Mount Waverley – Victoria 2010

ALP 0.3%

Incumbent MP
Maxine Morand, since 2002.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Mount Waverley covers central and northern parts of the City of Monash, specifically the suburb of Syndal and parts of the suburbs of Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley.

History
Mount Waverley was created prior to the 2002 election. Based on 1999 election results, Mount Waverley had a notional Liberal margin of 9.1%.

At the 2002 election, the seat was won by the ALP’s Maxine Morand with a 2.3% margin. In 2006 her margin was cut to 0.3%, and in 2007 she was appointed as Minister for Children and Early Childhood Development and Minister for Women’s Affairs.

Candidates

Political situation
Mount Waverley is the ALP’s most marginal seat in Victoria. The areas that now make up Mount Waverley were strongly Liberal-voting in the 1990s, and the seat will be very vulnerable at the next election.

2006 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael GidleyLIB14,71144.38-0.24
Maxine MorandALP13,85841.81-2.57
John PoppinsGRN2,6578.02-0.46
John BolandFF1,1473.46+3.46
Kali PaxinosPP5741.73+1.73
N. H. SmithIND1980.60+0.60

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Maxine MorandALP16,67550.31-1.98
Michael GidleyLIB16,47049.69+1.98

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mount Waverley have been divided into three areas: Mount Waverley in the west, Glen Waverley in the east, and the central area.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, although in the centre of the seat the ALP only outpolled the Liberal Party by ten votes. The Liberal Party won a majority amongst other votes.

 

Polling booths in Mount Waverley at the 2006 state election. Mount Waverley in blue, Central in yellow, Glen Waverley in green.

 

 

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Central8.4150.0510,93432.92
Mount Waverley8.1450.437,95623.96
Glen Waverley6.8252.526,67820.11
Other votes8.3748.857,64423.02
Two-party-preferred votes in Mount Waverley at the 2006 state election.

27 COMMENTS

  1. The 2001 redistribution greatly benefited Labor by removing the strongest Liberal parts of Glen Waverley in the east, and adding in more mixed territory from the abolished Bennetswood in the west and north.

    This is still the sort of seat that would change hands this side of Labor losing government, so it would be inexcusable if the Liberals didn’t win it this time.

  2. Maxine Morand could buck the trend in eastern seats and hold the ‘Waverleys’ seat for another term. The public transport issue shouldn’t play out here as much as this is one of the most reliable lines in Melbourne.

  3. This seat will also be targeted by pro-life groups given that Morand is the Minister for Early Childhood Destruction. I’d expect it to fall like Aspley did in Queensland last year.

  4. Interesting to see the swing away for all three major parties in 2006. Can a local or someone that knows maybe let us know what happened there?

  5. Doesn’t appear to be anything significant, it’s only a minor swing. It basically seems to be from the addition of Family First, who weren’t around in 2002.

  6. Dennis
    Posted October 23, 2010 at 8:14 PM
    This seat will also be targeted by pro-life groups given that Morand is the Minister for Early Childhood Destruction. I’d expect it to fall like Aspley did in Queensland last year

    Yes this one is lost before its run. There’s no doubt about that.
    A shocking record and one that wont be easily forgotton.

  7. Thanks Nick. I didn’t notice that Family First ran for the first time. What is the PP Party? Is it just another CEC? I can’t find anything about them online.

  8. CANAVAN-FF
    KHAN
    FERGEUS- GREEN
    GIDLEY- LIBS
    MORAND- ALP
    CHEVALLIER- SEX
    KELLY- DLP

    Changing demographics help ALP, presuming combined Green/Sex vote will be larger than combined FF/DLP vote as long as ALP vote doesn’t totally collapse Morand still a chance. Libs haven’t bombarded this area (yet) with information. although Ted has made a couple of visits here. From a poster in a shop window in the main drag of Glen Waverley Ali Khan is running as ‘an architect for intergration’ whatever that actually means.

  9. @Polly – I must admit that does dismay me, but the man who defeated Morand is pro-life. But I’d rather have a right-wing government than a left-wing one.

  10. Polly Morgan
    Posted November 29, 2010 at 7:48 AM
    @Matt – the new premier of the state is pro-choice, so what do you think of that? Mount Waverley was always going to fall if there was an anti-government swing.

