NAT 15.2%
Incumbent MP
Barnaby Joyce, since 2013. Previously Senator for Queensland 2005-2013.
Geography
The New England region of northern NSW. The main towns include Tamworth, Armidale and Glen Innes. New England covers Armidale Dumaresq, Glen Innes Severn, Guyra, Gwydir, Inverell, Liverpool Plains, Muswellbrook, Tamworth, Tenterfield, Upper Hunter, Uralla and Walcha council areas.
Redistribution
New England expanded to the north-west and south, taking in the remainder of the Gwydir council area from Parkes and the Muswellbrook council area from Hunter. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 16.2% to 15.4%.
New England is an original federation electorate, and has been mostly won by conservative parties. The seat was held by the Country Party and National Party from 1920 until 2001, when it was won by independent Tony Windsor.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate William Sawers, who had previously been a state MP since 1885. In 1903 he was defeated by Free Trade candidate Edmund Lonsdale, who himself was defeated in 1906 by ALP candidate Francis Foster.
Foster is the only Labor candidate to ever win New England, and was reelected in 1910 before losing the seat in 1913 to Liberal candidate Percy Abbott. Abbott was a serving AIF officer at the time, and served as a Lieutenant Colonel at Gallipoli in 1915 while serving as a member of the House of Representatives. He retired from the House of Representatives in 1919. He later ran for the Senate for the Country Party in 1922 and held a Senate seat from 1925 to 1929.
The seat was won in 1919 by Alexander Hay. Like Abbott, Hay was supported by the Farmers and Settlers Association, and when they formed the Country Party in 1920 he became one of their first MPs. Hay’s time with the Country Party was unhappy and he was expelled in 1922 for voting against the party. He stood at the 1922 election as an independent, losing to official Country Party candidate Victor Thompson.
Thompson held New England for a long period, serving as a minister in conservative federal governments from 1937 to 1940, but lost his seat at the 1940 election, when he was challenged by two other Country Party candidates, and was defeated by Joe Abbott.
Joe Abbott served as a minister in Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden’s wartime governments, and held the seat until his retirement in 1949. He was succeeded by David Drummond, who had been a state MP since 1920. He held the seat until his retirement in 1963.
The seat was won in 1963 by Ian Sinclair. Sinclair joined Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1965 and served as a minister right up until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. He returned to the ministry in 1975 and served for the entirety of the Fraser government, barring a period in 1979 and 1980 when he stepped down due to allegations of forgery in relation to his father’s will.
Following the defeat of the Fraser government National Country Party leader Doug Anthony resigned in 1984, and Sinclair succeeded him. In 1989, he was replaced as leader by Charles Blunt, and he went to the backbench. He remained there until 1998, when he served briefly as Speaker in the final months of the first term of the Howard government, before retiring in 1998.
In 1998, New England was won by Nationals candidate Stuart St Clair, whose time in the seat was short-lived. He was defeated in 2001 by independent candidate Tony Windsor, who had held the state seat of Tamworth as an independent since 1991, when he had been deselected as a Nationals candidate.
Windsor held the seat with margins over 70% at the 2004, 2007 and 2010 elections.
After the 2010 election, Windsor found himself in the balance of power, and decided to support Julia Gillard’s minority Labor government, a decision that was controversial in country areas including New England, which usually lean towards the conservative side of politics.
In 2013, the Nationals preselected their Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce, to run in New England. Joyce was at the time a senator representing Queensland. Windsor announced his retirement shortly after, and Joyce was elected in New England with relative ease, ending twelve years of an independent hold on the seat.
Joyce was elected deputy leader of the Nationals shortly after moving to the House, and in early 2016 was elected leader of the Nationals, and thus Deputy Prime Minister. He won a second term as member for New England in 2016, seeing off an attempted return by former MP Tony Windsor.
Barnaby Joyce was caught up in a rash of politicians who were found to hold dual citizenship in 2017. He was found to have failed to meet constitutional obligations by the High Court in October 2017, triggering a December 2017 by-election, which he won easily.
Joyce was forced to resign as Nationals leader in early 2018. He was re-elected in New England in 2019 and returned to the Nationals leadership in June 2021. Joyce retained his seat at the 2022 election, and resigned as Nationals leader shortly after.
