ALP 4.9%
Incumbent MP
Christine Smith, since 2001.
Geography
Gold Coast. Burleigh covers the southern Gold Coast suburbs of Palm Beach, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Varsity Lakes and Miami.
History
The seat of Burleigh was created for the 1992 election. It was held by the National Party until 2001 and has been held by the ALP since then.
Judy Gamin won the seat for the National Party in 1992. She had first been elected to the seat of South Coast at a 1988 by-election following the retirement of former National Party minister Russ Hinze.
South Coast was abolished in 1992 and replaced by Burleigh, and Gamin won the new seat. She was re-elected in 1995 and 1998 before losing to the ALP’s Christine Smith at the landslide 2001 election. Smith has held the seat ever since.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Christine Smith is running for re-election. The LNP is again running 2009 candidate Michael Hart. The Greens are running Jane Power. Katter’s Australian Party is running Dean Fisher.
- Christine Smith (Labor)
- Michael Hart (Liberal National)
- Dean Fisher (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Jeremy Fredericks (Family First)
- Jane Power (Greens)
Political situation
Burleigh was only won by the ALP at a landslide election in 2001, and will be vulnerable to the LNP at the upcoming election.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christine Smith | ALP | 12,637 | 46.8 | -6.1 |
| Michael Hart | LNP | 10,498 | 38.9 | +1.6 |
| Anja Light | GRN | 2,065 | 7.6 | -2.2 |
| Bryden Elssmann | DSQ | 807 | 3.0 | +2.5 |
| Jeremy Fredericks | FF | 516 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Ray Sperring | IND | 476 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christine Smith | ALP | 13,733 | 54.9 | -3.9 |
| Michael Hart | LNP | 11,281 | 45.1 | +3.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Burleigh have been divided into three areas: Palm Beach in the south, Burleigh-Miami along the northern coast, and Varsity in the west.
The ALP outpolled the LNP in all three areas, by a margin varying from 4.5% in Palm Beach to 19.7% in Varsity.
| Voter group | ALP % | LNP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Burleigh-Miami | 46.0 | 37.5 | 8.4 | 9,513 | 26.0 |
| Varsity | 53.2 | 33.9 | 6.3 | 3,989 | 10.9 |
| Palm Beach | 44.3 | 39.8 | 8.6 | 3,829 | 10.4 |
| Other votes | 45.9 | 41.9 | 7.1 | 19,320 | 52.7 |
Will be interesting to see if it’s third time lucky for Michael Hart having run here twice before and failed. Christine Smith to her credit has done very well holding on here in a traditionally conservative seat. This election though it should revert to it’s old voting habits.
My prediction: LNP gain
LNP gain.
Gold Coast Sun Wed 21 March 2012 (the local paper) “Our tipster” conclusion: Likely ALP win. Seems at odds with other commentators but there you have it.
It’s one to contemplate for the punter…. and one to watch on the night.