Ashgrove – Queensland 2015

1. I think the campaign labor ran causing a mystery of who the premier would be if Newman loses Ashgrove made residents more willing to vote for the LNP for stability and with a genuine view that the LNP should be in government. The polls have now shown a 10 point lead for labor and more interesting a view that the LNP doesn’t deserve to be re-elected making it not only harder for Newman to get elected but as news focuses more and more on a would be premier if Newman loses, its likely to make no difference to the voters

2. The swing in Ashgrove was right in line with swings elsewhere, so I don’t think there were any special factors at play in the 2012 result.

   This is the LNP’s 16th most marginal seat against Labor. The ALP could capture Ashgrove and still end up with less than a third of the seats in the next parliament.

3. Kate Jones would have hung on if it weren’t for Newman, the special factor. Elsewhere swings varied but in Ashgrove Newman created a blue map of booths where atleast labor members elsewhere were able to win a few and still lose. No one could say at all this was just a regular crucial seat no more significant then any other, this is Newmans and that will impact on the result this time

4. Jones would have had to contain the swing to 7% to survive. In very few seats did Labor keep it under double digits.

5. Like I said a MINIMUM: jones is the only one that can take on Newman, Dick is a leader on the wings and Hinchcliffe was a rising star. If you remember Andrew Fraser was the secon in command he was treasurer and deputy meaning he played a big role in the qld government which was rejected by the state. It would be an unwelcome distraction to remind voters of the past government when he was playing a massive role.

   Look at Mulgrave, bucked the trend massively. Ashgrove is a seat labor would have been a reasonable chance without Newman running as she was extremely popular and polls reflect this now

6. I heard that on Saturday door knocking commenced in Ashgrove by pro-education groups pointing out that prior to the 2012 election Newman supported a return to External Exams and post election when he had the power to implement he reverted to the opposite position. It is like LNP support for Ethanol pre 2012 & opposition post election or opposition to Civil Unions legislation pre election to the opposite post election.

   Andrew Jackson
   apjackson@hotkey.net.au

7. Mr. Jackson,

   So in other words, Campbell Newman is Australia’s Mitt Romney.

   At this stage, I’ll be stunned if Newman hangs on here, I give him credit for recontesting Ashgrove, and not trying to flee for say, Moggill.

8. Newman will win, I’m more sure of that than just about anything. I rate Jones and would love to see her back in Parliament but there is no way the LNP will allow Ashgrove to fall. The promises and announcements that Ashgrove will receive during the campaign will make it near impossible for any swing voter to consider anything but LNP. There’s no way the LNP will allow a hollow victory whereby they win the election and lose Ashgrove. I unfortunately have absolutely no doubt that the LNP will hold this. Margin is irrelevant, you can’t use margin when analyzing the seat the Premier holds. He gets extra points for being Premier. Ashgrove will go with government. Labor will win it back when they next get into government, which won’t be 2015.

9. The LNP would let this fall if cutting resources in other seats could cost them government. The LNP have spent the last three years pouring money into this seat and polling has this 55/45 to labor still with a strong view that Newman is a poor performing premier and that the LNP don’t deserve to be re-elected. If actual money can’t persuade them, promises won’t. Losing Ashgrove is a lot better then losing government after nearly 20 years of opposition and the risk of losing the new generation. Margin is very much relevant here as it suggests that Newman was’t anything special in terms of state-wide viewing of the need for an LNP government. The margin was very much relevant in Bennelong in 07, even Griffith in 2013. This seat is no means a certainty for the LNP and I’d say that labor would have to be favourites for winning this

10. Really surprised all those marginal seat holders let Newman sandbag this seat. Actually think that if Newman had shared it in other electorates they could hold more seats because they won’t be holding this one

11. Having a campaign in the school holidays and during Australia Day will annoy Queenslanders and make it even more difficult to win more people in Ashgrove onside

12. I drove through Ashgrove Electorate North to South this morning and return tonight and saw not a single sign that election is taking place. Surely Newman knew he was calling an election surely he could have had a few flag wavers even if Kate Jones was left in Dark. Newman is not only losing Ashgrove he is not organised enough to try.

