Braddon – Tasmania 2014

Incumbent MPs

  • Brenton Best (ALP), since 1996.
  • Adam Brooks (LIB), since 2010.
  • Bryan Green (ALP), since 1998.
  • Paul O’Halloran (GRN), since 2010.
  • Jeremy Rockliff (LIB), since 2002.

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils along with part of Latrobe council. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This has been maintained ever since. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

Candidates

  • National Party – Group A
    • Benji Benjamin
    • Ken Dorsey
    • Liz van der Linde-Keep
  • Australian Labor Party – Group B
    • Darryl Bessell
    • Brenton Best*
    • Shane Broad
    • Bryan Green*
    • Justine Keay
  • Liberal Party – Group C
    • Adam Brooks*
    • Kyron Howell
    • Roger Jaensch
    • Jeremy Rockliff*
    • Joan Rylah
  • Australian Christians – Group D
    • Kevin Swarts
  • Tasmanian Greens – Group E
    • Chris Cornell
    • Melissa Houghton
    • Philip Nicholas
    • Paul O’Halloran*
    • Sally O’Wheel
  • Palmer United Party – Group F
    • Scott Alexander
    • Julian Brown
    • Kev Deakin
    • Steve Green
    • Kevin Morgan
  • Ungrouped independents
    • Mick Anderson
    • Tony Brown

Assessment
The Liberal Party is in a strong position to win back a third seat, most likely off the Greens.

2006 result

CandidateVotes%Quota
Brenton Best7,08710.990.66
Shane Broad3,3035.120.31
Kay Eastley2,0273.140.19
Bryan Green11,22117.401.04
Judy Richmond2,3093.580.21
Australian Labor Party25,94740.242.41
Ted Field8941.390.08
Claire Gilmour7811.210.07
David Henderson7461.160.07
Melissa Houghton7351.140.07
Paul Basil O’Halloran5,7188.870.53
Tasmanian Greens8,87413.760.83
Adam Brooks6,97210.810.65
Grant Dunham1,2011.860.11
Leonie Hiscutt2,7154.210.25
Colin Lamont5940.920.06
Philip Lamont1,1151.730.10
Jeremy Rockliff10,99417.051.02
Brett Whiteley5,5478.600.52
Liberal Party29,13845.192.71
Valerie Blake2470.380.02
Timothy Kidd2700.420.03
Polling places in Braddon at the 2010 state election. Burnie in green, Central Coast in purple, Devonport in yellow, King Island in blue, North West in orange, South West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Braddon at the 2010 state election. Burnie in green, Central Coast in purple, Devonport in yellow, King Island in blue, North West in orange, South West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Braddon has been divided into six areas. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast local government areas were grouped along council boundaries. Polling places in Devonport have been grouped together, along with the only polling place in the Latrobe council area.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in four out of six areas, ranging from 55% in King Island to 36.1% in the South-West.

The ALP’s vote ranged from 48.7% in Burnie to 30.8% on King Island.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 11.9% in Devonport to 15.7% in Central Coast.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %GRN %Total votes% of votes
Devonport49.6337.8511.9415,54224.11
Central Coast46.7836.5415.6912,35219.16
North West43.6441.0914.3311,90918.47
Burnie38.7148.6511.9910,60016.44
South West36.0947.5915.142,7214.22
King Island55.0330.7513.298651.34
Other votes46.6237.5615.0210,48716.26
Liberal primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in northern parts of Braddon at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Davenport at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Burnie at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Ulverstone at the 2010 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Looks like ALP have taken note of my comments during Federal election about Northern Tasmanian seats being threatened by an alignment with the Greens. Any ALP member who opposes a pulp mill when unemployment is so high is not true Labour. Giddings has got the message.

    Tasmania needs governments that want economic growth rather than governments that want to be parasitic repliers on others to bail them out. Tasmanians do not need to be bailed out they need to be built up.

    Tasmania needs a government that will put humans ahead of whales and sharks.

  2. I don’t know that Gidding’s herself has ‘got’ the message, but she has certainly caved to the inevitability. Possibly a little late for it to be believable.

    Braddon is certainly one of the more interesting seats in this election in that the fifth seat (after 1 Lab and 3 Lib) is rather up in the air, with Labor, Liberals, PUP and Greens all likely to have substantial fractions of a quota at that point.

  3. I think that the Liberals will take a seat from the Greens. Then again, I tipped the Liberals to take a seat from Labor in 2010, when Labor had 3 seats and the Liberals had 2, but Labor ended up losing a seat to the Greens, which I found surprising.

Comments are closed.