|Term expires 2011||Term expires 2014|
|George Brandis (LIB)||Ron Boswell (NAT)|
|Barnaby Joyce (NAT)|| Sue Boyce (LIB)|
|Joe Ludwig (ALP)||Mark Furner (ALP)|
|Jan McLucas (ALP)|| John Hogg (ALP)|
|Brett Mason (LIB)||Ian MacDonald (LIB)|
|Russell Trood (LIB)||Claire Moore (ALP)|
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
The ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes. Following the distribution of Family First preferences, Ron Boswell of the Nationals, running on the joint Coalition ticket, went over quota, and the remaining votes were as follows:
- Ron Boswell (NAT) – 1.1461 quotas
- Mark Furner (ALP) – 0.7541
- Larissa Waters (GRN) – 0.7429
- Pauline Hanson – 0.3554
Most of Boswell’s preferences flowed to the Greens, putting her in first place, and showing the following figures:
- Waters – 0.8734
- Furner – 0.7554
- Hanson – 0.3697
Hanson was excluded, and the vast majority of her preferences flowed to the ALP, giving them the seat, with the following figures:
- Furner – 1.0793
- Waters – 0.9026
Senator George Brandis is running #1 on the LNP ticket, with Barnaby Joyce running #2. Senator Brett Mason has been preselected for the marginal third seat while Senator Russell Trood has been relegated to the unwinnable fourth position.
The Greens are running Larissa Waters, who ran in 2007. The Socialist Alliance is running indigenous activist Sam Watson.
The ALP ticket consists of:
- Sitting Senator Joe Ludwig
- Sitting Senator Jan McLucas
- David Smith of the Australian Services Union.
In a half-Senate election, none of the minor party right-wing candidates have much of a chance of winning without very strong preference flows. It is relatively simple to calculate that the Greens need a swing of approximately 0.3% away from the ALP towards the Greens+Lib/Nat to give the third ALP seat to the Greens, assuming the Coalition repeats its decision to preference the Greens over the ALP. It is much more difficult to calculate the swing from the Coalition to ALP+Greens, due to the presence of Pauline Hanson. While Pauline Hanson specifically went out of her way to put just Ron Boswell down below the ALP candidates on her ticket (whilst putting other Coalition candidates higher), it’s probably safer to assume that those voters would end up with candidates putting the Coalition ahead of the Greens or ALP. Assuming that all of Hanson’s votes would go to the Coalition ahead of the Greens, this would produce these figures:
- Coalition #3 – 1.5215
- ALP #3 + Greens – 1.4970
In order to give a seat to both the third ALP candidate and first Greens candidate, you would need a swing of almost 7.5% from the Coalition to the ALP+Greens. Considering how large the swing to the ALP in 2007, and the fact that left-wing candidates have never won a majority of Senate seats in Queensland, this seems implausible, which suggests that the Greens could only win a Queensland Senate seat by a swing to the Coalition or a large increase in the Greens primary vote.
In the case of a double dissolution, the ALP and Coalition would each win five seats on primary votes, as well as one Greens candidate. Using the 2007 voting figures, the Coalition would win a sixth seat on Family First and Democrats preferences ahead of Pauline Hanson. However, Hanson polled two thirds of a double dissolution quota in 2007, and if those votes went to another minor party right-wing candidate with less political baggage, they could win election. If Family First had polled slightly higher, they would have overtaken the sixth Coalition candidate, then defeat Hanson on Democrats preferences.