LIB 5.0%
Incumbent MP
David Morris, since 2006.
Geography
Southern fringe of Melbourne. Mornington covers northern parts of Mornington Peninsula Shire on the southern edge of Melbourne. It specifically covers the suburbs of Moorooduc, Mornington, Mount Eliza, Mount Martha and parts of Balnarring North.
Mornington first existed as a single-member electoral district from 1859 to 1967, and again since 1985. The original seat was held by unaligned members until the 1920s, and it was then held by the Country Party and the Liberal Party until its abolition in 1967.
The newly restored seat was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Robin Cooper. He served as a shadow minister from 1985 to 1991, before moving to the back bench.
Cooper became a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government after the 1996 election, and joined Kennett’s ministry in 1997. He again stepped down from the frontbench after the 1999 election defeat, and retired in 2006.
Mornington was won by Liberal candidate David Morris in 2006, and Morris has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP David Morris is not running for re-election.
- Kate Lardner (Independent)
- Leonie Schween (Animal Justice)
- Chris Crewther (Liberal)
- Ross Hayward (Family First)
- Paul Pettitt (Freedom Party)
- Jane Agirtan (Independent)
- Harry Sinclair (Greens)
- Georgia Fowler (Labor)
Assessment
Mornington should stay in Liberal hands.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
David Morris | Liberal | 20,963 | 50.6 | -8.2 |
Ryan White | Labor | 14,204 | 34.3 | +7.0 |
David Sinclair | Greens | 4,060 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Tyson Jack | Animal Justice | 2,208 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
Informal | 1,964 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
David Morris | Liberal | 22,775 | 55.0 | -7.6 |
Ryan White | Labor | 18,638 | 45.0 | +7.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the vote in the south (50.1%) and north (55.5%) while Labor polled 54% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote around 9-10% in all three areas.
Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
South | 9.9 | 50.1 | 6,658 | 16.1 |
North | 9.4 | 55.5 | 5,804 | 14.0 |
Central | 9.8 | 46.0 | 4,063 | 9.8 |
Pre-poll | 9.2 | 58.1 | 19,200 | 46.3 |
Other votes | 12.1 | 56.2 | 5,710 | 13.8 |
Election results in Mornington at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Daniel, I dont think it was Kate lardner who lost preselection here. Chris crewther beat incumbent mp David Morris for the nomination.
You may be thinking of Brighton as that is where an unsuccessful preselection challenger ran as an independent.
Yoh An is correct.
Daniel is confusing Mornington with Brighton, where Federico lost Lib preselection.
Mornington 2022 under OPV by using the same preference flows:
Lib: 17,910 + 1,366 = 19,276
Ind: 9,432 + 4,522 = 13,954
Lib pref: 3,416
Ind pref: 11,304
Pref flow: 76.79% Ind, 23.21% Lib
Pref total: 14,720
OPV pref flow: 9.28% Lib, 30.72% Ind, 60% exhausted
Unexhausted votes: 33,230
2CP: LIB 8.0% v IND
ian……. in calc opv result which will be rough anyway…. you must look at circs where preferences can be directed. lib to Nats and visa versa but there will be some leakage. Alp to green and visa a versa. Alp and green to teal.. there will be some tactical voting as well as they realise their candidate cannot win. Also Labor to ex sff indepenents (nsw). The exhaust rate in your calculation will be lower
Hi Mick, to get the most accurate result possible, I used the VEC preference distribution and translated that into the remaining 40%. I assumed a 60% exhaustion rate because that has been the case in NSW for a number of years now. Any leakage would be accounted for in the preference distribution. After the results in North Shore, Willoughby etc. are finalized in 2023, I can redo it accordingly and compare.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/mornington-district-results/mornington-results-distribution
There is nothing wrong with your calcs. But I think there will.be a lower exhaustion rate than your calcs assume. For nsw 2023 will be better than 2019 for Labor
Ok, I did a lower 55% exhaustion rate:
OPV pref flow: 10.44% Lib, 34.56% Ind, 55% exhausted
Unexhausted votes: 33,966
2CP: LIB 7.3% (7.25) v IND