13. Jones said she was running a much toned down campaign. Probably a good idea not to highlight the losing seat Premier problem which probably drove voters to vote on stability by choosing Newman

14. The current odds for Ashgrove are ALP $1.28 and the LNP $3.50.

    But before the ALP can get itself confident about Ashgrove, it needs to win seats in Brisbane (and I am only talking Brisbane), they have to win seats such as Bulimba, Waterford, Lynton (where they have experienced candidate issues and I have no doubt this has played into the hands of Campbell Newman in making his decision to call an Election), Nudgee and Sandgate BEFORE they can start think about Ashgrove.

    That is in my first line of Seats (Ashgrove is ranked 19 in the list of 36) alone and they the seats that I have mentioned are seats that you would NEVER think would be won by the LNP and surely guys such as Neil Symes (Lynton) and Kerry Millard (Sandgate) surely no matter how much work they have done cant get elected for a 2nd term, but if they do, it will because the ALP has not got its strategy right.

15. Good call Angus, I don’t think Ashgrove is the foregone conclusion some are suggesting. Lytton, Bulimba, Sandgate, Nudgee, Logan, Waterford and Ipswich have to the top 7 near certainties for Labor. Also add Yeroongpilly and Gladstone as seats Labor JUST HAVE TO win. If they don;t comfortably win back all of those, there’s no way they will win Ashgrove and the campaign will have been a massive failure.

16. Would almost put Greenslopes in the above category too.

17. It is hard to know whether Newman’s visibility and name recognition is worth an extra margin or not.Tthere are arguments both ways made more difficult by the fact that the ALp candidate has name recognition. If there is a state wide swing of 9-10% on it is hard to see the Premier holding a seat on a 5.7% margin. That would be quite remarkable.

18. I don’t agree with that call. In Brisbane labor would probably rank Ashgrove in the top three because seats like Sandgate and Waterford are going to fall easily, they won’t get any attention from the LNP because there is a need to secure a majority. The only seats before Ashgrove you could say labor needs to work at is Brisbane Central and Mount Cootha and even then it’s easy to see where labor can beat the LNP on primary vote. Ashgrove in terms of the Brisbane campaign is probably the first real target for labor. Making Newman spend more time in the electorate will put voters in the real crucial seats like Kallanghur and Springwood with the attitude that a vote for Newman is another three years of pork barrelling Ashgrove. As long as labor doesn’t make there state campaign about who the premier would be if Newman loses, there’s no reason why Ashgrove shouldn’t be labors number one Brisbane priority

19. The LNP will win the Election in Queensland by a vastly reduced margin But they wont win Ashgrove So Kate Jones get ready for Parliament. Cam has upset almost every sector of Society he has ensured his own downfall I expect a swing of 10 percent against him in this seat
    and 15% across the State. Perhaps a rise in Independents KAP and One Nation which would be a good thing. Anyone but the major parties is a good thing

20. Palaszczuk is campaigning on Youth Unemployment perhaps all us younger people should inherit high paying jobs from our parents just like she did. Speaking of Unemployment she should start looking as Cameron Dick will take over as leader after the election.

21. Palaszczuk is campaigning on Youth Unemployment perhaps all us younger people should inherit high paying jobs from our parents just like she did.

22. John, please don’t spam the various pages with the same meaningless drivel. If you don’t have something new and meaningful to contribute to the discussion, just don’t post at all.

    Anyway, this is definitely going to be interesting to watch. If Newman doesn’t make much effort in this seat, then the LNP clearly already wrote him off and have a plan in place as to who is going to lead if they win… in which case, they’re hiding that information, and that’s rather wrong of them. On the other hand, if he does make a serious push in this seat, then either the LNP feel very safe (thus feeling that spending the money on this seat is worth it in general) or they’re seriously in trouble (if the LNP are headed for a loss, one of the only ways to cushion the blow is to save face in the leader’s own seat).

23. John, you’ve posted the same unfunny joke five times. Do it again and I’ll ban you.

24. aielyn: Another alternative is that they have a contingency plan to parachute Newman into another seat, should he lose.

25. kme – you’re right, but at the same time, that’s basically in the exact same category as them lying about who will be leader.

