Hinchinbrook – Queensland 2024

Dametto, like his friends in Tragear and Hill, should be fairly rusted onto this seat by now.

On a different topic, I wonder if this seat (and Cook and Whitsunday, to name but two others) will be a candidate for a rename in years to come, given it shares its name with a local council.

given there is a ferry link to Palm Island from Lucinda i dont see why it cant be put into Hinchinbrook

This seat surprised me by being lost in 2017 but even more so in 2020 with the terribly low primary for the LNP (just 25%). They actually had a really good, hardworking candidate in 2020 who seemed to be resonating. Shows how entrenched the KAP is in North Queensland, once they win these seats off the LNP.

I suspect Dametto will win on primary votes this year.

KAP will easily retain, likely with an increased margin.

There’s a possibility that One Nation will rerun and both ON and LNP will recover their lost primary votes from their low base of 2020. There’s currently momentum behind the LNP statewide. This would deny Dametto a primary vote majority.

Can the LNP win this back?

No

@John why not?

The same reason Labor won’t win any green seats

@Nether Portal Nick Dametto is an extremely popular local MP (look at the swing to him last election) and the LNP have no candidate less than 100 days out from the election.

Minor parties or independents are hard to unseat by major parties unless the6y screw up.

The conventional wisdom seems to that the alp govt will lose possibly in a landslide almost as bad as 2012. But alp has a chance in Maryborough.. an ind in Mirani a independent in Rockhampton . . Ind in Noosa? May be there may be a Hung parliament.. all the Katters will be reelected 2 greens will possibly be reelected … if people are voting against Labor they may not vote for the Lnp…. but other party candidates esp with a very fractured vote

@ mick virtually no chance of a hung parliament Labor will get thumped. To get minority the libs would need to win fewer then 12 seats they’ll get at least twice that according to the polls it won’t be as bad as 2012

@Mick I highly doubt Labor will win Maryborough. The only reason they hold it with a 13% margin is because Bruce Saunders is a popular MP. But even popular MPs in most seats won’t be able to withstand the swing.

Brace yourselves, a blue wave is coming! Queensland and the NT’s Labor governments are likely to lose office this year, and in Queensland it will be a thumping as John said, while the NT won’t be as catastrophic but Eva Lawler is in serious danger of losing her seat.

If one of the 3 Katter seats (I don’t count turncoat Mirani) was to fall [Traegar, Hill or Hinchinbrook], It would be this one, I am saying if the Katters was to lose one of their 3 seats in this region, it would be this one.

They won’t lose any of their 3 seats. Katter and his father are well liked in these areas and won’t be losing their seats until they do something to alienate voters

KAP hold but swing to LNP simply because of the collapse in the Labor vote.

Hinchinbrook MP Nick Dametto will quit his state seat in parliament and will run for Townsville mayor. Wow. Does anyone think former LNP MP Andrew Cripps will put his hand up for the LNP in the bye-election? Last time I checked, he was a councillor. I’m surprised Dametto is going ahead with this. I’m wondering if he’s frustrated with the limitations of being a state MP crossbencher with no power. Former Police officer Annette Swaine was LNP’s candidate at the last state election.

still it will be a KAP retain cant see the LNP overcoming a 13% gap. althought i doubt labor will contest the by election as they wont bother wasting the resources. so if he fails to win the townsville mayoral race would there be enough time to recontest Hinchinbrook?

with Labor out of the race it may help the lnp somewhat without labor directing preferences

Labor ran in Callide in 2022.

still it will be a KAP retain cant see the LNP overcoming a 13% gap. althought i doubt labor will contest the by election as they wont bother wasting the resources. so if he fails to win the townsville mayoral race would there be enough time to recontest Hinchinbrook?

@John

The answer to this from Nick Dametto, comments in the media, is out of the question, re-contesting the Hinchenbrook bye-election if he loses the mayoral contest. I’m leaning towards Labor not contesting Hinchenbrook bye-election after they took a whack in the regions’ last state election. And would prefer to avoid a bad result in an unwinnable seat.

“Mr Dametto admitted there was “no fall back” for him if he was not elected mayor, but remained adamant he was making the right decision.”

https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/townsville-mayor-race-heats-up-as-suspended-thompson-plans-comeback/news-story/5bd73a7239aab5287b9fe1c1dae096cb

As a Townsvillite, without Dametto, I think the seat is genuinely up for grabs.

He has a massive personal vote and most of the seats electors live in the Northern Suburbs of Townsville, which at the federal level is solidly LNP, not KAP.

