Windermere – Tasmania LC 2015

Incumbent MLC
Ivan Dean, since 2009.

Geography
Northern Tasmania. Windermere covers the eastern shore of the Tamar River, stretching from the north-eastern suburbs of Launceston to George Town. The electorate covers the entire George Town council area, and a small part of the City of Launceston.

History
The electorate of Windermere was created by the 1999 redistribution, but mostly replaced the seat of Westmorland, which had existed since 1885.

The seat was held by a series of three independents from 1919 to 1985, but since 1985 no MP won re-election until 2009.

Darryl Chellis held the seat from 1985 to 1991, then George Brookes from 1991 to 1997.

In 1997, Silvia Smith won Westmorland as an independent Labor candidate. Smith had held the federal seat of Bass for the ALP from 1993 to 1996.

Smith was allocated to Windermere when the seats were redistributed in 1999.

In 2003, Smith was defeated by conservative independent Ivan Dean. Dean was also elected as Mayor of Launceston from 2005 to 2007.

In 2009, Dean was re-elected, seeing off a challenge from former Labor MP Kathryn Hay (running as an independent) and future Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson.

Candidates

Assessment
Windermere is the most interesting race in this year’s Legislative Council election.

Dean only narrowly held on for a second term in 2009, and is facing strong partisan opposition from Labor and the Greens in 2015.

Windermere tends to be a Labor-leaning area in other elections, but official party candidates tend to struggle in these elections, which should give Dean an advantage in a close race.

2009 result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Ivan DeanIndependent7,08439.17
Kathryn HayIndependent4,83926.76
Peter Whish-WilsonGreens2,94116.26
Peter KayeIndependent1,7699.78
Ted SandsIndependent1,4518.02

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Ivan DeanIndependent9,83955.00
Kathryn HayIndependent8,05145.00
Polling places in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Polling places in Windermere have been split into three parts: central, north and south. Polling places in the George Town council area have been grouped as ‘north’, while those booths in the City of Launceston have been grouped as ‘Central’ and ‘South’.

Sitting independent MP Ivan Dean’s vote ranged from 36.6% in the centre to 41.2% in the north.

His main rival, Kathryn Hay, had a vote ranging from 25.8% in the north to 28.7% in the south.

Greens candidate Peter Whish-Wilson’s vote ranged from 13.5% in the south to 19% in the north.

Voter groupDean %Hay %GRN %Total votes% of votes
Central36.5527.0816.827,12439.39
South39.9828.6813.494,99027.59
North41.1725.7919.033,34218.48
Other votes42.2023.4816.512,62814.53
Primary votes for independent candidate Ivan Dean in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Ivan Dean in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Kathryn Hay in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Kathryn Hay in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.
Greens primary votes in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.
Greens primary votes in Windermere at the 2009 Legislative Council election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Having just spent the past month working in the Windermere electorate, a few observations might be of interest:

    – Dean is running a very visible campaign with signage blanketing the Labor leaning town of George Town (though less prominent in Launceston). In Tasmania, political posters can only be erected on private property, so it is usually a good indicator of how organised a campaign is.

    – A few posters in the mid Tamar Valley (Whish-Wilson’s domicile) for the Green’s candidate but none at all for the other two candidates. Given the lengthy lead in time since Labor pre-selection, perhaps an indictment of a lack of effort.

    – My prediction is Dean with an increased majority. Neither the current Green or Labor candidates are as high profile as Kathryn Hay was last time (or indeed as Scott McLean is this time). In addition, with the pulp mill now just about dead and buried, most of the electorate specific heat around that issue has disappeared,

  2. ^^^ Thanks for those. I get the impression of a lack of energy online too, though McLean’s Facebook page suggests he is making some effort. ALP campaign in particular seems routine despite the very long lead time.

  3. If Dean wins he’ll be the oldest winner, at 70, of a LegCo seat for exactly 50 years (I was quite surprised to discover it had been that long.) That said David Llewellyn at 71 won his seat back in the Lower House last year. (It’s not that elderly incumbents tend to lose; rather, they nearly always retire.)

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