26. I see on Sportsbet that Mr. Newman is now $2.05 to win Ashgrove, game on!!!

27. Re the two independents. Connie Cicchini’s Facebook page says she’s a member of Katter’s Australian Party, though obviously she’s not an endorsed candidate for them
    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Connie-Cicchini/524095364309277

    Peter Jeremijenko appears to be a former Greens candidate running on an anti-VLAD platform

28. Reachtel no good for Newman…53/47 to labor

29. Gotta love the LNP spinning the reachtel results and saying they are confident about winning Ashgrove. Even though LNP strengthened in the end in 2012, that was just Ashgrove it was the whole state. The LNP started strong in this campaign and unless they start racking up 55 on 2PP I can’t see how they can be comfortable about their hopes here

30. Observer, I am a Labor man through and through and nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Newman lose here but he won’t. I am almost certain he will win. The reality is there is a second poll that has Newman in front in Ashgrove….the one which asks people who they think will win Ashgrove and government. If you’re a swing voter who wants stuff done in Ashgrove and you believe LNP are going to win the overall election, they’d be crazy to want a Labor MP. If Kate won this seat with an LNP gov, Ashgrove would get absolutely nothing for 3 years. Some people won’t like voting Newman in, but they will.

31. A few points on that part of the question is that it can get mixed results with people thinking that they mean overall across the state, second it suggests people in Ashgrove are going to lodge a protest vote which isn’t good for Newman. Kate Jones primary has consistently been around 46-47 and it looks like its locking in. People in Ashgrove love Kate and unfortunately for Newman he lost the trust early. He may have delivered but prior polling has suggested Ashgrove views him very poorly. With todays galaxy suggesting a 12% swing in Brisbane and the likely prospect that labor could actually win Newman will be under pressure to deliver government for LNP not himself. I don’t think there is much going for Newman here unlike last time when they wanted him as Premier now that they don’t this labor leaning electorate is fair game for labor to pick up

32. The Australians polling partner Newspoll has labor 51/49 here. Against what reachtel has indicated in giving Newman a +5 approval however he trails as prefered MP. The most positive thing for labor is the primary vote has remained at 47 suggesting that this could be locked in. Newman at 47 too but given polling for the last few months its going to be harder for the LNP to keep this. I’d say minor parties will fair better but at Newman’s expense meaning under optional referencing Newman would be a goner

33. One thing I did note on the newspoll result was that it only polled for labor, LNP and the greens and not the two independents running which their support is roughly at 1.5 each so this automatically boosted Newmans support so I’d say it’s 53/47 still because of optional preferencing

34. Always interested inn your posts Observer. I think Ashgrove will either be a Newman win on the night, or if Kate DOES win, it will be a seat they count for days. I can’t see Kate taking Ashgrove on the actual night.

35. This is a unique scenario where the LNP are likely to hold government but lose their leader. Ashgrove is a labor leaning electorate. Kate Jones has played it smart this time in a low profile and grassroots campaign. Newman won’t be able to spend anywhere near the time in the electorate that he could in 2012. North Queensland is in big danger, labor campaigning in Barron River today suggests the problem could jeopardise the LNP chances of a majority. The biggest problem is in Brisbane where double digit swings are expected. I’ll admit Newman will probably get below average swing against him in Ashgrove but can you honestly see a scenario where neighbouring seats like Mt Coot-tha, Brisbane Central and Stafford will swing to labor (using 2012 results, not by-election results) on a huge scale as suggested by the media. For a scenario for Newman to be able to call Ashgrove on election night the swing here would have to be 3.5% which won’t happen. Ashgrove has consistently shown labor support at 47% which is too high to lose on and id say support is solid rather then leaning. Newman is the strongest LNP candidate for Ashgrove but he won’t call it on election night and probably won’t claim victory at all

36. The greens and both independents and recommending numbering every box on HTV and all three place Campbell Newman last

37. Reachtell poll out – LNP 52 to Labor 48 for whole state. That’s it – all momentum with LNP now. Jones is gone. Newman will retain comfortably now. If LNP wins like that in overall election, there’s no way he will lose his seat. I’d say seats like Cairns are going to be hard for Labor now.

