ALP 10.8%
Incumbent MP
Judy Spence, since 2009. Previously Member for Mount Gravatt 1989-2009.
Geography
Brisbane. Sunnybank covers southern parts of the City of Brisbane, specifically the suburbs of Sunnybank, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains and Robertson, and parts of Macgregor, Eight Mile Plains, Runcorn and Sunnybank Hills.
History
The seat of Sunnybank first existed from 1992 to 2001, and was restored at the 2009 election.
The seat was won in 1992 by the ALP’s Stephen Robertson. In 2001 he moved to the new seat of Stretton. He has served as a minister since 1999.
The ALP’s Judy Spence won the seat of Mount Gravatt in 1989. She defeated the former National Party MP. Spence became a minister in the Labor government in 1998, serving in the ministry until the 2009 election.
In 2009, Mount Gravatt was abolished and Spence won the new seat of Sunnybank.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Judy Spence is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Meg Bishop. The LNP is running Mark Stewart. The Greens are running Gordon King.
- Matt Darragh (Family First)
- Gordon King (Greens)
- Mark Stewart (Liberal National)
- Meg Bishop (Labor)
Political situation
Sunnybank would normally be considered safe with a 10.8% margin, but in the current environment the seat will be a contest.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Judy Spence | ALP | 14,398 | 54.5 | -3.7 |
| Marie Jackson | LNP | 9,358 | 35.4 | +4.7 |
| Matthew Ryan-Sykes | GRN | 2,101 | 8.0 | +0.1 |
| Bruce Spiers | IND | 355 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Peter Flaws | IND | 204 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Judy Spence | ALP | 15,261 | 60.8 | -4.4 |
| Marie Jackson | LNP | 9,845 | 39.2 | +4.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Sunnybank have been divided into three areas: Acacia Ridge in the west, Runcorn in the southeast and Macgregor in the northeast.
The ALP’s vote varied from 62% in Acacia Ridge to 52% in Macgregor.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Macgregor | 52.1 | 37.8 | 7.8 | 9,187 | 34.8 |
| Runcorn | 54.1 | 36.0 | 8.1 | 7,448 | 28.2 |
| Acacia Ridge | 62.3 | 27.9 | 7.6 | `3,892 | 14.7 |
| Other votes | 53.7 | 36.0 | 8.3 | 5,889 | 22.3 |
Meg Bishop has been preselected for Labor, Anna Bligh’s choice for candidate.
On federal results, this would be an LNP seat with a margin of 0.4%.
My prediction: LNP gain, the ALP have a lot of bark on the margin here, but the LNP have knowledge of a higher potential vote for them.
Yet another narrow LNP gain, especially with the retirement of the Labor MP.