gould (Australian Christians)
  • H – Labor
    1. Stephen Dawson
    2. Kyle Mcginn
    3. Peter Foster
    4. Christopher Mousley
  • I – Abed Raouf (Independent)
  • J – Sonya Matheson (Julie Matheson for WA)
  • K – Robin Scott (One Nation)
  • L – Robin Chapple (Greens)
  • M – Angela Hyde (Independent)
  • N – Liberal
    1. Ken Baston
    2. Mark Lewis
    3. Barry Pound
    4. Jason Wells
  • O – Nationals
    1. Jacqui Boydell
    2. Dave Grills
    3. Gary Brown
    4. Judi Janes
    5. Adrian Hatwell
    6. Terry Fleeton
  • P – Jared Neaves (Liberal Democrats)
  • Q – Keith Mader (Independent)
  • R – Ian Rose (Family First)
  • Ungrouped
    • Julie Owen (Independent)
    • Darby Renton (Independent)

Preferences
Preferences have not yet been released.

Assessment
Labor used to be strong in the Mining and Pastoral region. At the first five elections after the introduction of proportional representation, Labor won a majority of seats four times (losing one seat to the Greens in 2001).

Labor has since lost two of its seats to the Nationals at the 2009 and 2013 elections, and the region is now dominated by the conservative parties.

On the left, there are now two seats held by Labor and the Greens. These parties are a long way away from winning a third seat. The ALP may well overtake the Greens and win back a second seat, but a third left seat could only be achieved if Labor can gain additional preferences from less progressive parties and overtake the Nationals or the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party and Nationals did well to collectively win four seats in 2013, and may well be vulnerable to losing one of those seats. Even if Labor is not in play for the seat, One Nation or the Shooters and Fishers

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the poll, with a vote strongest at the southern end of the region. The Liberal vote ranged from 27% in Kimberley to 37% in Kalgoorlie.

The Nationals vote peaked at 35% in North West Central, but was as low as 16% in Kimberley.

Labor’s vote was less than 20% in Kalgoorlie, and peaked at 29% in Pilbara.

There is a big range in the Greens vote. The party only polled 4.7% in Kalgoorlie, but reached 23% in Kimberley.

Results of the 2013 WA upper house election in the Mining and Pastoral region, by 2017 electorate

10 COMMENTS

  1. I think the Liberals will get the last seat.

    I can’t see the Druery coalition delivering enough votes to Flux to keep them in the game for long. In fact I suspect the Shooters will go deeper on the back of Christian preferences.

    There might be a path for the Shooters to take the final seat, but it seems to require them to outlast the Nats #2 and then the One Nation #2, and I can’t see that happening because if the Nats get smashed that badly it will likely be at the hands of One Nation.

  2. A seat each for Labor, Liberal, Nats, One Nation and the Greens. It will be interesting to see who gets the final seat, presumably between the Shooters and Flux. As well Flux are running candidates in each of the four seats in the region which could help them, whilst the Shooters are running two.

  3. Glenn Druery should be fired into the sun before every election.

    It shows what these micros really stand for, if they’re happy to work with each other, despite being so ideologically incompatible just to game the voting system and to line the books of GD either way.

    Sooner GTV is gone like it is federally the better.

  4. It’s so damn cynical that by now, it’s just expected (at least on blogs like this) that a clutch of these no-names might end up in parliament. One Nation, sure (as much as I don’t like them, if 10% of WA votes for them they deserve a seat), but even having to consider non-entities like Flux or *snarls nastily* Daylight bloody savings as serious contenders shows how much the system has been poisoned. If you need a degree in maths to explain how a party belongs in parliament, they don’t belong.

    Grrr.

  5. I hope Flux gets elected so that Online Direct Democracy can be shown to be an absolute disaster, especially with their “pooling” system.

  6. I hope Flux The System gets elected so we can move past the clash of ideology that the big parties have forced on us for too long.

    Flux is more about changing the process than being a traditional party. Party politics is killing this country. The sooner we work out how to replace party ideology with issues, the better off we all be.

    All that being said, it’ll be a close call for the final seat. I’ll go get some popcorn!

  7. Prove party politics sucks by creating a party run by party politics and using independent patsies to help. That’ll show ’em.

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