38. Even when the LNP recoded 53 statewide in reachtel polls, Ashgrove was still a loss for Newman. This seat isn’t applicable to state wide standards the camapaign here is going to be incredibly local and go against the 11% swing predicted. However that doesn’t mean that it won’t swing. Newman will be unhappy that the Ashgrove coverage isn’t as high as last time which helped him. Im still predicting this as likely labor gain

39. 52 / 48 still an 11% 2PP swing to ALP after the disaster of 2012. Not saying he can’t do it, but still a big ask for Campbell Newman with a 5.7% margin.

40. Morgan Poll has LNP just infront at 50.5/49.5 with slightly lower primary votes for the two major parties, both around the same LNP at 39 and Labor at 37 with Greens at 10%. It suggests that the LNP campaign of just vote 1 is necessary because clearly minor party voters want to preference which is bad for the LNP. This suggests momentum isn’t necessarily with the LNP and that Ashgrove isn’t as in the bag as Rudd for PM suggests

41. Newman won’t be attending tomorrow’s Ashgrove candidate forum. It seems that being in a marginal seat has disadvantages has he still has a commitment to visit other electorates. Not great on his behalf

42. No way? If he doesn’t show that will be a big dagger for him. I’m still not convinced he will lose. This seat is a mini election. Any uniform swings won’t necersarily effect this seat. People have anusual decision to make that goes against just whether you want Labor or LNP.

43. *Make that unusual

44. If Newman loses this seat and the NLP win Government Tim Nichols will be Premier, be afraid, be very afraid. Tim won’t sack some Public Servants, he will sack them all. (not that their is anything wrong with that).

45. The thing your forgetting is that last time Newman won the seat in 2012 Jones was consistently polling in the 30s (45 when it showed her leading 50.7 2PP) but Newman always polled 49+ on the primary except when Jones lead once. He also polled as the preferred local MP on just about every occasion. Newman had Bligh and the nastiness of the 2012 campaign to thank for winning. Even so he only managed 55% 2PP, he performed lower then the federal libs polled in the electorate. Newman is also performing much worse then he was in 2012. He’s not liked. This is a soft labor electorate and Kate Jones is leading as preferred MP. Newman can’t play local anymore like he could in the 2012 campaign.

    I disagree i think last time was a mini-election as it dragged on for a year and was so personal and bizarre. I agree this won’t swing uniform or above but i can’t see how he can get lower then a 5% swing. He won’t be able to call this on the night. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s defacing his own posters, he’s been trying to resurrect the nastiness that helped him win last time.

46. Why did they assign Newman to Ashgrove in the first place anyway?

47. They could have put Newman in Mermaid Beach – any muppet can win there with LNP endorsement. He wouldn’t have even had to campaign.

48. nhweston1997 They assigned Newman Ashgrove because he left his run too late to contest a safe seat and none of those who held safe seats would roll over for him.

    Since 1960 Ashgrove has been in Liberal hands for 36 Yrs. and 20 Yrs for ALP.

    Newman has such a glorified opinion of himself that he felt Ashgrove would b a walkover last time.

    IN any case the reason Ashgrove is so marginal is because of Newman himself. Thousands of unemployed public servants and thousands more threatened public servants are the cause of Ashgrove’s marginality. It is basically a middle class seat with Dr’s Wives and students being the cause of ALP / Greens votes rather than a true Labor seat . The electorate is virtually devoid of non retail / service employment.

    Newman’s arrogance must even be grating in the Army Married Quarters to the north of the electorate.

    HIs failure to turn up to the Candidates forum today is indicative that he still think of his electorate are lucky he deigned to represent them.

    NO doubt those who turned up to listen to the candidates will do the right thing and put Newman last

    It would be wiser to elect Independent Candidate Connie- CIchiini’s clapped out car than to re-elect Newman. When every candidate in an election ranks him last there has to be a reason.

    Andrew Jackson

49. Newman was actually offered a safe sunshine coast seat, he refused it in 2011

50. I don’t know how many times I have to say this but here goes again “NEWMAN WILL WIN.” When it comes to the swing voter, I have little faith in their ability make anything but a decision based on whatever is best for them. They will want all the goodies Newman is going to provide. Ashgrove is the typical marginal seat aka plenty of swing voters. I interview and talk to people about this stuuf as a job, I am getting a far more pro LNP feeling than is suggested here. I hate it though cause I don’t like the LNP. Just being honest.

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