Penrith – NSW 2011

LIB 16.5%

Incumbent MP
Stuart Ayres, since 2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. The seat of Penrith covers central suburbs of the City of Penrith and parts of the lower Blue Mountains. Suburbs include Penrith, Jamisontown, Kingswood, Cranebrook, Emu Plains, Leonay, Lapstone, Glenbrook and parts of Blaxland.

History
The seat of Penrith has existed since 1973. While it is currently Liberal-held, it has been won by the ALP at every general election except for 1988.

Penrith was first won in 1973 by Ron Mulock, who had won the marginal seat of Nepean in 1971. Mulock moved to the new seat of St Marys in 1981, holding it until its abolition in 1988. Mulock served as a minister through the entire Labor government from 1976 to 1988, serving as Deputy Premier from 1984.

Penrith was won in 1981 by Peter Anderson. He had won Nepean back from the Liberal Party in 1978 before moving to the safer seat of Penrith in 1981. Anderson had served as a minister from 1982, and in 1986 he challenged Barrie Unsworth for the Labor leadership upon the retirement of Neville Wran.

Anderson lost Penrith in a shock result at the 1988 election. He returned to Parliament at a by-election for Liverpool in 1989, holding the seat until 1995.

Guy Matheson won Penrith for the Liberal Party in 1988. He lost the seat in 1991.

Matheson lost in 1991 to Penrith mayor Faye Lo Po’, running for the ALP. She served as a minister from 1995 to 2003, when she retired from Penrith.

Penrith was won in 2003 by Penrith councillor Karyn Paluzzano. She was appointed a parliamentary secretary in 2008.

In 2010, she faced an inquiry by the Independent Commission Against Corruption over accusations that she had falsified pay forms. Following an adverse finding, she resigned from Parliament in May 2010.

The subsequent by-election was won by Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres. He won the seat with an unprecedented 25.7% swing, turning a 9% ALP margin into a 16% Liberal margin.

Candidates

Political situation
Penrith has traditionally been a safe Labor seat. While Ayres will probably not retain the 16.5% margin achieved at the by-election, he should be able to win re-election.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Karyn Paluzzano ALP 19,983 48.7 +2.3
Tricia Hitchen LIB 13,368 32.6 -3.0
Andrew Green CDP 2,544 6.2 +3.4
Suzie Wright GRN 2,285 5.6 -0.3
Geoff Brown IND 1,468 3.6 +3.6
Andrew Mavin AAFI 1,052 2.6 +2.7
Geraldine Waters DEM 365 0.9 0.0

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Karyn Paluzzano ALP 22,020 59.2 +2.6
Tricia Hitchen LIB 15,146 40.8 -2.6

2010 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stuart Ayres LIB 19,856 51.5 +18.9
John Thain ALP 9,437 24.5 -24.2
Suzie Wright GRN 4,679 12.1 +6.6
Andrew Green CDP 1,692 4.4 -1.8
Noel Selby IND 1,047 2.7 +2.7
Mick Saunders IND 766 2.0 +2.0
David Leyonhjelm ORP 721 1.9 +1.9
Jose Sanz DEM 358 0.9 0.0

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stuart Ayres LIB 21,831 66.5 +25.7
John Thain ALP 11,009 33.5 -25.7

Booth breakdown
Booths in Penrith have been divided into two areas, divided by the Nepean river. The eastern area includes the centre of Penrith and the suburbs of Jamisontown, Kingswood and Cranebrook. The western area covers Emu Plains and Leonay in the City of Penrith and Lapstone and Glenbrook in the Blue Mountains.

At the 2007 election the ALP polled almost 63% in the east and just under 53% in the west. In 2010 the Liberals polled 71% in the west and 63.6% in the east. The Greens vote increased from 7.6% to 15.7% in the west and from 4% to 10.8% in the east.

Polling booths in Penrith at the 2007 state election. East in green, West in blue.

2007 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % CDP % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
East 4.0 5.7 62.8 21,701 52.8
West 7.6 7.5 52.9 12,305 30.0
Other votes 6.8 5.4 59.3 7,059 17.2

2010 by-election breakdown

Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
East 10.8 63.6 21,269 55.2
West 15.7 71.0 12,285 31.9
Other votes 9.2 67.8 5,002 13.0
Two-party-preferred votes in Penrith at the 2007 state election.
Christian Democratic Party primary votes in Penrith at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Penrith at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2010 Penrith by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2010 Penrith by-election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Thing here is everyone pumped a crazy amount of resources into the seat in the by-election, I’ll be interested to see if the March result shows a different result and if so, how much difference. I don’t think Ayres is going anywhere, but I wonder if the Labor vote will stay steady where it is or hit another low or if the Greens can stay steady on 12% or higher.

  3. When looking at history, there are plenty of examples where the protest vote is exercised at a by-election, and many votes return to the fold at the general election. Think about seats like Cunningham and Ryan.

    This will probably be a Liberal win by a couple of percent.

  5. DB – Take a look at Canberra in 1995. Libs won that with a huge swing in the byelection, but that swing was wiped to nothing 12 months later in the Federal election.

    Cunningham gave Greens their first seat in parliament, yet the greens finished 3rd in the count at the general election.

    Most by-elections are famous for substantial swings and surprising outcomes, because nothing is at stake. The government wont fall and the opposition wont be any closer to taking the leadership.

    The people of Penrith were asked to send a message and they did – big time. Now that the message has been sent, voters are more likely to vote how they ordinarily would had the by-election not been called to begin with.

    They were also overwhelmed with resources from both sides of politics. Resources that have now been distributed all over the state.

    There is no way the Libs will keep the by-election margin in tact. Nor should they expect this. No way Kingswood will produce anything close to a 67% 2PP. This is an area that labor lost for the first time at the by-election.

    The sting in the protest is gone. I say Lib win by no more than 6%

Comments are closed.