Fisher – SA 2014

IND 17.4% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Bob Such, since 1989.

Geography
Southern Adelaide. Fisher covers northern parts of the City of Onkaparinga, including Aberfoyle Park, Happy Valley, Coromandel Valley, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Reynella East and parts of Chandlers Hill, Flagstaff Hill and O’Halloran Hill.

Map of Fisher's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Fisher’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Fisher’s boundaries shifted slightly, losing Flagstaff Hill to Davenport and gaining parts of Woodcroft from Mawson. The redistribution increased Such’s margin from 16.6% to 17.4%.

History
The electorate of Fisher has existed since 1970. The seat was Liberal-held at all but one election throughout the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, with the ALP winning the seat for one term in 1985. The sitting Liberal MP became an independent in 2000, and has held the seat ever since.

Stan Evans won Fisher in 1970, after first being elected as Member for Onkaparinga just two years earlier in 1968. Evans held the seat until 1985.

The redistribution prior to the 1985 election made Fisher much less safe, and shifted much of the seat into the neighbouring district of Davenport.

Evans decided to challenge Davenport Liberal MP Dean Brown for his preselection. Brown won Liberal preselection, but Evans ran for Davenport as an independent and was elected. Evans ended up sitting as a Liberal MP, and was re-elected in Davenport in 1989 before passing the seat on to his son Iain Evans at the 1993 election. Brown returned to Parliament in 1992 at a by-election, led the Liberal Party to victory at the 1993 election and served as Premier from 1993 to 1996.

The ALP’s Philip Tyler won Fisher, but lost four years later in 1989 to Liberal candidate Bob Such.

Such was promoted to the frontbench when Dean Brown became Liberal leader in 1992, and served as a minister from 1993 until Brown was deposed as Premier in 1996, when he was demoted to the backbench.

Such was discontented with the government, now led by John Olsen, and in 2000, facing a preselection challenge, he resigned from the Liberal Party.

Such was re-elected at the 2002 election, now as an independent, defeating Liberal candidate Susan Jeanes.

Such became Deputy Speaker after the 2002 election, and served as speaker from 2005 to 2006.

Such has been re-elected as an independent at the 2006 and 2010 elections.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Bob Such is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Sam Duluk. The Greens are running Malwina Wyra. Family First is running Dan Van den Brink.

Assessment
Fisher is held by Bob Such by a solid margin, but the Liberal Party will be hoping to knock that margin down.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bob SuchIND9,09440.8-1.8
Christopher MoriartyLIB5,97626.8+6.7
Adrian ChristopoulosALP4,98622.4-4.0
Penny WrightGRN1,2105.4+1.4
Trish NolanFF9964.5-0.7

2010 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Bob SuchIND14,83166.6
Christopher MoriartyLIB7,43133.4
Polling places in Fisher at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Fisher at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, East in blue, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

Independent MP Bob Such topped the poll in two out of three areas, with a vote ranging from 31.8% in the east to 49.6% in the centre. Despite Such’s vote being lowest in the east, he still topped the poll in that area.

The Liberal Party vote peaked at 41.3% in the west of the seat, with the vote dropping to 22.6% in the centre.

The ALP came second to Such in the east, with 29.5%, coming third in Central (19%) and the West (16.1%).

Voter groupIND %LIB %ALP %Total votes% of ordinary votes
East31.8228.1829.549,00651.41
Central49.5522.6219.007,40442.26
West32.8241.3016.141,1096.33
Other votes37.1628.3822.344,338
Two-candidate-preferred (Such vs Lib) votes in Fisher at the 2010 state election.
Two-candidate-preferred (Such vs Lib) votes in Fisher at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fisher at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fisher at the 2010 state election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. The Liberals have no chance here – Such has been thrice re-elected as an Independent, and will continue to be returned until he retires.

    From what I’ve heard, Such is a very independent and hard working MP, and seeks the opinion of his constituents about what to do in the event of a hung parliament.

  2. The problem with this seat is that the Such second preference flows have never been tested. He has never finished third so there is no way of knowing what will happen to his preferences. If he finishes second and labor third history suggests that the labor preferences will flow to him. The same will happen if the liberals finish third. Sam duluk has run an expansive grass roots campaign that has taken the fight as it were up to Such. There us every reason to think that , if The Such primary votes erodes enough for him to drop to third place , his preferences will likely flow to Sam Duluk ( this is mainly because Such is still seen as a liberal or at least not labor). The gaining of woodcroft and cherry gardens may have altered the margin but it has introduced a large unknown factor in at least three major booths. It remains far from the whitewash being predicted by some.

  3. I’m pretty sure he does live in happy valley. At least that’s where he gets on the bus and it’s where everyone I’ve spoken to says he lives. I think you will find however that due to the redistribution bob such actually lives in that part of flagstaff hill that was moved to davenport. In other words – it really doesn’t matter much where you live as long as you can adequately represent the people in your electorate.

    You should get over it Mrs S

  4. I consider Such one of those Independents whom voters turn to if one of the major parties usually dominates to a degree where the other party’s vote is inflated by reluctant voters – many rural seats all over the country, for example, throw up Independents of that sort, but they’re arguably rare in cities, be they in inner suburbs or urban fringes, so Such is a rare breed.

  5. Mrs S – to correct the record Sam DOES live in Happy Valley and has been the Aberfoyle Park/Happy Valley Neighbourhood Watch area co-ordinator for some time.

    Sam is a local and Sam lives locally – I wish the same could be said about “extensive travelling” Bob Such…

  6. Duluk is running a very strong campaign. Completely covering the electorate.

    I see Duluk at the shops all the time, he lives down the road from me at Happy Valley – he’s quite involved in the local neighborhood watch. I like Such, but Duluk is a very good bloke

    Certainly worth a small bet on this one.

  7. … and for how long has Duluk lived in the Happy Valley area. I’ve heard reports that he’s been renting in HV for about 6 months but owns a house elsewhere…

Comments are closed.