Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2010

Incumbent MLCs

  • Bruce Atkinson (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for Koonung 1992-2006.
  • Richard Dalla-Riva (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for East Yarra 2002-2006.
  • Jan Kronberg (LIB), since 2006.
  • Shaun Leane (ALP), since 2006.
  • Brian Tee (ALP), since 2006.

Geography
Eastern Metropolitan region covers the electoral districts of Bayswater, Box Hill, Bulleen, Doncaster, Eltham, Ferntree Gully, Forest Hill, Kilsyth, Mitcham, Scoresby and Warrandyte. Eastern Metropolitan mainly covers areas to the east and south of the Yarra River, with the exception of Eltham district, which lies on the north shore of the Yarra.

Eight of the eleven seats are held by the Liberal Party, with the other three held by the ALP. Two of those Labor seats (Forest Hill and Mitcham) are very marginal, while Eltham is slightly safer at 6.5%. A number of the Liberal seats are very marginal. Ferntree Gully was the most marginal seat at the 2006 election, and Kilsyth, Bayswater and Box Hill are also marginal electorates.

Doncaster, Bulleen, Warrandyte and Scoresby are much safer, with margins between 8.1% and 11.2%.

2006 result

GroupVotes%Quota
Liberal168,58344.842.6905
Labor135,26435.982.1587
The Greens39,58710.530.6318
Family First16,6704.430.2660
Democratic Labor Party5,8371.550.0932
Democrats5,2251.390.0834
People Power4,7811.270.0763

The Liberal Party polled most strongly in Eastern Metropolitan in 2006. The Liberal Party polled two full quotas and over two thirds of another quota.

The ALP polled just over two quotas, while the Greens polled 63% of a quota. After preferences from the ALP and minor parties, the final vote was:

  • Kronberg (LIB) – 1.03 quotas
  • Pemberton (GRN) – 0.92

Overall the final margin was 7366  votes, which translates to 1.96% of the total vote in Eastern Metropolitan region.

Candidates
It is unclear which sitting Liberal MLCs are running for re-election, but the Liberal Party is also running Grace Tse and Miriam Rawson. The Greens are running Damian Magner.

Political situation
The first two Liberal seats and the first Labor seat can be judged as safe. It would require a large swing away from the ALP of at least 4% to really put the second Labor seat in danger.

The most likely change would be if the Liberals were to lose their third seat. A swing of 1% from the Liberal Party to either the Greens or to Labor (and thus passing to the Greens in preferences) would be sufficient to overturn the result and electing a Greens candidate.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Nick Carson
    Posted November 3, 2010 at 11:13 AM
    It would be fantastic for the eastern suburbs to have it’s very own Greens MLC!

    Fantastic for whom….. certainly not the electorate

  2. That depends on your political ideologies I suppose.
    Having grown up in the eastern suburbs I must say, a progressive state political voice that supports sustainability, peace & non-violence and social justice is definitely lacking in Eastern Metro.

  3. That depends on your political ideologies I suppose.
    Having grown up in the eastern suburbs I must say, a progressive state political voice that supports sustainability, peace & non-violence and social justice is definitely lacking in Eastern Metro.

    Can you think of one of their policies that doesnt involve a new tax or socialistic control.

    The work sustainabilty in itself is an awful word.
    Control population, control farming, control people’s movements etc etc.
    Besides being socially progressive has seen the world produce the likes of Adolf Hitler, Stalin,
    Idi Amin, Mao etc etc.

    I’d prefer a more centrist to conservative view myself.

  4. That’s a very oversimplified and misinformed view of Greens policies. Have a read: http://www.vic.greens.org.au/policies

    Sustainability is not control, it’s sustainability. I happen to be studying a Diploma of Sustainability sitting on a high distinction average.

    I believe it was Bob Brown who said; The Greens are neither left nor right, but straight ahead.

  5. “Besides being socially progressive has seen the world produce the likes of Adolf Hitler, Stalin,
    Idi Amin, Mao etc etc.”

    Tony, Syllogistic fallacy and quite plainly offensive. Your bow is drawn so long it broke.

Comments are closed.