Coffs Harbour – NSW 2011

NAT 17.6%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Fraser, since 1990.

Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers most of the City of Coffs Harbour, and a small part of Bellingen Shire.

History
Coffs Harbour has existed since 1981, and has always been held by the National Party.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Matt Singleton. He had been the Member for Clarence since 1971, but moved to Coffs Harbour when the redistribution made his former seat a notional Labor seat. He briefly served as a minister from 1988 to 1989, and retired in 1990.

The 1990 Coffs Harbour by-election was won by National Party candidate Andrew Fraser. Fraser is a controversial figure. He achieved notoriety in 2005 when he chased and grabbed Labor minister Joe Tripodi on the floor of the Legislative Assembly. He served briefly as deputy leader of the National Party from 2007 to 2008, and now sits on the backbenches.

Candidates

Political situation
Coffs Harbour is a very safe Nationals seat.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Fraser NAT 22,351 52.0 +11.8
David Kennedy ALP 8,898 20.7 -1.0
Keith Rhoades IND 6,421 14.9 +4.9
Rodney Degens GRN 3,205 7.5 +1.5
Deborah Lions CDP 1,592 3.7 +0.4
Gerry Evic AAFI 550 1.3 +1.3

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Fraser NAT 24,884 67.6 +5.7
David Kennedy ALP 11,914 32.4 -5.7

Booth breakdown
Booths in Coffs Harbour have been divided into four areas. Those booths in Bellingen Shire have been grouped as “South”. Booths in the City of Coffs Harbour have been divided into three areas. Booths in Coffs Harbour itself have been grouped together. Those to the south of this area have been grouped as “Central”, while the remainder of the seat is grouped as “North”.

The vote for the National Party varied from almost 69% in Coffs Harbour to under 62% in the south. Independent candidate Keith Rhoades came third across the seat, polling over 20% in the Central area.

Polling booths in Coffs Harbour at the 2007 state election. South in orange, Central in blue, North in green, Coffs Harbour in yellow.
Voter group GRN % IND % NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Coffs Harbour 6.7 12.8 68.8 12,997 30.2
North 9.4 12.1 66.5 10,320 24.0
Central 6.3 21.1 68.1 9,589 22.3
South 8.4 15.2 61.8 2,529 5.9
Other votes 7.3 14.5 68.2 7,582 17.6
Two-party-preferred votes in Coffs Harbour at the 2007 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Coffs Harbour urban area at the 2007 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Coffs Harbour Mayor Keith Rhoades has contested the seat at both of the past two elections, but recently announced that he definitely would not stand this year. In 2003 he was outpolled by another councillor, Jan Strom, who gained 18% of the primary vote and after preferences reduced Fraser’s 2CP margin to under 7%.

  4. Not sure who will come second on primaries here. Templeton wouldn’t have the profile of Rhoades. The Greens could even finish second on primaries if they repeat their results at the 2008 council elections.

    Greens candidate Rodney Degens and his fellow Greens councillor Mark Graham have recently received written death threats.

    Antony’s guide also notes that the CDP’s regular candidate in this area, Deborah Lions, is running for them again.

Comments are closed.