Indooroopilly – Queensland 2012

LNP 5.9%

Incumbent MP
Scott Emerson, since 2009.

Geography
Brisbane. Indooroopilly is the only seat that crosses the Brisbane River, covering inner western suburbs on both sides of the river, specifically Chelmer, Graceville, Tennyson, Sherwood, Fig Tree Pocket, Indooroopilly, Taringa and St Lucia.

History
The seat of Indooroopilly has existed since 1992. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001, then by the ALP from 2001 to 2008. In 2008 the sitting member joined the Greens, and in 2009 he lost to the LNP.

The seat was first won in 1992 by former Liberal leader Denver Beanland. He had held the seat of Toowong since 1986, and had been leader of the Liberal Party until 1991.

Beanland served as Attorney-General from 1996 to 1998, and lost his seat in 2001.

Ronan Lee won Indooroopilly for the ALP in 2001. He was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, and was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2006 election.

In 2008, Lee resigned from the ALP and joined the Greens. He contested Indooroopilly for the Greens in 2009. The seat was the best result for the Greens in the state, but Lee’s vote was much lower than he had won in past elections as the Labor candidate. Lee narrowly missed out on coming in the top two, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Scott Emerson.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Scott Emerson is running for re-election. The Greens are running Charles Worringham.

Political situation
The seat of Indooroopilly should be safely retained by Emerson for the LNP.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Emerson LNP 11,570 44.5 +2.3
Sarah Warner ALP 6,907 26.5 -14.4
Ronan Lee GRN 6,749 25.9 +9.0
John Burkett DSQ 802 3.1 +3.1

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Emerson LNP 12,891 55.9 +8.6
Sarah Warner ALP 10,184 44.1 -8.6

Booth breakdown
Booths in Indooroopilly have been divided into three areas. Booths on the southern side of the river have been grouped as Graceville. Booths close to the river on the northern side have been grouped as Indooroopilly. Booths further north have been grouped as Toowong.

The LNP outpolled the ALP and the Greens by a substantial margin in all three areas, with the LNP varying from 46.3% in Indooroopilly to 43.2% in Graceville. The ALP outpolled the Greens in Graceville (by 1.2%) and Toowong (by 0.3%), while the Greens outpolled the ALP by 0.6% in Indooroopilly.

Polling booths in Indooroopilly at the 2009 state election. Toowong in blue, Indooroopilly in green, Graceville in orange.

 

Voter group LNP % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Indooroopilly 46.3 25.0 25.6 7,618 29.3
Graceville 43.2 27.4 26.2 6,631 25.5
Toowong 44.0 26.5 26.2 5,385 20.7
Other votes 43.9 27.5 25.9 6,394 24.6
Liberal National primary votes in Indooroopilly at the 2009 state election.
Labor primary votes in Indooroopilly at the 2009 state election.
Greens primary votes in Indooroopilly at the 2009 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. This will be an interesting seat to watch on the night. While there is little doubt that Scott Emerson will hold on the big question will be how much of a swing he will get. Looking at the primary votes here the left got above 50% split between the ALP and Greens. This could be one of those seats that falls well below the statewide swing.

  3. From Poll Bludger: Labor are running “20-year-old Oscar Schlamowitz”, one of a bundle of ALP candidates who were born when Wayne Goss was premier. With confidence like that, they could finish third here if the Greens hang onto most of Lee’s vote and/or the Libs take a lot more of Labor’s vote. I can’t imagine it’d go to preferences.

  5. In the 2010 by-election for the city ward of Walter Taylor after the last federal election (the sitting councilor was elected to the lower house), the Greens were placed comfortably 2nd, nearly 6% ahead of Labor, and Labor had a more convincing candidate that time. The ward has a substantial overlap with the state seat and the Greens have a good candidate. Since Labor can’t win, there’s every incentive for voters of a progressive bent to vote 1 Greens — not only to support the Greens candidate, but to protest about the drift of the Qld Labor government.

Comments are closed.