@John @Political Nightwatchman
normally it’s the Incumbent government that doesn’t contest vacant seats not held by them in fear of a huge swing against them

That’s not true they only don’t c9nest seats they have no hope of winning. I’d say the LNP will call the by election as soon as possible so Dametto can’t recontests as to not make the cut off date they will likely call the by election as soon as he vacated the seat. He won’t have time to recontest. So with dametto out of the picture Knuth will probably be in line to become deputy. And if robbie moves up to federal politics he could be the leader of the state party in qld parliament within a few years. I’d say a swing to the LNP of 7% At least

Once again, a third term Labor state government contested a by-election in *Callide*.

This kind of contradicts that incumbent governments “don’t c9nest seats they have no chance of winning”.

The LNP will fancy their chances here, being Crusafulli’s home turf.

Still I don’t imagine why. Maybe it was to keep ONP out of the contest. Callide swung even harder at the general electi okn to the LNP. This is probably one of the least friendly labor seats in the entire state. So much so it frequently throws up an right of centre party against the LNP. Onp were only a couple hundred votes off making the 2cp. Under my own submission Callide would become less hostile to labor but still umwinnable

It was a waste of money and resources for Labor to try tbh. Also the two women who ran in 2022 and 2024 for labor have the same last name I’m assuming they’re related?

It depends on the circumstances running canidates in unwinnable seats in bye-elections. Remember Labor didn’t run a candidate in the safe LNP seat of Toowoomba South in the bye-election in 2016. The reason behind that was they thought the LNP would have a harder task defending the seat against independent former mayor Di Thorly. And the non-LNP vote would galvanise behind Di Thorly. It worked and while the LNP still won the seat they had spend more resources to hold it.

These type of considerations will come into play when Labor deciding whether to run a candidate in Hinchinbrook.

I’m sure the outcome had more to do with the fact it was a by election. The way fpv works is you number candidates in order. So people who would put 1 labor 2 ind would just put 1 ind without a labor candidate. That strategy did work in pittwater because nsw has opv. Labor choos oong not run may actually hurt the ind because they aren’t directing preferences. As we saw at the prahran by election the libs won because the left didn’t have a labor candidate to direct preferences towards the Greens and Tony Lupton was capturing some of that vote and preferencong the libs

Even if they wanted to contest, Labor often doesn’t find it easy to find candidates in a regional seat like this. Some will remember the occasion a few elections ago (2009?) when, unable to find a local candidate, they ran a Brisbane uni student who somewhat unwisely told the local ABC that they had no particular connection with Hinchinbrook but had driven through it once on the way to Cairns.

(I recall hearing of a rural federal seat before this year’s election that there were only about 20 ALP members under 60 in the electorate, and almost all of them worked in the public sector and were thus ineligible to stand).

Il imagine the lnp will give it a cr as ck though the lnp is currently riding the honeymoon but I think 13% might just be outmof the question if it were a Labor seat then yea they’d probably win but they’re up against a minor party who are doing pretty good in this neck of the woods. It’s the equivalent of Labor going up against the greens in a by election. Traegar might be in play once Robbie shifts over to his father’s federal seat if that’s what’s going to happen too.

Even if they wanted to contest, Labor often doesn’t find it easy to find candidates in a regional seat like this. Some will remember the occasion a few elections ago (2009?) when, unable to find a local candidate, they ran a Brisbane uni student who somewhat unwisely told the local ABC that they had no particular connection with Hinchinbrook but had driven through it once on the way to Cairns.

@BT

The last state election was less than a year ago. Labor probably will rerun the same candidate if she agrees to stand. They did the same thing in Aston, Kiama, Currumbin, and Fadden bye-elections. Also, this is not just a Labor problem; the LNP have had young students run in unwinnable seats or parachutes. They had parachutes in the Aston and Currumbin bye-elections, and these are not even safe Labor seats. The minor parties’ records are even worse in terms of finding people to get a name on the ballot.

If Labor wants to run a candidate, they will find a way to run. It’s even possible they get a former Townsville MP to do the party a favour by running, but I doubt it will come to that. I think you’re exaggerating how much of a hurdle this is for Labor.

all of those seats were marginal seats aside from Fadden although labor polled 2nd in that seat. Hinchinbrook is alot different they polled a distant 3rd. id say Labor will want to give the KAP breathing room and not want to distract the electorate from the KAP attempt to retain the seat

i just checked and ONP missed the 2cp in the callide by election by 48 votes

Taylah Fellows has written in the Courier Mail that she is tipping both LNP and Labor to run candidates in the Hinchinbrook bye-election. She also suggested that Nick Dametto would the frontrunner in the mayor race, and KAP would be the frontrunner in the Hinchinbrook bye-election. KAP does have 48% primary vote buffer, but that surely gets sliced because of a new candidate, and some are not happy that the bye-election is occurring. The pressure is on the LNP because this is their former seat and they are in government. This will be viewed as a test of David Crisafulli’s leadership, but not fatal if they don’t win. But KAP is also taking a gamble, and Fellow described it as a ‘high risk, high-reward’ move. Fellows has suggested they must be confident in their chances of pursuing this.