Assessment
New England is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barnaby Joyce | Nationals | 51,036 | 52.5 | -2.4 | 50.8 |
| Laura Hughes | Labor | 18,056 | 18.6 | +5.8 | 19.9 |
| Carol Sparks | Greens | 7,524 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7.5 |
| Matt Sharpham | Independent | 7,659 | 7.9 | +7.9 | 7.1 |
| Richard Thomas | One Nation | 4,570 | 4.7 | +4.7 | 5.3 |
| Pavlo Samios | Liberal Democrats | 3,174 | 3.3 | +3.3 | 3.0 |
| Cindy Anne Duncan | United Australia | 2,545 | 2.6 | -2.0 | 2.9 |
| Natasha Ledger | Independent | 2,708 | 2.8 | -0.4 | 2.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 6,494 | 6.3 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Barnaby Joyce | Nationals | 64,622 | 66.4 | -1.2 | 65.2 |
| Laura Hughes | Labor | 32,650 | 33.6 | +1.2 | 34.8 |
Booths have been divided into six areas. The two main urban areas of Armidale and Tamworth have been grouped together, separately from rural booths in the surrounding areas.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in five out of six areas, ranging from 60.7% in Tamworth to 72.4% in the north. The ALP won 52.5% in Armidale.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 64.7 | 12,187 | 11.2 |
| Tamworth | 60.7 | 12,132 | 11.2 |
| North | 72.4 | 10,334 | 9.5 |
| West | 72.1 | 5,924 | 5.5 |
| Armidale | 47.5 | 5,517 | 5.1 |
| East | 70.6 | 3,644 | 3.4 |
| Pre-poll | 65.7 | 47,795 | 44.1 |
| Other votes | 65.3 | 10,907 | 10.1 |
Election results in New England at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and independent candidates.
They basically prefernce against the partythey hate the most. They’re not so much referencing zkAP as they are referencing against the LNP but ONP are seen as more right of LNP and if they did the greens would use it against them to scrape votes off their left flank
@SpaceFish
“Barnaby Joyce looks set to join One Nation this really fuels the theory that LNP are on the verge of imploding.”
So much for the idea that Joyce was retrurning to the leadership.
Likely that he wasn’t being preselected again anyway, presumably he’ll go to the crossbench when Parliament resumes next year?
What’s the Possibility of the Liberals contesting New England next election
Doubtful. This is Nat heartland their resources are better spent elsewhere. They’d be better off contesting Richmond.
There is a reasonable likelihood that a Labor + Greens combination would come third in New England – that is assuming Barnaby runs again. There might also be the opportunity for a Teal to come in and try and run up the middle. The big question is – if Barnaby defects to One Nation who else might go – Matt Canavan (please)? Anybody else. We might be seeing the great right wing shuffle – some Nats (or even Liberal LNP MPs) go to ON, some Libs to the Nats or could we end up with some Libs joining up with the Teals (in a new grouping) and an across the board merger as the LNP at a national level rather than just Qld. Or if some rightwing Libs join the Nats – Antic or Pasin – would some Nats go the other way and join the Libs?
A possibility is that he runs as an independent. Unlike Andrew Gee or Tony Windsor, he probably won’t get preferences from Labor or the Greens.
He might run for the Nationals if they get an anti-net zero leader like Matt Canavan or Michael McCormack or if David Littleproud changes his tune.
I am not going to make an endorsement, so don’t shoot the messenger, but this is interesting. Basically, discussing the scenario of a lot of Liberals defecting to the Nationals or ON.
https://youtu.be/0WdktH9-ZS4?si=-pkciwPEcFOGJHvA
I would think that the Liberals would. With Joyce out of the Nats, there is no agreement on seat allocation. He has some personal vote, but I can’t see ON being that competitive. The 2CP would be wild, though. That said, two years from now, who knows what the Liberals will look like for 2028? The moderates could win out, pushing some of the more far-right out of the party, or Hastie or someone like him could be the leader and try to run a right-wing policy offering. I won’t argue the rationale of that in this thread.
Switching to ON now would give Joyce a seat at the front of the crossbenches as a Party Leader.
He could use Question Time to build a tough but Woke persona that gives Labor/Greens cover to preference him.
It’s a waste of time and money better spent elsewhere then on seats you already control. It’s even more of a waste fighting your own coalition. That’s the equivalent of the US sending troops to Ireland during ww1.
Gympie he would probably get less question time. As a Nat he’s a member of the opposition and the opposition gets considerably more floor time then an ind
Apparently Joyce has confirmed he won’t recontest, sounds like a PHON Senate run might be on the cards instead. Nats retain
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-18/barnaby-joyce-will-not-recontest-new-england-at-election/105907524
It’s confirmed.
