ALP 8.1%
Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Innisfail and the southern suburbs of Cairns, Miriwinni, Babinda, Bellenden Ker, Deerul, Gordonvale, Edmonton and parts of White Rock. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of Cairns and Cassowary Coast local government areas.
History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.
The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.
In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.
Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.
At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.
Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.
At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt has served as Minister for Disabilites, Mental Health and Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Parterships since February 2011.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Curtis Pitt is running for re-election. The LNP is running Robyn Quick. Katter’s Australian Party is running Damian Byrnes, who polled 12.9% as an independent in 2009.
- Jim Cavill (Greens)
- Damian Byrnes (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Curtis Pitt (Labor)
- Robyn Quick (Liberal National)
Political situation
Pitt’s margin of 8.1% is substantial but current polling makes this seat highly vulnerable to the LNP. As a seat that One Nation won in 1998, it could well be a strong seat for Bob Katter’s new party.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | ALP | 11,754 | 48.0 | -11.8 |
| Vic Black | LNP | 8,186 | 33.4 | -6.8 |
| Damian Byrnes | IND | 3,168 | 12.9 | +12.9 |
| Hugh Whitehouse | GRN | 1,373 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | ALP | 12,876 | 58.1 | -1.7 |
| Vic Black | LNP | 9,293 | 41.9 | +1.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three areas. Booths in the south near Innisfail have been grouped together, as have booths in the north near Cairns. The remaining booths in the centre have been grouped together.
The ALP outpolled the LNP in all three areas, with the margin varying from 22.2% in Cairns to 5.7% in the centre of the seat. The vote for independent Damian Byrnes varied from 10.8% in the Innisfail area to 14.9% in the centre of the seat.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | IND % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cairns | 51.1 | 28.9 | 14.1 | 10,807 | 44.1 |
| Central | 42.9 | 37.2 | 14.9 | 5,052 | 20.6 |
| Innisfail | 46.3 | 37.9 | 10.8 | 4,490 | 18.3 |
| Other votes | 48.2 | 35.9 | 9.8 | 4,132 | 16.9 |
My prediction: LNP gain, although the KAP will most likely poll substantially and pose a challenge.
LNP should gain. Probably a very tight 3-way on the primary vote.
Looks like Mulgrave is the Cessnock of Qld2012. Conservative vote split badly enough to let Labor squeak back in.
If Curtis Pitt holds this seat for Labor, he’s a miracle worker.
Nah, just a very lucky fellow!