the thing is the LNPs best part of the seat is the cassowary coast part and thats the part thats most at risk of being removed.

also itsa 46% primary i cant see KAP lsoing the seat tbh. but id say the LNp could make it marginal

I’ll start with personally, I am shocked as I agree this is a high-risk for the KAP and surprised Dametto is attempting the switch. I guess KAP see this as a way to get a foothold in Townsville as they haven’t broken through here in the state seats (Thuringowa was the closest in their breakout year in 2012). A KAP member did run for one of the two major groupings last year at the local election but failed to get in.

Now for the data. Looking at the Townsville seats, KAP scored big in the 2012 breakout year but in each seat, their vote in 2024 is approx 1/2 that in 2012, Thuringowa still the best of the 3 for them. Hinhinbrook, pre-2017 and 2017 seat has always been KAP’s third strongest seat after Mt Isa/Traeger & Dalrymple/Hill. In 2012, KAP got 35.24% primary here (with KAP’s member for Hill, Shane Knuth’s brother running, Jeff, who was ex-ONP MP for Burdekin). Thuringowa was 4th best at 30.13% Primary in 2012.

Labor hasn’t gone above 30% once since 1995 and that was in 2006. Labor last held the seat in the 1950s (from its creation) and 2024 was the lowest it has scored here in the seat’s entire history. The right-wing parties of ONP (98/01) KAP (12) KAP (20/24) have pushed ALP into 3rd, even 4th in 2017 (KAP+ONP team effect) and close encounters to being pushed to 3rd with IND (04) KAP+PUP (15)… so really, I’m surprised Labor would bother.

ONP vote really has been cannabilised here by Dametto (KAP). Compare 2017 to 2020, ONP drops 14% while KAP gains 21% on primaries, which I believe was the largest swing TO an incumbent in the 2017.

So this leads to this seat being what has been for the last few elections, KAP vs LNP. A real chance KAP loose this, so they better choose a strong candidate and ensure Dametto campaigns with whoever it is ASAP. LNP gained swings of 8% in the other two KAP seats, while LNP gained swings of 7-11% in the Townsville seats. 8% swing gets LNP to 36% and if we say that comes off KAP, that puts them on 38%.

Initial verdict: KAP Retain, but it’s close!

That and the LnP is enjoying a honeymoon period ATM. This area was hit by the floods and the LnP response was well received. But I can’t see the KAP losing this one especially with preferences being directed to them

It doesn’t sound like Bob Katter is on board with Nick Dametto move. Dametto running for mayor doesn’t really do anything for the Katter Australia Party brand. Dametto posted on Facebook that he’s running as an independent, anyway, and not as a KAP mayor candidate. All that Dametto’s move does is put the seat at risk for KAP with an unnecessary bye-election.

“The outspoken MP who remained quiet on Friday while his party stated Mr Dametto’s mayoral ambitions were “expanding” KAP’s influence, put doubt into that statement.

“Look as far as I’m concerned blokes make decisions and from where I sit, they just vanish into irrelevance and obscurity,” Mr Katter said.

“I think even the worst of our opponents will say we’re still a chance of winning this seat that this bloke may or may not vacate.”

But when asked about his relationship with Mr Dametto, Mr Katter said: “No comment.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/cairns/nick-dametto-and-bob-katter-rule-out-kap-expansion-into-local-government/news-story/cec4f32dfd018049e17aa597a98e5898

Dametto has his reason and can run for any job he chooses. As can we all. Just like I can choose to work at Woolworths regardless of if the manager doesn’t like me due to my disability

Agree Darth, Nick Dametto’s situation is probably akin to Jim Madden (former Labor MP for Ipswich West) who resigned to run for Ipswich council, triggering a by election that was won by the LNP’s Darren Zanow (who chose not to recontest his seat in the general election due to illness)

It’s been reported Nick Dametto has quit his membership with the Katter Australia Party for his tilt as mayor. Former Townsville deputy mayor Mark Molachino is reported considering a running for KAP. Former Hinchinbrook MP’s Andrew Cripps is understood to be interested running for the LNP.

Yohu I’m tipping the lnp to regain Ipswich west at the next election

While I do t think the lnp will get all it’s wishes from the redistribution I think the margin will be close to 0 and be one of the most marginal seats