If joyce does run for senate in 2028 and is successful, he might be the first parliamentarian to return back to the same chamber he was originally elected to.
@Darth Vader
“Gympie he would probably get less question time. As a Nat he’s a member of the opposition and the opposition gets considerably more floor time then an ind”
He hasn’t asked any questions as a National so far this term, Katter has had 5 or 6, he’d get as many opportunities as Katter.
Latest is he’s not recontesting New England, he’d be a strong chance as a senate candidate, moreso if a DD is called.
Seems like he may be going the way of George Christensen, contest an unwinnable One Nation spot for the sweet payout, at the cost of taxpayers of course.
It is hard to see why they would allow him to stay in the party room as anything anybody said there could be used against them later. Unless he is still a member but disinvited to any party room meetings.
Interesting. One Nation has already proven it can win senate seats outside Qld, so I’d assume he’d be on the ticket to win over disaffected voters. Still the Nats will still win the seat so just rearranging the deck chairs.
The whole ‘running impossibly’ and getting a payout is such a rort.
@dan m one nation will probably win the last spot as they did this year. They have been chipping away atthe libs the same way the greens did labor. It won’t be long before we see one nation senators elected at every election in every state.
There is nothing to say that once he leaves he won’t go all Mark Latham and manage to offend everybody.
Joyce is leaving the party he committed to for another half its age. Seems like we’ve heard this one before.
Joyce is 57 hell be 61 by the next election. 6 years gets him to 67. So it’s not like he’s a spring chicken
@Redistributed
Joyce is leaving the National’s partyroom too.
Problem with him running for ON in the senate is Hanson will be 74 in 2028 and may call it quits, in the past One Nation has done poorly without her name recognition as a candidate.
My opinion, New England is wide open to a Teal candidate.
Joyce is not recontesting. I would strongly suspect he’ll run for the senate come 2028, in which case he’s probably a pretty good shot given his profile and the generally rising ON vote outside of QLD.
Whoops my thing wasn’t loading the comments on that for some reason apologies
Gympie i think 2028 will be Hanson last term. Katter is still going and he’s 80 though this will likely be his last term
AFR reports there’s expectation he will contest for the senate for One Nation. It also mentions him becoming the ON leader. I guess it means Pauline Hanson will retire next election. If he succeeds in winning a senate spot, it will be the first time One Nation wins a senate seat, outside of QLD, two elections in a row.
The wonder if Joyce could join Katters Australian Party as he largely focuses on social conservatism but given he also said once that he is an “Agrarian Socialist” as the issue with him being in One Nation is that it focuses on Ultra-Nationalism rather than Agrarianism?
Votante i expect one nation will win an extra spot in wa as well. Along with Ralph babe’s vic Dorian spot and possibly ousting Tammy Tyrell from Tasmnaia. Now that Jacqui Lambie no longer intends to field cnadidates
Let’s be honest, this is all about Barnaby and his ego. If he had been put on the front bench he would just stay with the Nationals.
When he is on the front bench he is a great coalitionist who compromises with the Liberal wets. When he isn’t, he agitates and goes rogue. Now he has no prospects to get back on the front bench, he quits.
Still not sure about this?
Well if he was legit and principled he would contest New England as the One Nation candidate, not go for a safe senate seat.
Barnaby has always been about Barnaby and no one else. Certainly not about policy.
Isn’t that how it is with most politicians LNP Insider? Joyce isn’t doing anything that anyone hasn’t done before that’s already tasted the action at the top. Personally I think if an elected quits the party they were elected under they should recontest it in a by election instead of getting almost 2.5 years of free fun but that’s a topic for another day.
I suspect we might see a lot of shuffling of seats going forward depending on how the expected Liberal leadership trend goes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more move to the Senate. If the right wing vote begins to fracture between the couple 2-3 parties.
Pols are like electricity they go through the paths of least resistance.
LNP he wouldn’t win and he knows it. Do you think Albo is there for the people? No Albo and probably 3/4 are there for themselves. They don’t care about you and me it’s about how they can further their own agenda.This isn’t a food bank they’re running or a homeless shelter. They are being paid to make decisions about you and I run out lives. All they care ago uj t is how they can get reelected and stay in power. They will sell their own mothers to do so.
Rocking rolling riding
I joined the gravy train…..what more can I say.
My snout firmly in the trough
6 months pay for barnaby