Capalaba – Queensland 2012

ALP 9.7%

Incumbent MP
Michael Choi, since 2001.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Capalaba covers eastern parts of Greater Brisbane in Redland local council area, specifically the suburbs of Capalaba, Alexandra Hills and parts of Birkdale and Thorneside.

History
The seat of Capalaba was created in 1992. At every election the seat has been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won by Jim Elder, who had won the seat of Manly in 1989 and moved to Capalaba after his original seat was abolished.

Elder joined the Goss ministry in 1992 and served in it until the government was defeated in 1996. He became Deputy Opposition Leader in 1996 and became Deputy Premier in the Beattie government in 1998.

Elder resigned from the ministry and from the ALP in 2000 after adverse findings against him from the Shepherdson Inquiry into branch-stacking. He served out the remainder of his term as an independent until retiring in 2001.

At the 2001 election, the ALP’s Michael Choi was elected in Capalaba. He was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009 and now serves as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Bligh government.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Michael Choi is running for re-election. The LNP is running Steve Davies. The Greens are running Penny Allman-Payne. Katter’s Australian Party is running Graeme Moorhouse.

Political situation
Capalaba has a solid margin of 9.7% but with current polling couldn’t be considered safe.

2009 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Choi ALP 15,286 53.3 -4.2
Paul Gleeson LNP 10,591 36.9 +6.5
Chad Kirby GRN 2,817 9.8 -1.3

2009 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Choi ALP 16,354 59.7 -5.1
Paul Gleeson LNP 11,055 40.3 +5.1

Booth breakdown
Booths in Capalaba have been divided into three areas. From north to south, these are Birkdale, Central and Capalaba.

The ALP won a majority of the vote in all three areas. The ALP vote is higher and the LNP and Greens vote is lower in Central and Capalaba compared to Birkdale.

Polling booths in Capalaba at the 2009 state election. Birkdale in green, Central in orange, Capalaba in blue.

 

Voter group ALP % LNP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
Central 54.5 35.6 9.9 9,553 33.3
Capalaba 55.1 36.5 8.4 7,133 24.9
Birkdale 50.8 38.2 11.1 6,776 23.6
Other votes 51.9 38.2 9.9 5,232 18.2
Labor primary votes in Capalaba at the 2009 state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Capalaba at the 2009 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. On federal results, this would be an LNP seat with a 6.3% margin, although I think Andrew Laming’s personal vote in Bowman would be a factor. Still see this going to the LNP though.

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