Keppel – Queensland 2012

ALP 7.6%

Incumbent MP
Paul Hoolihan, since 2004.

Geography
North Queensland. Keppel covers regional areas along the coast to the north of Rockhampton, including Yeppoon, northern suburbs of Rockhampton, and the Keppel islands.

History
Keppel was first contested at the 1992 election. A former seat with the same name had existed from 1912 to 1960. The current incarnation was held by the National Party until 2004 and has been held by the ALP since 2004.

The seat was first won in 1992 by National Party MP Vince Lester. He had previously held the seats of Belyando and Peak Downs, having first been elected in 1974. Lester had served as a minister in the National Party government from 1983 until 1989.

Lester retired in 2004, and Keppel was won by ALP candidate Paul Hoolihan. Hoolihan won re-election in 2006 and 2009.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Paul Hoolihan is running for re-election. The LNP is running Bruce Young. Katter’s Australian Party is running Luke Hargreaves.

Political situation
Keppel was held by the National Party throughout the Labor government of the 1990s and the early Beattie years. While the 7.6% margin is solid, the seat could easily fall to the LNP.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Hoolihan ALP 14,841 52.6 +1.1
Steve McKenna LNP 11,118 39.4 +3.5
Paul Bambrick GRN 2,267 8.0 +5.1

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Paul Hoolihan ALP 15,674 57.6 -0.5
Steve McKenna LNP 11,527 42.4 +0.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Keppel have been divided into three areas. Booths near Rockhampton have been grouped together, with the remainder grouped into North and Central.

The ALP won the most primary votes in all three areas. The ALP won over 59% in Rockhampton, while they won a 49.5% in the centre and 45.9% in the north.

Polling booths in Keppel at the 2009 state election. Rockhampton in orange, Central in green, North in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Rockhampton 59.2 34.5 6.3 10,387 36.8
North 45.9 43.7 10.5 7,788 27.6
Central 49.5 42.0 8.5 3,470 12.3
Other votes 51.7 40.6 7.7 6,581 23.3
Labor primary votes in Keppel at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Keppel at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in the Rockhampton part of Keppel at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Rockhampton part of Keppel at the 2009 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. I think this one will go back to the LNP, however, does anyone know if there have been any significant demographic changes in the area since 2004?

  2. This seat will be fascinating on election day, I predict only a few hundred votes will be in it. Paul Hoolihan is very well liked in his electorate, yet the federal election showed strong swings to the LNP in these booths.

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