    Thanks Polly.
    Your assesment is correct…. Ted (or Red Ted as he is known) is very progressive and fully supported the abortion bill of 2008. The Pro-Life groups did target this seat but if the message was one of Pro-Life then the DLP/FF vote would have been a lot larger. Its hard to imagine the Liberals going after their leader after bringing out them of the wilderness. The loss of Peter Kavanagh will no doubt take the wind out of the sales of any push for reform in this area.
    If the Pro-Life groups wanted to place pressure on the government in this area then their vote should have been placed in support of the Pro-Life minor party candidates. This has simply not occured. As the saying goes, if you want your message heard “dont waste your vote on a Major”

  11. @Tony

    Red Ted?!?!?! Do you insult kids in the street because they support a different football team.

  12. Imaginative Nickname
    Posted November 30, 2010 at 7:39 PM
    @Tony

    Red Ted?!?!?! Do you insult kids in the street because they support a different football team

    Red Ted is not a kid in the Street , he is now the Premier. I didnt give Ted the nickname but the fact that he is known by this name is a good indication on what sort of support Pro-Life campaigners would expect from this government.

    The message there was one in support of minor parties. I keep my insults and comments to other political parties and those that represent them.
    I find the concept of voting first for one of the major parties as revolting as the thought of placing a vote with a greens candidate.
    But I dont begrudge them the right to stand and or people to express their opinions through that party.

  13. I still think referring to a man as red ted because he has one opposing view on abortion is ridiculous. I could call all pro-lifers red’s because they won’t let people make their own decisions.

  14. Imaginative Nickname
    Posted December 1, 2010 at 8:58 PM
    I still think referring to a man as red ted because he has one opposing view on abortion is ridiculous. I could call all pro-lifers red’s because they won’t let people make their own decisions.

    As I said it wasnt me that gave him that nickname. He was nicknamed that by members of his own party.
    But any party that places the sex 2nd on any ballott cant call themselves conservative can they ?
    Any man or leader that voted for the removal of doctors choice to perform or not to refer this procedure cannot call himselve conservative.
    Any man that lead a party that help vote down amendments against this legislation (that is now considered the most barbaric in the world) shouldnt expect any Pro-Life groups to support him.
    Any man that supported and voted for the legalisation of Partial Birth Abortion, (that is the piercing of the babies skull at the moment of birth) and the dreadfully painfull death that occurs during this procedure….. cannot call himself a conservative. Any leader that supports not assisting babies that have survived this terrible experience and then being left to die cannot expect support or respect from anyone.
    I didnt call him that but whoever did certainly got it right.
    Lets face it…. If your a Pro Life group you would not be placing your first vote with the liberals when they have a leader with this morality or lack thereof.

  15. I would have thought the Dutch would be at the top of the pro-life most barbaric leader board?After all, doesn’t a Dutch ship sail the seven seas offering abortions to women in countries where abortion is illegal.

  16. Imaginative Nickname Says:
    Posted December 2, 2010 at 2:10 PM
    I would have thought the Dutch would be at the top of the pro-life most barbaric leader board?After all, doesn’t a Dutch ship sail the seven seas offering abortions to women in countries where abortion is illegal.

    No, partial birth abortion is illegal in Europe and in the US and in fact most civilised nations.
    It is legal in Victoria and Red Ted supported it.
    The abortion legislation in Victoria would not be supported in any civilised society.
    One would have to have no respect for life whatsoever to support that legislation.
    As you know animals have more protection than young babies in Victoria.

    .

  17. @Tony

    I think the medical term is “Intact dilation and extraction”. I have only be able to find one country where this is illegal, which is the U.S. I have found the following quote in many articles on the subject about the United Kingdom. “It is the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologist’s (RCOG) belief that this method of abortion is never used as a primary or pro-active technique and is only ever likely to be performed in unforeseen circumstances in order to reduce maternal mortality or severe morbidity.” This seems to throw doubt on your statement that this is illegal in Europe.

    “As you know animals have more protection than young babies in Victoria.”
    I don’t know this. If this is true, I would and many other would like to see the relevant legislation. Please post.

  18. Abortion debate aside, the Liberals would be pleased with their result here. For a marginal Labor seat in 2006, the Liberals won every booth in Mount Waverley this time.

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